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Secret Oscar Ballots: An Annual Tradition

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    Nameizmann
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    #1203331103

    This is yet another example of why Parasite is going to win Best Picture. It’s on all 5 of the ballots, and 1st place on 3 of them. And even though 1917 was higher on two of the ballots, it didn’t even place on 3 of them. 

    I disagree with this statement. I’m surprised a lot of people think about it that way, because in my head it’s definitely wrong. The fact that Parasite was placed #1 three times when it won against 1917 might be important for plurality voting, but that’s not the case for preferential balloting. In preferential balloting, all that matters is the head-to-head ranking between the two films that are left at the end of the elimination process.

    So let’s assume that 1917 and Parasite are Top 2. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if a voter listed:

    1. 1917

    2. Parasite

    3. Little Women

    9. FvF

    OR IF THE VOTER LISTED:

    1. 1917

    2. Little Women

    8. FvF

    9. Parasite.

    In the last round of elimination, in both lists, only two contenders will be left:

    1. 1917

    2. Parasite

    In both cases, at that matters is that 1917 is ahead of Parasite head-to-head.

    So as a person invested in Parasite’s BP chances, I only cared about the fact that Parasite vs. 1917 was 3 to 2, head to head; not that Parasite placed #1 three times, 1917 wasn’t in top 3, etc.

    Relatedly, on a similar note: the order of elimination doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter if LW was eliminated first and OUATIH last, or vice versa. Again, all that matters? The head-to-head ranking of the top 2 contenders.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Nameizmann.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Nameizmann.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Nameizmann.
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    Qoslca
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    #1203331111

    Does no one remember last year when most of the secret ballots listed films other than Green Book? We all know how that turned out.

    I still think Best Picture this year is 1917’s to lose. Beside it missing critical wins along the way, I’ve even read some secret ballots from voters that said they’re unimpressed with Parasite...

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203331114

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>

    I disagree with this statement. I’m surprised a lot of people think about it that way, because in my head it’s most likely wrong. I believe that In preferential balloting, all it matters is the head-to-head ranking between the two films that are left at the end of the elimination process. So let’s assume that 1917 and Parasite are top 2. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if a voter listed: 1. 1917 2. Parasite 3. Little Women … 9. FvF OR if the voter listed: 1. 1917 2. Little Women … 8. FvF 9. Parasite. In the last round of elimination, in both lists, only two contenders will be left: 1. 1917 2. Parasite In both cases, at that matters is that 1917 is ahead of Parasite head-to-head. So when I was reading that preferential ballots (and as a person invested in Parasite BP), I think the only relevant information is that Parasite vs. 1917 was 3 to 2, head to head. Relatedly, on a similar note: the order of elimination doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter if LW was eliminated first and OUATIH last, or vice versa. Again, all that matters? The head-to-head ranking of the top 2 contenders.

    </p>
    But the fact that 1917 isn’t even on the majority of the ballots on that list indicates that it does not have the widespread support you guys claim it does. I just read a voter say he thought the plot made no sense and they could have just flown an airplane there (which is exactly my thought as well), and also that the tech distracted from the emotion and character (which I also kind of agree with). But Parasite’s on all of them, and 1st on 3, so it absolutely does have the widespread support it needs. To be honest I’m not even sure 1917 is 2nd after seeing 3 of those 5 ballots plus the Goldderby ballot leave it off completely. I think Jojo might be second.

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    Jake
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    #1203331117

    I feel like with the older voters probably thinking the same way this anonymous voter does, Hollywood may upset in Screenplay.

    Isn’t it still the frontrunner?

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    James Breheney
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    #1203331124

    From voter no 1 in the NBP article: “I might still vote for Joker (for Original Score) even though I can’t stand the score and haven’t seen the film because it’s the first time a woman would win”. Wow if voters who hated the Joker score are still going to vote for it then I guess Hildur is a stone-cold lock.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203331126

    Does no one remember last year when most of the secret ballots listed films other than Green Book? We all know how that turned out. I still think Best Picture this year is 1917’s to lose. Beside it missing critical wins along the way, I’ve even read some secret ballots from voters that said they’re unimpressed with Parasite...

    Did you guys see the same ballots I did?Every one of them had Green Book in the Top 3. You were just covering your ears and pretending it wasn’t going to happen. Roma was the film that was actually on none of the ballots, despite 5000 sheep on this site voting it in 1st place on their Best Picture predictions.

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    Qoslca
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    #1203331130

    Did you guys see the same ballots I did?Every one of them had Green Book in the Top 3. You were just covering your ears and pretending it wasn’t going to happen. Roma was the film that was actually on none of the ballots, despite 5000 sheep on this site voting it in 1st place on their Best Picture predictions.

    Just for the record, I was advocating for and predicting Green Book last year. It was actually my favorite film of 2018 (beside Isle of Dogs.)

    Edit: Btw I don’t mean to start an argument all. Everyone has their own opinions, and I respect yours! That’s what makes it fun. We’ll all just have to see what wins come Sunday….

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    Nameizmann
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    #1203331136

    <p style=”text-align: left;”> </p> But the fact that 1917 isn’t even on the majority of the ballots on that list indicates that it does not have the widespread support you guys claim it does.

    First, I think you’re putting too much stock on an extremely small sample.

    Second, BP winner doesn’t need to be widely loved. The only requirement is that more people like it than the 2nd place film.

    For example, lets say 80% of voters loved 1917 and 20% hated it. And lets say 90% of voters loved Parasite and only 10% hated it. 1917 will still win against Parasite if more than 50% preferred it to Parasite (which would be entirely possible!).

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203331139

    Isn’t it still the frontrunner?

    Not after WGA and BAFTA. Those awards mean a lot more this year since they happened smack in the middle of Oscar voting. And the Oscars are going to want to reward diversity here.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203331145

    First, I think you’re putting too much stock on an extremely small sample. Second, BP winner doesn’t need to be widely loved. The only requirement is that more people like it than the 2nd place film. For example, lets say 80% of voters loved 1917 and 20% hated it. And lets say 90% of voters loved Parasite and only 10% hated it. 1917 will still win against Parasite if more than 50% preferred it to Parasite (which would be entirely possible!).

    Okay, you can’t try to argue with me that the leaked ballots are in favor of 1917, and then when proven wrong say that they don’t matter.

    I know it’s a small sample, but there have been many other small samples of leaked ballots that have favored Parasite as well. And all of those small samples are going to add up, especially if they’re indicative of the majority opinion. Plus Green Book was Top 3 on all of the leaked ballots last year and ended up winning.

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    AmnistY21
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    #1203331148

    https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/anonymous-oscar-voter-jojo-rabbit-1917/

    He liked “Parasite,” though, calling it “completely original,” but said he’s only voting for it in the Best International Film category.

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    James Breheney
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    #1203331157

    https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/anonymous-oscar-voter-jojo-rabbit-1917/

    This will always be a barrier for foreign films and likely too big a barrier for one to win.

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    Hinrich689
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    #1203331173

    Regardless of what film or actor you are rooting to win, these ballots are just a very small sample. All I remember was Richard Grant sweeping the anonymous ballots last year and Mahershala Ali still eventually getting the Oscar.

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    ARegularGuy
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    #1203331176

    There seems to be a pretty big trend in giving 1917 Best VFX, I may have to switch my prediction here.

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    Hinrich689
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    #1203331183

    Here’s a thread of what were in the anonymous oscar ballots last year:
    https://twitter.com/mavericksmovies/status/1099529251496222720?s=20

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