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Best Supporting Actress Oscar Discussion (Part 6)

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  • RobertPius
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    Vice had support in the beginning. It over performed a bit in predicted nominations. I mean it even got Rockwell in.

    Even if you don’t like the performance or film I still think a better marketing campaign could have got her the award. (or maybe it still will. Who knows. This is a real toss up category.)

    nahborghi
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    I think so but voting closed yesterday. Anything that happens today and afterwards probably won”t matter.

    Yes I agree, these examples were all press from the voting period or posted like 6-7 days ago, in the final voting days.

    People who are passionate about any performance wouldn’t be touched by this type of campaign, but I can imagine that voters who don’t care about watching all the performances might be influenced if reading an article on how “Rachel Weisz saved a writer’s life” or how Regina King was “prepared for this whole her entire life”.

    Amy Adams’ campaign is so dead that the only news from this last week I’ve got is that her mom played Linney on Jimmy Kimmel.

    Anonymous
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    #1202783350

    Amy Adams’ campaign is so dead

    is always like this, isn’t? she never campaign too hard

    nahborghi
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    is always like this, isn’t? she never campaign too hard

    She never really goes for it the way King is doing, but since American Hustle there’s been the usual “So Overdue” trajetory going on in the media. I don’t know if it’s because this year Glenn is in the same boat, but with better chances, or if its because her performance in Vice is really NOT worth i, but it’s deader than ever.

    MarinaBelo2
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    #1202783386

    I think Amy wasn’t taken seriously as a contender BECAUSE of the overdue “narrative” (even without them exploring it). People in general really root for her, but Vice simply wasn’t the right vehicle. Many people disliked the movie, it’s a BO flop, her character isn’t likable, it’s not considered one of her best performances, etc. People just think she should win for something bigger and better and are afraid that if she wins for this, it’ll be harder to get a second win. That’s how I feel and apparently many people have the same feeling.

    Anyway, there are two key moments that screwed her over: King winning the Globe(she was the critical fav but she could’ve been Metcalf’d, and her SAG snub could’ve worked against her, but somehow it didn’t! WHY?) and Blunt winning the SAG. Actually, Blunt winning SAG was really upsetting to everyone but Regina.

    That’s why I think King is winning the Oscar. SAG voters awarded Blunt because 1) They love her, 2) She was wronged by the Academy 3) They think King is winning after she won GG and decided to make things easier for her because they’re sheep like that. I really think this played a part in Blunt’s win and that pisses me off. Amy or Rachel should’ve won instead so we’d actually have a race… We could’ve had: Regina GG, Amy SAG and Rachel BAFTA. It would’ve been so cool!

    Joe Burns
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    I don”t think SAG thinks about races the way you seem to imply-I think they voted for Blunt because like you said she was popular and had just been snubbed for two performances by the Oscars. They didn”t nominate King in the first place so making the path to Oscar easier for her was not something that they would care about.

    MarinaBelo2
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    #1202783399

    I have something to add:

    Unless HFPA has some sort of knowledge on who’s winning the acting Oscars, I think it’s really worrisome how apparently they are the ones deciding who wins, not the Academy. Ali’s GG win felt like a make-up win after he lost it for Moonlight, but still he swept and is probably winning another Oscar! 2 years later! Janney and Rockwell didn’t feel like Oscar or BAFTA winning performances, but they swept everything before and that sealed the deal.

    On the other hand, I think they must know something solid about Oscar voters, because Gaga losing and Close winning doesn’t feel like a Globe thing. They got it too right for my taste.

    What do you guys think about it?!

    MarinaBelo2
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    #1202783401

    I don”t think SAG thinks about races the way you seem to imply-I think they voted for Blunt because like you said she was popular and had just been snubbed for two performances by the Oscars. They didn”t nominate King in the first place so making the path to Oscar easier for her was not something that they would care about.

    It doesn’t make sense, in theory. But when you see how the voters think, with those anonymous ballots, you notice that they really want to vote for the winners, more than they want their favorites winning. The sheep mentality is real!

    Also, I think I’ve read somewhere that the SAG nominees are decided by a small group of members. So a lot of voters were probably looking for Regina to vote for after she won the Globes, and with her absence, decided to vote for Blunt because she wasn’t a threat to Regina without an Oscar nom. Obviously, I’m not saying everyone that voted for Blunt took that into account, but believe me: many did.

    Joe Burns
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    #1202783413

    I have something to add:

    Unless HFPA has some sort of knowledge on who’s winning the acting Oscars, I think it’s really worrisome how apparently they are the ones deciding who wins, not the Academy. Ali’s GG win felt like a make-up win after he lost it for Moonlight, but still he swept and is probably winning another Oscar! 2 years later! Janney and Rockwell didn’t feel like Oscar or BAFTA winning performances, but they swept everything before and that sealed the deal.

    On the other hand, I think they must know something solid about Oscar voters, because Gaga losing and Close winning doesn’t feel like a Globe thing. They got it too right for my taste.

    What do you guys think about it?!

    They are members of the press who know that they have the power to create narratives. But it isn”t always just them- there really are industry consensus”s that help things along. The sheep mentality has gotten bad in the last 11 years or so. 2007,2008, and 2009 were examples of the critics awards deciding Best Picture and the industry agreeing with them. I feel like ever since those three years(where there were competitive races in the top eight categories but still) Oscar voters just want to be on the winning team. I guess they just want to all celebrate each other lol. There still has been some competition and things are starting to get less predictable then they were say 4 years ago. So maybe the precursors really are losing their power. This year they have been all over the map for the most part so who knows?

    Monty
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    #1202783451

    It doesn’t make sense, in theory. But when you see how the voters think, with those anonymous ballots, you notice that they really want to vote for the winners, more than they want their favorites winning. The sheep mentality is real!

    Also, I think I’ve read somewhere that the SAG nominees are decided by a small group of members. So a lot of voters were probably looking for Regina to vote for after she won the Globes, and with her absence, decided to vote for Blunt because she wasn’t a threat to Regina without an Oscar nom. Obviously, I’m not saying everyone that voted for Blunt took that into account, but believe me: many did.

    So, you also think people voted for Idris Elba in SAG because he is the least threatening to Stallone?

    M
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    #1202783453

    I have something to add: Unless HFPA has some sort of knowledge on who’s winning the acting Oscars, I think it’s really worrisome how apparently they are the ones deciding who wins, not the Academy. Ali’s GG win felt like a make-up win after he lost it for Moonlight, but still he swept and is probably winning another Oscar! 2 years later! Janney and Rockwell didn’t feel like Oscar or BAFTA winning performances, but they swept everything before and that sealed the deal. On the other hand, I think they must know something solid about Oscar voters, because Gaga losing and Close winning doesn’t feel like a Globe thing. They got it too right for my taste. What do you guys think about it?!

    I don’t always agree with you, but yeah HFPA definitely seems like they’re the ones deciding who wins the Oscar. No wonder why Glenn was so surprised and emotional, probably because she knows that if she lost the Globe, she most likely would lose the Oscar as well. At that moment, she realized she has the Oscar in the bag. She wasn’t as emotional in her other speeches.

    kellis
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    #1202783472

    I have something to add:

    Unless HFPA has some sort of knowledge on who’s winning the acting Oscars, I think it’s really worrisome how apparently they are the ones deciding who wins, not the Academy. Ali’s GG win felt like a make-up win after he lost it for Moonlight, but still he swept and is probably winning another Oscar! 2 years later! Janney and Rockwell didn’t feel like Oscar or BAFTA winning performances, but they swept everything before and that sealed the deal.

    On the other hand, I think they must know something solid about Oscar voters, because Gaga losing and Close winning doesn’t feel like a Globe thing. They got it too right for my taste.

    What do you guys think about it?!

    Let me spill my thoughts, sis. It’s pretty ridiculous that a total of 90 journalists are deciding who gets Oscars now and guide about 9,000 members how to vote. They know the sheep voting problem is real within the Academy, so they take advantage and can be seen as the people who first reward the winners. I thought Janney was a total Globes move (honestly, I thought she was going to win from the beginning) but Rockwell was them displaying what they could do. Some time ago, I remember Sasha bringing up that the Oscars should go back to being the first people hanging out rewards and needs to go back because it’s gotten so out of hand. Can you imagine what the nominees would’ve looked like without the Globes dictating the race? Hawke, Collette, etc.

    But anyways, Close is getting that Oscar because of it (even though I don’t necessarily think she was the best of the year, I’m fine with her winning). On the other hand, Ali’s future Oscar wins are going to be zilch because of the sheep voting/overdue Globe, Malek (in my personal, widely-known, and open opinion) will probably be considered one of the worst winners and never allowed near the stage again because of the Globes’ direction (not that he ever had real film prospects outside of this movie to begin with), and, well, the state of this thread is also due to what the Globes dictated (lol). Not to mention the fact that these voters complain about not like being told what to do but actually love to be directed by the HFPA. So, in short hand, yeah, the dictation the Globes is pretty worrisome, including when considering at least two of the winners’ future awards chances.

    Thanks for reading my novel before I send it to my publisher.

    Joe Burns
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    #1202783474

    It”s amazing that the Globes have predicted the Best Actress Oscar winner every year since 1986 with only Frances McDormand losing to Maddona and Halle Berry losing to Sissy Spacek in 1996 and 2001.I think it”s pretty clear that they will be right again at least in Best Actress since only Close and Colman can really win the Oscar. It goes to show that SAG with 5 actresses having lost there but won the Oscars since it”s origin is less impactful then it appears to be in a way.

    Babygirl
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    #1202783478

    I don’t always agree with you, but yeah HFPA definitely seems like they’re the ones deciding who wins the Oscar. No wonder why Glenn was so surprised and emotional, probably because she knows that if she lost the Globe, she most likely would lose the Oscar as well. At that moment, she realized she has the Oscar in the bag. She wasn’t as emotional in her other speeches.

    Yep. It’s like last year when everyone thought Metcalf and Dafoe would win supporting because of the critic sweep only to lose that chance because they didn’t win the Globes. After that, SAG and BAFTA basically repeated the Globe winners.

    MarinaBelo2
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    #1202783485

    So, you also think people voted for Idris Elba in SAG because he is the least threatening to Stallone?

    Nope. I think Stallone wasn’t really contending for the win and it was just a Globes’ thing, like Aaron Taylor Johnson. Since he’s kind of a legend, the Globe and the CC wins secured a nomination he would not have gotten otherwise IMO. I think Elba won SAG because of #OscarsSoWhite and because they didn’t know who to vote for without Stallone nominated, there was no clear frontrunner.

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