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Best Supporting Actor Oscar Discussions (Part 3)

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202779903

    Wasn’t the loss of Eddie Murphy due to the release of Norbit?

    No one film can sink a nominee’s chances. But what NORBIT may have done was remind voters that Murphy had been making almost nothing but NORBITs for a decade or more. Sure, he was a Hollywood veteran, but one who largely peaked in the earliest part of his movie career (NUTTY and BOWFINGER notwithstanding). And unlike Arkin (even a more established veteran with other nods in his past), Murphy had a reputation for being a prima donna and a jerk, albeit a talented one if he brought his A game (which, again, people had largely not seen for a while).

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1202779922

    No one film can sink a nominee’s chances. But what NORBIT may have done was remind voters that Murphy had been making almost nothing but NORBITs for a decade or more. Sure, he was a Hollywood veteran, but one who largely peaked in the earliest part of his movie career (NUTTY and BOWFINGER notwithstanding). And unlike Arkin (even a more established veteran with other nods in his past), Murphy had a reputation for being a prima donna and a jerk, albeit a talented one if he brought his A game (which, again, people had largely not seen for a while).

    I feel like they were already going to reward Arkin due to his overdue status and Murphy’s BAFTA snub, but Norbit sealed the deal.

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    DrewN92
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    #1202781997

    Does anyone know if anyone in this category has ever swept all of the precursors (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) and then lost the Oscar? I truly don’t expect Ali to lose, but given his recent win for Moonlight and the alleged passion behind Grant, I was wondering if historically that has ever happened in this category?

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    Monty
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    #1202782012

    Does anyone know if anyone in this category has ever swept all of the precursors (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) and then lost the Oscar? I truly don’t expect Ali to lose, but given his recent win for Moonlight and the alleged passion behind Grant, I was wondering if historically that has ever happened in this category?

    The only person who has won all the precursors and lost was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind. Eddie Murphy, Julie Christie and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York) won three and then lost the Oscar. Annette Bening won SAG and BAFTA for American Beauty but still lost Oscar.

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    Lagg
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    #1202782026

    Those anonymous Oscars ballots is really confusing people’s minds.

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    Monty
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    #1202782028

    Those anonymous Oscars ballots is really confusing people’s minds.

    Don’t take them too seriously. They can choose whatever ballot they want to show to make the race more exciting than it actually was or cover the real situation.

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    Edgar Blake
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    #1202783855

    I just re-watched “Green Book” and although I did not particularly like Ali, I do not think he could lose, cause:
    – If “Green Book” wins the best picture, it will NEED to win the screenplay award and an acting one, because it has no chances elsewhere;
    – If “Green Book” will NOT win best picture, this will be the only place to reward the film.

    So Ali will win, one way or another.

    The only chance of CYEFM? is in the screenplay category, but I don’t think the Academy will deny an Oscar to Spike Lee for his beautiful work on “BlackKklansman”, so I guess that CYEFM? will go home empty-handed and “BlackKklnamsna” will win at least one oscar

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    Jenna Cameras
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    #1202783954

    Don’t take them too seriously. They can choose whatever ballot they want to show to make the race more exciting than it actually was or cover the real situation.

    Question to Gold Derby:

    Is there any truth in the statement above. It kind of feels like there may be, as anonymous Oscar ballot reveals traditionally seem to indicate surprise voting patterns that don’t actually transpire come the Oscar ceremony telecast.

    For example, it seems from the (overall) small sample of anonymous ballot reveals that Richard E, Grant is a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actor. Is that what the actual buzz among Academy voters also indicates?

    I do happen to feel a Richard E. Grant victory is very plausible. The BAFTA loss isn’t everything.

    I don’t take them extremely seriously (though they are fascinating) but do ballot reveals tend to feed false hopes?

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    Jenna Cameras
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    #1202783960

    I just re-watched “Green Book” and although I did not particularly like Ali, I do not think he could lose, cause: – If “Green Book” wins the best picture, it will NEED to win the screenplay award and an acting one, because it has no chances elsewhere; – If “Green Book” will NOT win best picture, this will be the only place to reward the film. So Ali will win, one way or another. The only chance of CYEFM? is in the screenplay category, but I don’t think the Academy will deny an Oscar to Spike Lee for his beautiful work on “BlackKklansman”, so I guess that CYEFM? will go home empty-handed and “BlackKklnamsna” will win at least one oscar

    I understand your point but if I may suggest the flaw there is that the voting has already happened, in one voting window, and happened without knowledge of a future event. I mean that: Green Book winning, or not winning, Best Picture, was not known during the voting window.

    If the result of a vote for Best Picture demonstrated that Green Book had lost Best Picture, and then there was a subsequent vote for Best Supporting Actor, then, indeed, voting for Ali would be a way to reward the film.

     

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    jez89
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    #1202784046

    Still holding out hope of a Grant upset. Surely voters will remember that Ali only won two years ago and for a forgettable performance. Seems ridiculous that he could have two Oscars when actors like Pacino, Hopkins, Douglas etc only have one (albeit in lead). I really hope there’s a surprise in this category. I don’t know why more wasn’t made of his category fraud.

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    aahoto
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    #1202785624

    This director gets it. Just wanted to share this quote from a Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot:

    “I voted for [Can You Ever Forgive Me?’s] Richard E. Grant because of that scene at the end of the movie when he’s obviously sick, knows he’s going to be written about and begs for her to treat him with respect and dignity. It’s the most beautifully acted moment of the year.”

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/brutally-honest-oscar-ballot-roma-just-an-expensive-home-movie-1187668/item/best-supporting-actor-brutally-honest-oscars-ballot-19-1187671

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    deaetee
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    #1202785634

    I’m going with Ali in my predictions but I really do hope Grant pulls off an upset. Ali’s performance was okay at best (to me) but Grant’s performance was the only one out of the 5 performances that stuck with me the most.

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    aahoto
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    #1202786911

    Grant winning the Spirit Award, giving a very emotional, heartfelt speech. I’m so glad he won something this season – fingers crossed for a shocking upset tomorrow!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNVwFOVxN10

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    SHT L
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    #1202786925

    I know Ali is where the smartest money is right now. I don’t think he’s lost any of the big televised awards. But for some reason, I’m truly expecting a Grant upset. This will be my “no guts, no glory” pick.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202786929

    I am expecting for Green Book to win only one Oscar tomorrow, and it will be Mahersala Ali in the wrong category since for me he is definitely a lead actor. I want Richard E Grant to win but expect Ali to win.

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