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Can Nolan beat Del Toro at DGA?

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  • VictorJR
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    Hello, I’m wondering if Nolan could beat Del Toro at DGA. If it happens, I believe the race can shift completely. Whatever happens at DGA I see Nolan getting the BAFTA, even more if he wins the DGA, so Nolan could get to Oscar night with DGA + BAFTA. If he can do that I believe he’d be the frontrunner. What do you guys think?

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202480196

    If TSOW has lost PGA I still would have said no, but it would have looked more realistic then. Now with PGA under its belt, I don’t see why the DGA won’t follow suit. They want to predict Best Picture at the Oscars and since the Del Toro film got the most nominations there and is now the official Oscar BP frontrunner, why wouldn’t they give it to him?

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    VictorJR
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    1. Nolan was already nominated at DGA for Memento, TDK and Inception, so this is his 4th nom, while this is just the first nom for Del Toro.

    2. If Nolan gets DGA I think he really can win the Oscar, so DGA would still be “predicting it”.

    3. Maybe TSOW could be suffering some backlash as being seen as the new frontrunner by many people?

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    Macca
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    They love Nolan, so why not. They nominated him for Memento, Inception and The Dark Knight. Del Toro on the other hand has no prior nominations, not even Pan’s Labyrinth. I’d rather predict the director they obviously love than the one they feel so-so about.

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    EmmyWinner
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    #1202480200

    You guys are still in the Nolan bandwagon?

    Let it go.

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    GMonty777
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    Really good question Victor.

    The sentiment sides heavily with TSOW. It won the most critics circle best director awards (tied with Gerwig to be exact). It won the Globe and Critics Choice. It’s up for the BAFTA. The PGAs went for the film. 12 of the last 17 years, the PGA and DGAs have been identical.

    But more importantly, the DGAs are a great predictor on whose going to win Best Picture and Best Director. In the DGAs history, 62/70 winners or 89%, went on to win Best Director, and 54/70 winners or 77% went on to win Best Picture. That to me is also why the sentiment is going for TSOW.

    Back to your question.

    Any of the DGAs nominees COULD win. That’s not really the intention of the question. The question is will Nolan/Dunkirk pull off the UPSET.

    To be honest, I think it’s solid possibility. This is his fourth nomination. DGA members could think he’s “overdue” and feel directing an unconventional war epic with great precision and accuracy merits a win.

    I wouldn’t count out Martin McDonaugh as well. I know, he’s not up for the Oscar, but the DGAs did nominate him and his film is a neck-and-neck with TSOW in the Best Picture race.

    If Nolan did win, then the Best Picture race would have three contenders.

    But at the end of the day, I am still putting my chips in for Del Toro here. His direction was by far the most challenging and unique. He combined together a love story, a cold war thriller, a social commentary about prejudice and discrimination, and a monster movie all into one. The fact that it won the PGA and is the most celebrated direction of the year, should give you a hat tip, it’s going Del Toro’s way.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202480231

    If TSOW has lost PGA I still would have said no, but it would have looked more realistic then. Now with PGA under its belt, I don’t see why the DGA won’t follow suit. They want to predict Best Picture at the Oscars and since the Del Toro film got the most nominations there and is now the official Oscar BP frontrunner, why wouldn’t they give it to him?

    Agree.

    The PGAs, DGAs, SAGE, and WGA awards are basically Best Picture awards. They are rewarding their favorite film of the year. TSOW seems to be the most popular (along with 3BNEM).

    TSOW is the favorite, but I think McDonaugh and Nolan are the two dark horses here.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    For some reason I think that if any movie is going make a move and get some momentum in the next month it is going to be Dunkirk. I find it hard to believe it will go home empty handed Oscar night. Going to watch it Tonight. If Nolan does surprise at DGA look out !!

    • This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Thomas Eagan.
    • This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Thomas Eagan.
    • This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Thomas Eagan.
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    Mr Roboto
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    #1202480336

    But more importantly, the DGAs are a great predictor on whose going to win Best Picture and Best Director. In the DGAs history, 62/70 winners or 89%, went on to win Best Director, and 54/70 winners or 77% went on to win Best Picture. That to me is also why the sentiment is going for TSOW.

    That hasn’t been true for Best Picture ever since the Academy went to a preferential ballot in 2012. Since then, the DGA went 2/5 with Best Picture but 4/5 with Best Director.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202480338

    But more importantly, the DGAs are a great predictor on whose going to win Best Picture and Best Director. In the DGAs history, 62/70 winners or 89%, went on to win Best Director, and 54/70 winners or 77% went on to win Best Picture. That to me is also why the sentiment is going for TSOW.

    That hasn’t been true for Best Picture ever since the Academy went to a preferential ballot in 2012. Since then, the DGA went 2/5 with Best Picture but 4/5 with Best Director.

    Actually, it started in 2009. They are 5/8 for picture and 7/8 for director.

    Even with the preferential ballot system, winning the DGA DOES STILL make you a BP front-runner. 63% accuracy is not too shabby.

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    Mr Roboto
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    Actually, it started in 2009. They are 5/8 for picture and 7/8 for director. Even with the preferential ballot system, winning the DGA DOES STILL make you a BP front-runner. 63% accuracy is not too shabby.

    In 2010 and 2011, the Academy opened up Best Picture to 10 nominees after the backlash when The Dark Knight and Wall-E missed out on nominations at the 2009 Academy Awards. After that, they switched up to a preferential ballot in 2012 and they haven’t had 10 nominees since. Since then, the DGA has only matched up with Best Picture 40% of the time.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202480348

    Actually, it started in 2009. They are 5/8 for picture and 7/8 for director. Even with the preferential ballot system, winning the DGA DOES STILL make you a BP front-runner. 63% accuracy is not too shabby.

    In 2010 and 2011, the Academy opened up Best Picture to 10 nominees after the backlash when The Dark Knight and Wall-E missed out on nominations at the 2009 Academy Awards. After that, they switched up to a preferential ballot in 2012 and they haven’t had 10 nominees since. Since then, the DGA has only matched up with Best Picture 40% of the time.

    Oh my goodness.

    You’re missing the point. My point here is that TSOW is favored to win Best Director. That’s it.

    In a preferential ballot system, only the HIGH VOTES count. It doesn’t matter if there was 5 or 9 (we have never had 10 since 2009).

    Winning the DGA does indeed make you a main Best Picture contender. You cannot logically argue against it.

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    Jason Travis
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    I would love him to. Dunkirk was the early frontrunner and seems like a MUCH more steady movie to win the top prize then Shape of Water, which is still baffling me with the praise it’s getting (it was good, not great).

    I do think Dunkirk is winning at least 4 Oscars (Cinematography, Editing, and the Sound categories). Perhaps this is because of when Hacksaw Ridge won last year in editing and sound, I realized that the academy does like it’s war films.

    Nolan’s first Director nomination is wonderful. But he also has missed the boat many times, and that could be an indicator that voters are still a bit cold towards him. I always compare his treatment to that of David Fincher. Both visionary directors that somehow have reputations of not always being the “easiest” to deal with. This apparently didn’t stop Cameron from winning HIS directing prize…

    I think if Nolan wins DGA, its def a race and I think he can win the Oscar.

    Remember, PGA has been wrong about Best Picture now two years in a row (La La Land, Big Short). So is there pick of Shape of Water that important now? Who knows. That prefrential ballot really makes things screwy.

    I will say this. It is not the norm for a movie that leads the nominations to win Best Picture anymore. They win a slew of techs, and then the small movie wins the top honor. HOWEVER- the epic usually DOES win one big award- and that’s Best Director (think Life of Pi, Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land). But I would consider Dunkirk epic too, so we’ll see. Three Billboards missed Director nod, and it won’t get the pity vote for a Ben Affleck. It’s also divisive and that usually doesn’t win on preferential. Dunkirk, in my mind, is not divisive. I haven’t heard anyone say they flat out hated it. That means its placements on ballots will most likely remain high.

    • This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.

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    Mr Roboto
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    Winning the DGA does indeed make you a main Best Picture contender. You cannot logically argue against it.

    A Best Picture contender, yes. A front-runner, no, which your previous posts on this have alluded to.

    I do agree that TSOW and GDT is the front-runner for Best Director for now. The DGA will change all that though if they go with Nolan or someone else.

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    Atypical
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    #1202480365

    YES. Anything’s possible. But I’m still predicting del Toro.

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