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Best Supporting Actress for Oscars, Part II

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    Jason Travis
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    #208799

    Continue. 

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    Sab227
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    #208801

    I have a feeling Helen Mirren is going to have a repeat of Hitchcock, she’ll get nominated for everything else except the Oscars, I think that last spot will go to Jane Fonda who deserves a nom and to tie a win with Jennifer Jason Leigh

    Predictions 
    Jane Fonda: Youth
    Jennifer Jason Leigh: The Hateful Eight 
    Rooney Mara: Carol 
    Alicia Vikander: The Danish Girl 
    Kate Winslet: Steve Jobs 

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    Eddy Q
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    #208804

    Final predictions (I think?)

    1. Kate Winslet
    2. Jennifer Jason Leigh
    3. Helen Mirren
    4. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
    5. Joan Allen

    As far as I could find, no Globe nominee for Drama Actress has received a supporting nod at the Oscars. Only Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago got Comedy/Musical Actress nod then supporting at Oscars, and she had a much better case for a supporting placement than Rooney Mara in Carol. So I’m daring to leave her out. Then again, there are those that won’t even watch the movie yet might still vote for Mara in supporting just because they think they should.

    I’m aware there is a chance I only get 2/5 for this category. I am, however, going to make a case for Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina getting nominated and maybe eventually winning, despite how “un-Oscary” this would be. The main problem that some people seem to have with predicting her is that nominating actors for playing androids is just not what the Oscars do. But I would argue that there is no precedent for this type of performance getting recognised because… well, exactly that, there is no precedent. Can anyone remember a time when a role like this was even in the discussion for Oscars? Or one that had both BAFTA and Globe nominations? I didn’t think so. So the whole “un-Oscary” argument doesn’t really hold.

    SAG nominated Vikander in supporting for The Danish Girl because they had to; going lead wasn’t an option. But Ex Machina did get a PGA nom, which makes me wonder what would’ve happened at SAG had Vikander been submitted as a lead for The Danish Girl. And no one’s ever received lead noms at Globes and BAFTA only to go supporting at Oscar, so in some ways I’d actually be quite surprised to see The Danish Girl get a supporting Oscar nom.

    So assuming the Ex Machina nomination actually happens, Vikander could then go on to win SAG for The Danish Girl and BAFTA for Ex Machina, though she does have stiff competition for the latter. In this scenario, everywhere would be Vikander Vikander Vikander, and then she’d start to look undeniable. There’s also another factor I haven’t mentioned, and that’s Tom’s famous “babe factor” theory. Wasn’t Ava just the sexiest android you’ve ever seen? She even has a nude scene near the end (wearing skin and everything!) There’s also copious nudity in The Danish Girl, which she won’t win for in lead, but voters will have both roles in mind when marking their ballots.

    Unless of course she only gets in for The Danish Girl (or even not at all), in which case this whole argument is void. But I thought I’d get my views across while I still can. 

     

     

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    Kevin Groome
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    #208805

    Final predictions:

    1. Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs
    2. Jennifer Jason-Leigh in The Hateful Eight
    3. Alicia Vikander in Ex-Machina
    4. Helen Mirren in Trumbo
    5. Rachel McAdams in Spotlight

    Alt. Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria

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    babypook
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    #208807

    I certainly wouldnt mind seeing Joan Allen surprise with a nod. I notice she’s been mentioned a few times in our posts and for me, she is one of the top reasons to watch Room.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #208808

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]

    Final predictions (I think?)

    1. Kate Winslet
    2. Jennifer Jason Leigh
    3. Helen Mirren
    4. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
    5. Joan Allen

    As far as I could find, no Globe nominee for Drama Actress has received a supporting nod at the Oscars. Only Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago got Comedy/Musical Actress nod then supporting at Oscars, and she had a much better case for a supporting placement than Rooney Mara in Carol. So I’m daring to leave her out. Then again, there are those that won’t even watch the movie yet might still vote for Mara in supporting just because they think they should.

    I’m aware there is a chance I only get 2/5 for this category. I am, however, going to make a case for Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina getting nominated and maybe eventually winning, despite how “un-Oscary” this would be. The main problem that some people seem to have with predicting her is that nominating actors for playing androids is just not what the Oscars do. But I would argue that there is no precedent for this type of performance getting recognised because… well, exactly that, there is no precedent. Can anyone remember a time when a role like this was even in the discussion for Oscars? Or one that had both BAFTA and Globe nominations? I didn’t think so. So the whole “un-Oscary” argument doesn’t really hold.

    SAG nominated Vikander in supporting for The Danish Girl because they had to; going lead wasn’t an option. But Ex Machina did get a PGA nom, which makes me wonder what would’ve happened at SAG had Vikander been submitted as a lead for The Danish Girl. And no one’s ever received lead noms at Globes and BAFTA only to go supporting at Oscar, so in some ways I’d actually be quite surprised to see The Danish Girl get a supporting Oscar nom.

    So assuming the Ex Machina nomination actually happens, Vikander could then go on to win SAG for The Danish Girl and BAFTA for Ex Machina, though she does have stiff competition for the latter. In this scenario, everywhere would be Vikander Vikander Vikander, and then she’d start to look undeniable. There’s also another factor I haven’t mentioned, and that’s Tom’s famous “babe factor” theory. Wasn’t Ava just the sexiest android you’ve ever seen? She even has a nude scene near the end (wearing skin and everything!) There’s also copious nudity in The Danish Girl, which she won’t win for in lead, but voters will have both roles in mind when marking their ballots.

    Unless of course she only gets in for The Danish Girl (or even not at all), in which case this whole argument is void. But I thought I’d get my views across while I still can. 

    The fact that we are talking about a newcomer makes the ‘double nomination’ argument weak. No one on earth is rushing to give Alicia two Oscar nominations for two of her first ever big film roles. She’s not Cate Blanchett, Al Pacino, Julianne Moore, Jessica Lange, Sigourney Weaver or Emma Thompson. They are going to go with the baity performance ala “The Danish Girl” in supporting and that’s all for her.

    “Ex Machina” is going to be snubbed in my opinion. Even in Original Screenplay.
    [/quote]

    Was Jessica Lange really a huge star before 1982? I doubt it. This was the year she received her first two nods.
    And if Ex Machina doesn’t get a single Oscar nod, it’ll be the first PGA nominee ever to be shut out by the Oscars.  

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    babypook
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    #208809

    [quote=”Vincelette”]

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]

    Final predictions (I think?)

    1. Kate Winslet
    2. Jennifer Jason Leigh
    3. Helen Mirren
    4. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
    5. Joan Allen

    As far as I could find, no Globe nominee for Drama Actress has received a supporting nod at the Oscars. Only Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago got Comedy/Musical Actress nod then supporting at Oscars, and she had a much better case for a supporting placement than Rooney Mara in Carol. So I’m daring to leave her out. Then again, there are those that won’t even watch the movie yet might still vote for Mara in supporting just because they think they should.

    I’m aware there is a chance I only get 2/5 for this category. I am, however, going to make a case for Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina getting nominated and maybe eventually winning, despite how “un-Oscary” this would be. The main problem that some people seem to have with predicting her is that nominating actors for playing androids is just not what the Oscars do. But I would argue that there is no precedent for this type of performance getting recognised because… well, exactly that, there is no precedent. Can anyone remember a time when a role like this was even in the discussion for Oscars? Or one that had both BAFTA and Globe nominations? I didn’t think so. So the whole “un-Oscary” argument doesn’t really hold.

    SAG nominated Vikander in supporting for The Danish Girl because they had to; going lead wasn’t an option. But Ex Machina did get a PGA nom, which makes me wonder what would’ve happened at SAG had Vikander been submitted as a lead for The Danish Girl. And no one’s ever received lead noms at Globes and BAFTA only to go supporting at Oscar, so in some ways I’d actually be quite surprised to see The Danish Girl get a supporting Oscar nom.

    So assuming the Ex Machina nomination actually happens, Vikander could then go on to win SAG for The Danish Girl and BAFTA for Ex Machina, though she does have stiff competition for the latter. In this scenario, everywhere would be Vikander Vikander Vikander, and then she’d start to look undeniable. There’s also another factor I haven’t mentioned, and that’s Tom’s famous “babe factor” theory. Wasn’t Ava just the sexiest android you’ve ever seen? She even has a nude scene near the end (wearing skin and everything!) There’s also copious nudity in The Danish Girl, which she won’t win for in lead, but voters will have both roles in mind when marking their ballots.

    Unless of course she only gets in for The Danish Girl (or even not at all), in which case this whole argument is void. But I thought I’d get my views across while I still can. 

    The fact that we are talking about a newcomer makes the ‘double nomination’ argument weak. No one on earth is rushing to give Alicia two Oscar nominations for two of her first ever big film roles. She’s not Cate Blanchett, Al Pacino, Julianne Moore, Jessica Lange, Sigourney Weaver or Emma Thompson. They are going to go with the baity performance ala “The Danish Girl” in supporting and that’s all for her.

    “Ex Machina” is going to be snubbed in my opinion. Even in Original Screenplay.
    [/quote]

    Was Jessica Lange really a huge star before 1982? I doubt it. This was the year she received her first two nods.
    And if Ex Machina doesn’t get a single Oscar nod, it’ll be the first PGA nominee ever to be shut out by the Oscars.  
    [/quote]

     

    Great point. Ex Machina has a real shot at  O Screenplay and/or Visual Effects nominations.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Eddy Q
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    #208810

    Vince, how do you know they’ll go for Vikander’s baitier performance (The Danish Girl) in supporting? Even if they do snub her for Ex Machina? That was part of my argument, that Globes and BAFTA had a choice and put her in lead. SAG didn’t have that choice. It’s all a question of perception, and I’m not seeing a consensus around Vikander as supporting in The Danish Girl, even though I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. 

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    Atypical
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    Final predictions: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”); Rooney Mara (“Carol”); Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”); Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”); Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)

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