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I hope you don’t mind me making a separate topic on this question, but I’m really interested in your opinions, which is also about the unpredictability of the year in general, not just Amanda’s special situation.
So, around November/December, articles began to rain down that Amanda Seyfried deserved an Oscar for Mank (source) and many pundits & experts mentioned her as a potential winner for playing Marion Davies (source).
Until the day of the SAG nominations, I think most people thought she was our front-runner. Then something happened that day. Surprisingly, Amanda didn’t get a SAG nomination, though even Gary Oldman got in for the Lead Actor category. People began to lose their faith in Seyfried’s front-runner status, and in the days leading up to the Oscar nominations, many were already wondering if, with just a GG-BFCA combo, she was going to make the cut at all.
Then she was nominated, in fact, her film received the most nominations, yet it fell out of the screenplay and editing categories, proving that perhaps the film is mainly strong in the technical categories.
And after the general summary, now comes the argument as to why I think she might win:
1. The category is weak. Everyone except Youn has to deal with at least as many disadvantages as Amanda. Bakalova’s nomination is impressive, but such performance has never won, Glenn is in a panned film and trying to rise up with her overdue status, which hasn’t helped her much so far, and Olivia Colman’s film, while performing well in nominations, the Oscar-winner’s personal buzz is almost non-existent (not to mention that she has just won). The Youn prediction makes a lot of sense on paper, but the Academy has really started to give more support to Asian-led movies in the last Oscar season, so it may be a naive idea that Hollywood-wise unknown Youn can win instead of the typical respected/veteran & Sorvino/Connelly/Zeta-Jones/Hathaway/Vikander type of contenders.
2. Supporting Actress is the only real possibility for the film to win a key category. She’s been named the highlight of Mank by most people.
3. BAFTA snub means nothing if we look at the fact that 7 to 12 people decided on the candidates.
4. SAG uses a different voting system than the Academy, their voting is not based on preference but on consensus. So SAG voters (who go for bigger, more showy performances and have more basic tastes than Academic voters) may have thought Zengel was better in a pretty generic western, but they were also the ones who snubbed Regina King and rewarded Emily Blunt, Denzel Washington, Idris Elba. In the last four to five years, we simply couldn’t trust their decisions.
5. This is perhaps one of the categories that is completely open where surprises can occur. Seyfried’s reception showed passion during the award season, even if people don’t want to see it in retrospect.
6. I was also quite surprised that so many actors support Amanda. From Vanessa Redgrave to Cher to Carey Mulligan. Being someone’s co-star doesn’t mean they’ll be involved in your campaign, but these legends and young artists seem to be participating in Amanda’s campaign. She also worked together with names such as Meryl Streep, Julie Walters, Christine Baranski, Julianne Moore, Ethan Hawke, Charlize Theron, Diane Keaton, Alan Arkin, Marisa Tomei, Naomi Watts, Adam Driver, Anne Hathaway, Hugh Jackman, Tina Fey…etc. and some of them spoke appreciatively about working together.
I’m not saying I would dare to actually predict Amanda as a winner yet or even that connections are everything, but t I think she has a better chance than many people think.
What do you think?
ReplyNo, I highly doubt she’s even top 3 at this point
ReplyCopy URLFYC :
Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
Best Picture - Nomadland
Best Director - Chloé Zhao
SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Cinematography - NomadlandAmanda Seyfried has a very similar problem to Viola Davis in that she just lacks passion in comparison to their competition. I am a fan of both performances but the problem both had was they were overhyped as undeniable turns and that feels like it’s penalised them when it comes to the passion department. They are excellent performances but there simply isn’t much in the role.
By comparison Yuh-jung Youn offers a novelty to the traditional grandma role, one which viewers can empathise with more. She also has the recent spike in hate crimes against Asian-Americans and the symbolism of Minari‘s themes surrounding the American dream offering a rooting factor for her performance. Glenn Close also has a grandma role that whilst she’s in a panned film, is one of the only parts of the film most can agree was good or “ok” and an overdue narrative that helps her. Olivia Colman has a dramatic role that American audiences are unfamiliar with Colman delivering and a role that holds a lot more dramatic weight due to the current crisis in the care of old people during the pandemic. Maria Bakalova put herself at risk exposing Rudy Giuliani. There is more passion and more of a rooting factor behind these performances than there is with Seyfried.
Seyfried is in a Best Picture nominee which theoretically helps her but I’m very confident she’s last in this race. Even if I’d put her third in my personal ranking of this lineup.
ReplyCopy URLFYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
It’s definitely crazy how she went from being considered the defacto frontrunner early on to almost missing the nomination.
It all really began with that SAG snub but I did go into the Golden Globes tentatively predicting her to win. Once she lost there, I thought she was either going to end up in 5th place or not be nominated at all.
I had predicted Foster over her since the Globe stat was pretty telling.
ReplyCopy URL“The art of making art is putting it together...”
It’s definitely crazy how she went from being considered the defacto frontrunner early on to almost missing the nomination. It all really began with that SAG snub but I did go into the Golden Globes tentatively predicting her to win. Once she lost there, I thought she was either going to end up in 5th place or not be nominated at all. I had predicted Foster over her since the Globe stat was pretty telling.
I don’t think that the Golden Globes has relevance in this race as the winner herself didn’t make the cut. We don’t know who was second. Maybe it was Seyfried. Maybe it was someone else.
I still think people overestimate Bakalova and underestimate Close, Seyfried and Colman. I think all five women can win.
I predict Glenn to take SAG (after all they even nominated Amy Adams in lead), Youn to take BAFTA.
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