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Correlation or causation between GG / CC and Oscars?

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    Nameizmann
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    Do you think Golden Globes or CC support actually cause Oscars support, or do you think they’re merely correlated with each other?

    I see a lot of people claim the former. For instance: I read many people here say that Laurie Metcalf was on her way to win BA in 2018, then Golden Globes “changed the momentum” by giving Janney her win, and every precursor blindly followed suit, causing Janney to prevail at the Oscars.

    I can’t completely discredit that idea, but for the most part I don’t think that’s the case. Rather, GG just gave us a clue that Janney had much more industry support than we had realized. But GG in no way “caused” Janney to win.

    My cases in point are The Kings’ Speech and Birdman. GG (and later BAFTA) shunned them in favor of The Social Network and Boyhood. But DGA, PGA, and SAG didn’t seem to care about that at all, awarding the eventual Oscar winners.

    Another example is The Green Book in Screenplay category. After it won Screenplay at GG, it lost WGA and BAFTA. So GG didn’t cause any momentum to shift in terms of nabbing precursors. But it still won Screenplay at the Oscars in the end. Here, again, GG seemed to be just correlated with the Oscars.

    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Nameizmann.
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    m844
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    I think the GG, CC, and BAFTA try too hard to be “predictor” awards for the Oscars. I think that the voters of the awards that precede the Oscars are influenced by the results of the GG and CC. They have the ability to change the momentum of the nominated movies, and are also very important in terms of stats. For example, the last 14 Oscar Best Picture winners have been nominated for both Screenplay and Director at the GG.

    The quad of Phoenix-Zellweger-Pitt-Dern all won this year starting at the GG, then steamrolled their way through the CC, BAFTA, SAG, and Oscars. However, it was actually Adam Driver and Lupita Nyong’o who won the majority of the critics awards.

    Similarly, the five Director nominees at GG all got in at CC, the BAFTA, and the Oscars, with only the DGA switching out Todd Phillips for Taika Waititi. Hildur Guodnadottir won at GG, then won everywhere else.

    I think that the GG and CC do influence people to vote in one way or the other, but like everything else, it’s not 100% accurate. It sets the tone. Neither GG winner for Musical/Comedy (Awkwafina and Taron Egerton) got in at the Oscars. I just think there’s too much groupthink and people don’t want to “lose relevance” by not being an accurate predictor of the Oscars, so these award shows monitor the precursor results, and then sometimes vote to reflect that. Why do you think Mendes & BJH were tied for Director at the CC, after Mendes won the GG? How else do you explain the fact that there’s so much of a correlation between the Oscar nominees/winners and the GG/CC nominees/winners?

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    Lil Tony
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    Surprisingly, a lone CC nom translates into Oscar nomination than a lone GG or SAG….or even GG and SAG combined. However, this mostly works for female newcomers. Once they fail to hit CC, they’re done. Combination of CC and GG works too

    FYC:

    Riz Ahmed- Best Actor for Sound Of Metal
    Daniel Kaluuya - Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah
    Amanda Seyfried - Best Supporting Actress for Mank

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    Nameizmann
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    Surprisingly, a lone CC nom translates into Oscar nomination than a lone GG or SAG….or even GG and SAG combined. However, this mostly works for female newcomers. Once they fail to hit CC, they’re done. Combination of CC and GG works too

    This is really interesting. Do you have examples in mind?

    I think the GG, CC, and BAFTA try too hard to be “predictor” awards for the Oscars. I think that the voters of the awards that precede the Oscars are influenced by the results of the GG and CC. They have the ability to change the momentum of the nominated movies, and are also very important in terms of stats. For example, the last 14 Oscar Best Picture winners have been nominated for both Screenplay and Director at the GG.

    The quad of Phoenix-Zellweger-Pitt-Dern all won this year starting at the GG, then steamrolled their way through the CC, BAFTA, SAG, and Oscars. However, it was actually Adam Driver and Lupita Nyong’o who won the majority of the critics awards.

    Looking back, my question was pretty trivial, because of course they’re going to affect Oscar chances to some degree, and the only question is how much. I also agree that voters of CC are sheeps.

    Regarding actors sweeping, I think it could be that way because every contingent preferred that nominee to others. But I guess we can never know until some year later when, e.g. for one reason or the other GG results come out after Oscar voting ends.

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