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November 9, 2015 at 10:19 am #197646
Of the three films opening on Christmas day, which one do you think will end up with the biggest box office: “Joy,” “The Revenant” or “The Hateful Eight”? Also, which of these is likeliest to be a major Oscar player and which one might get skunked?November 9, 2015 at 10:31 am #197648
The biggest hit with audiences will be The Hateful Eight. The smallest… that’s a tough one. I’m guessing Joy? After all The Revenant stars DiCaprio who’s arguably the biggest box office draw in the world. But the biggest Oscar player will be Joy. Academy just loves them some David O. Russell crap. The crappier his movies get, the more likely they are to get nominated.November 9, 2015 at 10:58 am #197651
I think between DiCaprio, Lawrence, and Tarantino, Lawrence is the biggest draw. But Tarantino’s movie will have all all the roadshow bells and whistles. I’m guessing The Revenant makes the least between them, since it’s apparently so unrelentlessly violent for so long, but I think it gets the most nominations overall.November 9, 2015 at 11:13 am #197652
THe Hateful Eight
In that order. I’m going to see the Hateful Eight and the Revenant.November 9, 2015 at 11:19 am #197653
Either The Hateful Eight or The Revenant. Jennifer Lawrence hasn’t really proven herself a draw without her bow and arrow and when she’s not shapeshifting. While her previous films with DOR were hits, they were still flashy star packages. So, I’d put a question mark on Joy.November 9, 2015 at 11:43 am #197654
H8ful has biggest box office potential but also bigger potential to flop Oscar wise.November 9, 2015 at 2:07 pm #197655
You have to remember Hateful Eight is now a limited Christmas release. It isn’t going wide until first week of January which seems dumb. Django went wide on Christmas in 2012 and did very well. Star Wars is still going to be winning the box office for Christmas but I think Joy will do well with Lawrence at the helm and The Revenant will do equally as well with DiCaprio at the helm. Concussion could also rack in good numbers with it’s football themes and Will Smith.November 9, 2015 at 3:49 pm #197656
The Revenant is also opening limited on Christmas and going wide January 8.November 9, 2015 at 3:49 pm #197657
‘Joy’ is probably your BP/BD/Best Actress winner.
Box office… Hmmm:
I’ll say (opening)
1. ‘The Revenant’ ($60M)
2. ‘The Hateful Eight’ ($40M)
3. ‘Joy’ ($25M)
They will all be box office successes.November 9, 2015 at 4:03 pm #197658
Hateful Eight and Joy are most likey to score over $100 mil. Which gets more will depend on audience response and Oscar play. I’d wager Joy will do better (as I think it’ll win big) but hard to know.
Revenant is a wild card. DiCaprio’s obviously a big draw but I think the film will be very divisive. $100 mil might be hard to cross but it’ll depend on whether or not audiences go for it or just find it too strange and brutal.
The funny thing about this “Christmas box office bloodbath” is that it’s a bloodbath because Star Wars is going to slaughter. We won’t know for sure which is the winner until the nearer to the end of their runs, after the nominations (especially because two of them have limited releases at first).November 10, 2015 at 8:00 am #197659
I disliked the new trailer for Joy intensely, which surprised me. I had liked the silent trailer that they had been showing for several weeks, but the new one, with dialogue, made me feel bummed out. I esp. disliked the character Robert De Niro plays in the movie. In the clips, he’s obnoxious and abusive. Also, Jennifer Lawrence’s line deliveries felt over-emphatic and over-acted. The problem is that trailers often mislead, so I am trying to keep an open mind about it. Has the movie “sneak peeked” anywhere yet? It’s the only one that is being released here at Christmas time of these three movies. I plan on seeing it on Christmas morning.
I hated the trailers I have seen for The Revenant. But part of this is my total dislike of Inarritu’s filmmaking skills; I see him as the single most overrated director there is right now. He reflects our times too well and in ways that aren’t good (and in ways that make him win awards!). The trailer is ugly (is this really going to win Best Cinematography? Why?) and too brutal for massive love from audiences. It will do extremely well but I don’t think it will be a monster hit.
I haven’t seen any trailers yet for The Hateful Eight. I find all of Tarantino’s films wildly uneven. He’s another director who’s work I don’t really care for. And again: he reflects what’s wrong with us! I hated Django Unchained but agreed with Christoph Waltz’s Oscar win, and herein lies my difficulty with Tarantino. He gets certain characters and scenes right and wonderful, but the rest is dreck or all-out garbage (I know others don’t see it this way, but in dating a litmus test for me is if they start raving about some insipid – usually Kill Bill – Tarantino movie, I know that they aren’t the right one for me!). He’s very hit or miss at the box office, and I am really uncertain about this one.
And yes, Star Wars: The Force Awakens is going to be the biggest box office hit of all… and will garner four Oscar nominations: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score and Visual Effects!November 11, 2015 at 7:39 am #197660
Christmas Box Office Predictions:
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
5. The Big Short (wide release on Dec. 23rd)
7. Daddy’s Home
8. In the Heart of the Sea
9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part 2
10. The Good Dinosaur
* The Revenant and The Hateful Eight don’t have wide releases until the beginning of January*November 11, 2015 at 8:06 am #197661
To answer the question:
Box office – The Hateful Eight
Awards – The Revenant
The Hateful Eight will finish over $120m (based on $162.8m for Django, $120.5m for Inglourious)
– 0 wins out of 5 Oscar nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Sound Editing; possible sixth and seventh in Actor and Cinematography)
Joy will finish well over $100m as well, though I suspect doing less than its comparable titles American Hustle ($150.1m) and Silver Linings Playbook ($132.m) due to the lack of the added male box office draws that those two films had.
– 0 wins out of 5 Oscar nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay; possible sixth in Supporting Actress)
The Revenant is likely to finish as AGI’s highest earning film to date due to the star quality of Leo and Hardy’s rising status. I think it’ll top at around $90m.
– 3 wins out of 8 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing)
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