January 15, 2015 at 12:45 pm #173820
Birdman, Boyhood or The Grand Budapest Hotel – any of these three can WIN for Best Original Screenplay. Every vote is going to count and this one, I believe, is too close to call.
A case can be made for each of these three movies:
Boyhood imo is going to win for Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Film Editing – so the screenplay could win in a sweep.
Birdman could win this as a “runner-up” prize for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu; however, it has four writers – I don’ think that helps it’s chances. Also, of course, I hated this screenplay and found it totally pretentious, but mine is a minority opinion. Birdman will likely win Best Actor and perhaps (ugh!) Best Cinematography.
The Grand Budapest Hotel has a rich, varied, comedic, yet also dramatic, screenplay. Wes Anderson and his writing partner create a fascinating fun cinematic world with their script. I think this movie will win for Best Production Design, Best Costume Design (close race with Into the Woods), and Makeup & Hairstyling.
The other two nominees: Nightcrawler – so glad it wasn’t completely snubbed, since I LOVED this movie! and Foxcatcher – which had its moments, but not enough development for its supporting cast, and not explicit enough as far as homoeroticism is concerned. These two films have no chance at all imo.
I’m currently predicting Boyhood, because I loved it, but I suspect Birdman will win this category.January 15, 2015 at 12:54 pm #173822
This really is the toughest category. I’m leaning towards Budapest, but we shall see how everything shakes out in the coming weeks.January 15, 2015 at 1:08 pm #173823
Inarritu has this one in the bag. This is HIS Oscar for the night. Birdman was a lot of things, but the script was everything.January 15, 2015 at 1:17 pm #173824
Inarritu has this one in the bag. This is HIS Oscar for the night. Birdman was a lot of things, but the script was everything.
I feel the opposite, though. Birdman feels a lot more like a directorial achievement than a written one, and movies with four writers attached don’t often come out too well in the Screenplay categories. If he wins, I imagine it won’t be by that much.January 15, 2015 at 1:19 pm #173825
I say Birdman wins original screenplay. Linklater is the frontrunner for director, so I think people will still want to award Inarritu for his vision in some way, and this is the most likely way to do it.January 15, 2015 at 1:22 pm #173826
I agree, with Linklater seeming to be the frontrunner for Director, Inarritu will get his award with screenplay.January 15, 2015 at 1:29 pm #173827
Yeah, I think Birdman is gonna lose. Regardless of how one might feel about the film, the writing structure is pretty much not the film’s big selling point. Among the big three contenders here, it’s actually the most traditional one writing-wise, and voters here often go for quirky, or artsy, or showy in narrative. I wouldn’t be surprised if Linklater won this category as well, in a Coens-type of sweep. The writing does cover 12 years of someone’s life, and I can see a lot of writers voting for him because of that, for sheer ambition of the undertaking (it didn’t just take 12 years to shoot, it actually took him 12 years to write it as well). But ultimately, I think Anderson will win. It has quirky characterization, fast-paced dialogue, a story that does a lot of twists and turns, it’s comedic but has a bit of an emotional punch, it has a LOT of different characters but still one clear point of view… plus, the few times Anderson films showed up at the Oscars, it was in writing. With the film being the nomination leader, and Linklater likely to win Picture and Director, I think Anderson is taking this.January 15, 2015 at 1:35 pm #173828
I agree, with Linklater seeming to be the frontrunner for Director, Inarritu will get his award with screenplay.
Keep in mind, that’s what a lot of people were saying last year about David O. Russell, which didn’t pan out.
On the main subject, I don’t think Boyhood is that serious a contender here. The narrative around it has positioned it as a feat of directing, not writing, and since it’s the same guy nominated for both, people will focus on director, which he seems guaranteed to win.
I’d say it’s between The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman. Those films have the same number of nominations, though the latter is stronger in the top categories. Conversely, Keaton looks like a reasonably safe bet to win Actor, so that may be the film’s “big” win there; I could see people voting for Anderson as a corresponding win for TGBH (its other likely/possible wins are in tech categories).January 15, 2015 at 1:52 pm #173829
The David O. Russell situation was the first thing that crossed my mind when I read the comments about the Screenplay win being a way to make it up for Iñárritu. I have a feeling Birdman could only win cinematography if Redmayne beats Keaton, and I don’t think they’ll necessarily want to make sure Iñarritu has an individual Oscar before Anderson. Both films have the same amount of nominations, but Anderson’s is more of a writing showcase. I’ll wait for WGA to decide, of course, but I think The Grand Budapest Hotel has the advantage so far.January 15, 2015 at 1:52 pm #173830
^ I was going to mention David O. Russell – I agree, I think Iñárritu will suffer the same fate. I’m not sure Birdman’s script is a great one, but it is fascinating and insightful, if a little on-the-nose at times. But like Renaton says, structurally it’s not especially noteworthy, and American Hustle’s screenplay was criticized by some for the same reason. Iñárritu’s direction and Lubezki’s cinematography are what really make the film cohesive and satisfying as a whole. Also Boyhood’s script is not as obvious a major feat of writing as Grand Budapest, despite being written over 12 years. To me Grand Budapest has no obvious disadvantages in this race other than being against 2 films arguably higher up in the Best Picture derby, which didn’t hurt Her or Django Unchained. Wes Anderson is just the sort of quirky auteur that frequently wins this category.January 15, 2015 at 2:01 pm #173831
I have a feeling Birdman could only win cinematography if Redmayne beats Keaton.
Not sure about this though. What else could win cinematography? I doubt Robert Yeoman wins, despite the love for Grand Budapest. Roger Deakins finally winning for Unbroken would seem very odd. Ida is like The White Ribbon all over again, except even less likely because it wasn’t even nominated for ASC (White Ribbon won that). And as for Dick Poop (sorry, couldn’t resist) – well, I don’t think Mr Turner has the support, though he might be the second likeliest. But I don’t see how Michael Keaton’s winning could influence this category.January 15, 2015 at 2:05 pm #173832
I think Wes Anderson is Spike Jonze in this category with Innaritu as David O RussellJanuary 15, 2015 at 2:08 pm #173833
I think they are still going to give this to Wes. Honestly, I think the score category is the closest raceJanuary 15, 2015 at 2:35 pm #173834
I would be very disappointed if Boyhood wins this. I found a lot of the dialogue to be very unrealistic and a little preachy.January 15, 2015 at 2:39 pm #173835
[quote=”Renato_Miranda”] I have a feeling Birdman could only win cinematography if Redmayne beats Keaton.
Not sure about this though. What else could win cinematography? I doubt Robert Yeoman wins, despite the love for Grand Budapest. Roger Deakins finally winning for Unbroken would seem very odd. Ida is like The White Ribbon all over again, except even less likely because it wasn’t even nominated for ASC (White Ribbon won that). And as for Dick Poop (sorry, couldn’t resist) – well, I don’t think Mr Turner has the support, though he might be the second likeliest. But I don’t see how Michael Keaton’s winning could influence this category. [/quote]
I see now that was phrased badly. I meant that if Redmayne wins, I think the only Birdman win will be in cinematography.
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