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Can Three Billboards really win Best Picture?

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  • Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202462043

    Three Billboards dominated at the Golden Globes, winning four of the six awards it was nominated for: Best Picture – Drama, Best Actress – Drama, Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay. Many people on this site didn’t anticipate this kind of showing from such a polarizing film.

    Today, it massively overperformed at the BAFTA nominations, being second only to The Shape of Water in total nods. With the film having so much momentum and being as timely a film as any, can it win Best Picture or will the backlash get to it?

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    ARegularGuy
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    I have been saying to friends for a while Three Billboards is a massive dark horse. It’s material is timely, it’s well acted. It has a lot going for it. The GG wins and BAFTA noms only help this point. Although I think a lot of people overestimate how important the Golden Globes really are (they nominated The Tourist for several categories, for example). Also with this new preferential balloting system for the Academy it’s harder to guess what will win, but I think all this only helps its status as a dark horse. The front-runners are still the same to me. Lady Bird did good enough at the GG’s as well, although underperformed at BAFTA. Dunkirk is a war movie and you should never count out a war movie. If the split ends up being between a war movie and female driven comedy, Three Billboards has a good chance of sneaking in the middle by appealing to people who want to award a film with gravitas but also is female-centric. It’s a fascinating race this year and I genuinely don’t know who will win at this point.

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    Riley
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    #1202462081

    Timely and important subject matter.
    Won various people’s choice awards at festivals.
    Strong reviews.
    Cleaning up in industry nominations and wins.
    Rapturous applause from Oscar voters at the Globes.
    Always possible that it could be just divisive enough to get done in by the preferential ballot, but it “can” win.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202462099

    I think it’s safe to win but with all of the haters I am hesitant of the preferential system. Lady Bird does fit the bill of Moonlight type of upset that if it’s not someone’s #1 it’s their #2 or 3. If it gets director and somehow editing then I will consider it to upset for picture.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202462168

    I get the sense Three Billboards is more far divisive on social media than it is within the actual film industry.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1202462242

    Yes. It can. Based on stats, momentum, and the overall support from the Industry, it is the frontrunner and the only film to have hit all required precursors to win Best Picture.

    Three Billboards won’t be the first divisive film to win a preferential ballot.
    Birdman and The Big Short, two highly divisive films, won the Producers Guild award via a preferential ballot.

    Birdman went on to win the Best Picture Oscar. Also via a preferential ballot.

    – They prefered Birdman over Boyhood.
    – They prefered the divisive, “gimmick” and pretentious Birdman over the critically lauded, best reviewed film of all time Boyhood.
    -They prefered the spectacle over the arthouse 12 years in the making.

    Preferential = Preference = Prefer

    If this race is down to Lady Bird and Three Billboards, which one do think Oscar voters will feel obliged to vote for?

    Which one is “important enough? Has a message. Speaks to the current climate. The zeitgeist film of the year?

    Which film do you think the steak eaters and men of the Academy will rank 1, 2, 3.

    Lady Bird?

    I said previously this is Birdman vs Boyhood all over again.

    And when the dust settles, critics and pundits will hate controversial and divisive Three Billboards for winning Best Picture (Birdman, Crash etc), but will miraculously come to the realisation: Ohhhh. The stats were right there. We should have seen that win coming.

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202462253

    – They prefered Birdman over Boyhood.

    That was an easy call since Borehood/Boringhood is not a good film, heh, is not even a film

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    kbfr12
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    #1202462256

    It would be very on-brand for the Academy to end this year, of all years, by giving Best Picture to a movie that many people are treating like the second coming of Crash.

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    gundam0_0
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    #1202462261

    Crash has higher score than Brokeback Mountain on IMDB. Why people keep saying that Crash is hated?

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    kbfr12
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    #1202462266

    Crash has higher score than Brokeback Mountain on IMDB. Why people keep saying that Crash is hated?

    Your first mistake is putting any stock in the IMDB user score.

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    Stegeo
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    #1202462270

    I am an imdb user myself and I trust imdb score more than anything. It’s always accurate (well not when it comes to comedy films, imdb users seem to not easily enjoy them). It’s better than Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, 2 sites no one should give a sh!t about.

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    gundam0_0
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    #1202462271

    Crash has higher score than Brokeback Mountain on IMDB. Why people keep saying that Crash is hated?

    Your first mistake is putting any stock in the IMDB user score.

    a small number of users on this forum vs more than 200,000 people

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    sofan
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    #1202462272

    I am an imdb user myself and I trust imdb score more than anything. It’s always accurate (well not when it comes to comedy films, imdb users seem to not easily enjoy them). It’s better than Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, 2 sites no one should give a sh!t about.

    lol

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    mafro987
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    #1202462276

    IMDB scores are utterly meaningless in ranking the quality of films.

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    kbfr12
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    #1202462278

    I am an imdb user myself and I trust imdb score more than anything. It’s always accurate (well not when it comes to comedy films, imdb users seem to not easily enjoy them). It’s better than Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, 2 sites no one should give a sh!t about.

    ok thanks for sharing

    a small number of users on this forum vs more than 200,000 people

    I wouldn’t trust this forum’s opinion on anything.

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