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January 7, 2020 at 12:20 pm #1203269106
Anyone think I’m crazy for predicting both Pugh and Zhao to get in at this stage? This would be the third time this decade two actors without Globe or SAG noms are nominated in the same category, after Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhané Wallis for Best Actress in 2012, and Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo for Best Supporting Actor in 2015. The latter instance isn’t a good comparison as they were both bolstered by their films’ frontrunner statuses, but the Riva/Wallis scenario may be more apt to compare. Both had Critics Choice noms and Riva, like Pugh, got in at BAFTA and AACTA.
But ultimately I’m less interested in precedent than the state of the race this year. Dern and Robbie are the only locks. Johannson seems good for a supporting nom to go along with her lead bid as she has support from both major industry precursors and is in a Best Picture contender. I now think she’s a solid third. Lopez on the other hand might be hurt more by that BAFTA snub than many would like to admit; the snob factor affects AMPAS and BAFTA more than any other group, and while I’m less confident in predicting a JLo snub than I was for, say, Jennifer Aniston for Cake, it’s still a real possibility even with the LAFCA win. As for the remaining contenders, Bates probably isn’t happening (though I won’t rule her out completely), Bening was a Globes fluke that relied on early buzz which fizzled out, and Kidman has only SAG as a major precursor (discounting AACTA) which is almost never enough for an Oscar nom; in fact more people have been nominated after missing all four major precursors than with only SAG. And Bombshell might not be strong enough to carry Kidman along after missing PGA, WGA and ACE noms.
This all seems rather convoluted but it’s my justification for jumping off a cliff!
Edit: Forgot to add, Zhao attended the Globes (looking splendid!) and Awkwafina gave her a shoutout in her speech while the camera focused on her. Very calculated and very wise.January 7, 2020 at 12:21 pm #1203269114
Im going out on a big limb here
then im willing it into being and going for
Lee Jung Eun
i feel like Parasite is going to over preform
Check out my online store 🙂January 7, 2020 at 12:50 pm #1203269191
I just took Pugh out for Scarjo today. I still have Zhao in, though that’s mostly wishful thinking.
ZhaoJanuary 7, 2020 at 5:44 pm #1203269599
I never really thought people would vote for Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I never understood the argument that she could split support and end up snubbed because some may vote for her Hollywood performance instead of Bombshell.
I no longer have Robbie as a lock because BAFTA has shown that some voters are going to be marking her dow n for her Sharon Tate role. Partner that with the fact that some may prefer Kidman to her in Bombshell and I’m almost ready to predict a snub. And I LOVE her Bombshell performance…January 7, 2020 at 5:47 pm #1203269603
Margot will be plenty of people’s number 1 for her performance in Bombshell. She’s safe.January 7, 2020 at 6:11 pm #1203269613
There are over 3 billion Asians, so at some point, there had to be just two.
Lol. I don’t know if this sarcasm, but I would think two Asian actresses being nominated in the same category in the same year would be historical.January 7, 2020 at 6:39 pm #1203269631
LMAO did y’all forget that JLo presented way after her category was announced? Nice way to bash her.
Users are SO thirsty to hate on J.Lo that they’re spreading false information? Not surprised. Some of you are trashy.
As far as nominations are concerned…my predictions are:
My name is NOT Susan.January 7, 2020 at 6:43 pm #1203269637
I’ve been saying it for some time, but I’m predicting a JLo snub coming Oscar nomination morning. I’m not a hater of her work in Hustlers – in fact, I think she was dynamite – but she’s not the type of actress the AMPAS will go for after years and years of flops. I believe she will miss the nod, but if she stars another good project soon, then an Oscar nod/win might happen, because she will be under the radar and they will remember her turn. Missing a Golden Globe win and missing BAFTA Award nod might be a sign they don’t respect her enough just yet. I see Hustlers getting that last 5th spot for Best Adapted Screenplay instead of a BSActress nod – they will want to recognize the FEMALE auteur (Lorene Scafaria).
JLo is #6 for me right now. Then Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell is #7 (I believe she would have a SAG nod by now if they didn’t submit her in lead instead of supporting). Cho Yeo-jeong (Parasite) is my #8 and a category fraud for Ana de Armas (Knives Out) is my #9.
#1 Laura Dern, Marriage Story
#2 Margot Robbie, Bombshell
#3 Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
#4 Florence Pugh, Little Women
#5 Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
- This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Edgar Pereira.
- This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Edgar Pereira.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/January 7, 2020 at 6:49 pm #1203269644
The nominees will be:
Lopez is fighting to be included but the nomination is between those 6.
Bates and Shuzhen are Over.January 7, 2020 at 7:05 pm #1203269672
I also am predicting J Lo to be snubbed for Hustlers, and I hope I’m wrong because I’ve seen the film three times and it’s highly entertaining. I just think she may not garner enough high placements to make the cut. I’m probably wrong since she made SAG/GLOBE and won LAFCC. The BAFTA snub is somewhat telling even though the Brits won’t always pick the big American stars.
FINAL BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women
5. Lee Jung Eun, Parasite
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FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017January 7, 2020 at 7:30 pm #1203269683
I think people are excited about Jennifer Lopez, I think she will definitely have more #1 placements than Scarlett Johansson, Nicole Kidman, etc.
I don’t really understand why people are jumping the JLo ship because of this BAFTA snub. I mean, was BAFTA really expected for someone like her? I expect BAFTA to be somewhat elitist, especially because they don’t owe anything to an American icon like her, but AMPAS is adding fresher and newer and more diverse members all the time, so I don’t get the argument that they will be too snobbish to nominate JLo.January 7, 2020 at 7:43 pm #1203269704
I don’t think an actress from Parasite is getting in because all four of the main ladies (Lee Jung-eun, Cho Yeo-jeong, Park So-dam, and Chang Hyae-jin) gave incredible performances and I don’t think there will be a general consensus amongst Oscar voters as to who was the standout amongst them.
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