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Big Brass Bet – Guess a currently 100/1 film that gets a Best Picture nom

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    Cordelia
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    So last year, I put Parasite in my Best Picture lineup when it was 100/1 odds. It is the only good bet I have made at this website. But in the spirit of that, I want to encourage a bit of lighthearted creativity and ambition from predictors. What I want is a prediction of a film that is 100/1 odds currently on the combined list that will get a Best Picture nomination. I am writing a larger piece later (on what it means for a film to be stagey, how the Academy’s changed, and the 2021 race being dominated by stage adaptations), so I looked at the odds and I think there’s some juicy choices.

    The list of films that are ineligible for this challenge are

    • Nomadland
    • Mank
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • One Night In Miami
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • The Father
    • News of the World
    • Minari
    • Soul
    • Da 5 Bloods
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    • Judas and the Black Messiah

    Anything else goes. 🙂

    Have fun. Make earnest guesses, maybe you’ll strike gold.

    My Favourite Albums

    Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

    Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

    Since I Left You - The Avalanches

    Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

    Vespertine - Bjork

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    LLLhawks
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    The Invisible Man. Boooooom.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Cordelia
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    I’m considering being cheeky and saying a Fox Searchlight film like Next Goal Wins or The French Dispatch, due to Sundance early in the year. I think that Sundance will initiate at least one Best Picture nominee.

    My galaxy brain is Wolfwalkers but to explain that track of logic would require its own thread and probably sound like a conspiracy theory, and I think Americans have had enough of those.

    My Favourite Albums

    Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

    Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

    Since I Left You - The Avalanches

    Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

    Vespertine - Bjork

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    abelfenty
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    #1203838262

    The Prom.

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    wolfali
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    #1203838264

    The Prom.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1203838294

    The Prom-ising Young Woman

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203838394

    The Prom or The White Tiger (there was tea Netflix will push it and the early reactions from critics were great, people are sleeping on that one)

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Wild Mountain Thyme 

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    William Gillquist
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    If it gets the reviews. The Prom.

    FYC Oscars: Licorice Pizza (Best Picture, Best Director, Original Screenplay), The Mitchells vs The Machines (Best Picture, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay), Wes Anderson (Best Director), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of MacBeth), Andrew Garfield and Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick...BOOM!), Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans), Stephen Karam (Adapted Screenplay), Attica and Summer of Soul (Best Documentary)

    FYC Razzies: Dear Evan Hansen (in all eligible categories)

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    gabspss
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    The Prom.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    wolfali
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    The Prom or The White Tiger (there was tea Netflix will push it and the early reactions from critics were great, people are sleeping on that one)

    I don’t know. If I’m not mistaken Anne Thompson mentioned that when a preview of the film was shown at AFI that it had a very muted reception…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    nevkm
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    #1203840621

    Sound of Metal and Promising Young Woman

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    OneAndOnly
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    The Prom 

    Others with a chance:

    Tenet
    On the Rocks
    The Midnight Sky
    Promising Young Woman

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC:
    The Great
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Severance
    The Batman

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