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January 24, 2018 at 9:56 pm #1202477944
What are u guys talking about. Lol they just nominated plummer to fuck with spacey. He aint winning. Not when there is another veteran they haven awarded.January 24, 2018 at 11:11 pm #1202477995
I recognize that he was not in the running for SAG. Of course I will predict him if he wins BAFTA. I look forward to more Three Billboards threads from you, wink wink.January 25, 2018 at 3:19 am #1202478061
He has zero chance of winning. He’s won recently, no overdue factor, his movie isn’t that good, and he’s hardly in it. Not to mention the Awards body that “loved” the movie (Golden Globes) and loves surprising picks chose Sam Rockwell instead. This is trying to make a race where there is none lolJanuary 25, 2018 at 3:35 am #1202478068This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 25, 2018 at 5:28 am #1202478139
I think there are a few things working against this scenario: Plummer already has an Oscar; he is the sole nominee from All the Money in the World; and the race is really between Dafoe and Rockwell imo. Unfortunately for Dafoe he is the sole nominee from his film too, which is why I am predicting Rockwell, but I still think Dafoe can win.January 25, 2018 at 7:35 am #1202478259
Doubtful. Plummer isn’t seen as due for a second Oscar, the film itself is garbage and all of the hooplah around the All the Money in the World post-production will have dissipated by Oscar night.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!January 25, 2018 at 8:07 am #1202478288
If there’s a possible Rockwell/Harrelson vote split at play, I see that primarily helping Willem Dafoe, not Christopher Plummer. BAFTA will be especially telling in this regard.January 25, 2018 at 8:29 am #1202478316
Unless some massive bomb like Norbit or sexual misconduct accusations are coming, nothing will stop the current (and definitive) frontrunners. I don’t think Rockwell is a sexual predator (anyway who knows?) and the only film he’ll appear until the Oscars is Duncan Jones’ Mute, which definitively is not another Norbit. And BAFTA only decide things in this category when the other precusors are divided. So no, Plummer is not winning and Rockwell will prevail at the end haters of 3BB.January 25, 2018 at 8:39 am #1202478327
I think Dafoe would have had a real chance if The Florida Project had shown up in any other categories. It seems like the other branches of the Academy were not high up on TFP and Dafoe really needs the membership to watch and like the movie to want to vote for him. We know that outside the Director’s Branch (which could be explained away in an Affleck-Argo like situation where they took his nomination for granted and decided to go with their passion picks as the Director’s Branch tends to do), Three Billboards has tons of support. Also a Best Pic nomination means more people will see it unlike TFP.
Plus, don’t we all remember when Dafoe was winning all those critics’ awards how people kept complaining how he wasn’t deserving of winning and how he didn’t do anything noteworthy in TFP? I’m not saying most people agree with that, but since there were enough people vocalizing that at the time, I can see Academy members (who are closer to the general population than the critics in terms of taste IMO) feeling the same way as well.
Also, vote splitting only happens if we know for sure that those who voted for Harrelson would have voted for Rockwell and vice versa and there were enough of both to get a third contender who had enough support to beat them in a plurality. I don’t think we can know that even if Rockwell and Harrelson both lose.
January 25, 2018 at 8:54 am #1202478357
- This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by SHT L.
Rockwell is more vulnerable than it seemed, but Plummer is the least likely of the other nominees to win.
Harrelson, Jenkins, and Dafoe are all veterans and all considered “due”. Rockwell being the youngest is the most likely to get another nomination in time. The other three play far more sympathetic character than Officer Dixon. Jenkins has TSOW support, Dafoe is a passion/critic pic, and Harrelson is adored by the industry.
Plummer’s a recent winner. His nomination isn’t for the performance but the stunt casting/10 day shoot. That’s all.
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