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January 26, 2015 at 10:02 am #175984
Well after Michael Keaton’s loss to Eddie Redmayne at the SAG’s last night I have put Redmayne in first place for my Best Actor Oscar predictions. I now officially don’t have Birdman taking home any Oscars in my predictions. I know, I know it just won at the PGA and it took the SAG Ensemble Prize both of which took away some of Boyhood’s momentum but hear me out as I break down category by category why I think Birdman could be doomed at the Oscars.
Boyhood can still regain its momentum at the DGA awards and I still think its the Best Picture and Best Director favorite. Redmayne has the momentum after SAG and J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette seem to have the Supporting categories locked down which rules out Edward Norton and Emma Stone winning. Both Sound categories seem to be between Interstellar and American Sniper with Whiplash as a possible spoiler in Sound Mixing. Birdman is in a close three way race with Boyhood and Grand Budapest Hotel for Original Screenplay and I think Boyhood will take that one. While I know I’m in the minority on this one I think Unbroken has a good shot at Best Cinematography. While Birdman has some impressive camera work in it Unbroken does too especially in the airplane battle in the beginning. Plus Unbroken has some breathtaking scenery in it as well which is always a plus in this category.
Add it all up and I think Birdman could go home empty handed. While I could see it winning for Best Actor and/or Cinematography I wouldn’t be surprised to see it lose both of those races. Granted there is still a long way to go and if Birdman takes the DGA prize I will likely revise my theory. I would be very interested to find out if anyone else thinks that Birdman could be shut out completely. Hope everyone is doing well.
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First Place- 2015 Academy Of Country Music AwardsJanuary 26, 2015 at 10:05 am #175986
I hope not – and I think Redmayne’s win doesn’t quite cement him as the official lock, but instead shows a lot of strength and will make Best Actor a nail-biter, especially if Keaton takes BAFTA, which is very possibleJanuary 26, 2015 at 10:40 am #175987
As of right now, I think it will possibly take Actor. I’d predict it for Original Screenplay if there weren’t so many writers sharing the credit. It may sound silly, but I think that really hinders it’s chances.
Boyhood is still taking Picture.January 26, 2015 at 11:11 am #175988
Well all the categories with Birdman are all very close so it can win nothing and at the Same Time it can take Best picture, director, actor, and cinematography.
My bets are still Best Actor and cinematography but who knowsJanuary 26, 2015 at 11:13 am #175989
Birdman losing Cinematography to Unbroken? Because of Roger Deakins? That theory hasn’t worked in the past. They didn’t care for Unbroken that much.
I could see The Grand Budapest Hotel going 0-9 though. I only have it winning Production Design.January 26, 2015 at 11:16 am #175990
Well, I certainly hope the OP is right, but… I am predicting Birdman will win 2, perhaps 3 Oscars ): I’ve been puzzled by the lack of love for Richard Linklater’s screenplay of Boyhood – I know many see Grand Budapest winning Original Screenplay, but I think TGBH will win Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hairstyling. I think Birdman’s terrible pretentious screenplay will win ): Unbroken deserves the Cinematography award, and I hated the camera work in Birdman, but the fact that Birdman is a BP nominee and Unbroken did so poorly doesn’t bode well for it.
Best Actor is still too close to call. I switched to Redmayne, because I so want him to win, but I think the vote is going to be razor-thin close and it could go either way.
I will say that I think these three races are all really close and it COULD go 0-for-9. American Hustle went 0-for-10 last year so it CAN happen again this year! (please do!)January 26, 2015 at 11:33 am #175991
I’m currently predicting it for 3- Picture, Actor, and Cinematography. Tempted to switch to it in Director or Screenplay.January 26, 2015 at 11:33 am #175992
I think it’s a solid frontrunner in Cinematography – but I also thought that about Tree of Life and Children of Men. Maybe Ida has a shot. I don’t think Unbroken can win it.January 26, 2015 at 11:46 am #175994
0-9 seems unlikely at this point. 3-4 wins are at least attainable, with Keaton being in somewhat shaky footing.January 26, 2015 at 11:54 am #175995
Cinematography and maybe Screenplay is all I seeJanuary 26, 2015 at 11:56 am #175996
Cinematography is one of the most locked up races of the whole ceremony. And it will still likely win best actor. So the idea that it will win nothing?
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/January 26, 2015 at 8:39 pm #175997
I’m not as confident that Keaton will win Best Actor after SAG last night. But I do think they will win something in the technical categories. (I hope it wins Actor and Director though)
Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.January 26, 2015 at 8:53 pm #175998
Someone did this similar post last year for American Hustle, and they were right. So maybe you will be right.
I don’t think Birdman cinematography is a lock. Academy tends to go for the most beautiful vista-like cinematography for its winner, and Birdman’s mostly dark and interior shooting is far from the typical “beautiful” cinematography.January 26, 2015 at 9:01 pm #175999
It’s a possibility;
Cinematography is Birdman’s strongest chance, with Keaton right behind. But I see The Grand Budapest Hotel taking Cinematography – the academy is VERY visual friendly when it comes to choosing this award, and I think Budapest is more stunning then Birdman, though the latter would be a worthy choice.
I don’t know what to expect in Best Actor anymore, but I am sticking with my Bradley Cooper choice. I think Redmayne’s SAG victory will help Cooper take this, considering the vote splitting that will occur between Redmayne and Keaton. Cooper’s lack of precursor attention is what worries me. But I like having one crazy prediction every year, and this is it.
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FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017Riley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantJanuary 26, 2015 at 9:43 pm #176000
End of discussion.
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