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Death of the Derby

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    Michael Norris
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    #219481

    What I find hillarious is the same people that claim past movies are irrelevant and for that reason Leo’s win is “undeserved” claim Rylance deserved to win over Stallone because “his career has been great” and Stallone “has made awful action movies”. So do these arguments only apply to actors we like and nobody else? Very hypocritical

    Rylance’s career isn’t an argument for why he should have won. It’s an argument for why Stallone getting a career Oscar made no sense. 

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    Tony Ruiz
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    #219482

    While I don’t think that the derby has died, I think we’ve given PGA way too much credit over the years.  They’ve only used the preferential ballot in the last few years.  That’s not long enough for there to be a real established precedent.  The Big Short just didn’t have the love that Spotlight had.  

    But rather than mourn the death of prognostication, let’s celebrate the idea that every so often, the Oscars throws us a curveball. 

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    #219483
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    Rooney Moore
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    #219484

    Agreed with the original post, it was fun worshipping the stats. But nothing can beat the surprise winners. It was my fav. ceremomy since 2007. But I also agree with AMG that this was just an anomaly year, with few but all very vulnerable frontrunners. We’ll probably go back to that old road next year again, so we still need you demonhog. Do not get tired of stats! IMO your analyses are the most fun thing about this site.

    It’s still 1 or 2 out of 10 that PGA, DGA or BAFTA were proven to be wrong. That doesn’t necessarily kill their meanings altogether(I wish) It just means that we will all be considering the every kind of possibility no matter what math tells us next time, which is so exciting! Btw, you can make hundreds of arguments like “Buzz was on Spotlight’s side” “It had a social topic” “Media was hyping about it” but they also ignored Stallone, Gaga, and Star Wars on the same night so yeah, let’s just say they liked the movie more and be done with it.
    The thing I liked most was, though, that seeing the end of that tradition of BP winner sweeping all categories it was nominated with, because actually Spotligh didn’t deserve any more than 2 Oscars. And a movie doesn’t have to have an art direction or cinematography nomination to be the considered to best film of the year. It’s good that the Academy finally understood that, too. Apparently below the line voters can enjoy a normal looking movie just fine.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    #219485

    I like that there were a few more surprises than usual this year. Years like 2014, where pretty much all the expected winners won (with the exception of Mr Hublot) are hard to get excited about. This felt like voters did their own thing for the most part, especially with outside the box winners like Mark Rylance (VERY rare for a performance that subtle to win) and Ex Machina (huge coup for a small film like that). 

    As for Spotlight’s win, it’s tough. A lot of people are Monday morning quarterbacking, saying it was obvious in hindsight but I really don’t think it was. The stats did support this being between The Big Short and The Revenant, but here we are. I’m not sure what the lesson to take is from Spotlight’s victory in spite of the precursors, other than the importance of actor/SAG support, but it seems that what many people were saying was true. Nobody truly HATED Spotlight like some did with Big Short/Revenant, and that’s what put it over the top. So I guess we should remember that next year when it gets down to two or three movies contending for Best Picture?

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    RobertPius
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    #219486

    Two things right off the bat: First, Spotlight is a fine film.  It was not my favourite, but that never wins and is usually not even close.  On the contrary, it is the first Best Picture to make my personal top ten in years.  This it not about its quality.  Second, my score is worse than I would wish that anyone who cares about this would get, so have a good laugh.  But I was happy to be wrong about many things (Stallone being willed by the media to a win after years of bad movies, Lady Gaga losing to a better song despite being “important”, a superior documentary overcoming a Holocaust name check, Mad Max deservedly taking the sound categories and so on).  This is not about that either.

    I became frustrated this season with the pundits because they ignored the derby.  They shrugged off Spotlight‘s under-performance in the SAG nominations, Globe nominations, ACE nominations, BAFTA nominations, Globe awards, PGA awards and BAFTA awards.  What is the point of looking at the derby day-to-day if you are not going to acknowledge what is happening in the derby day-to-day?

    The media also shrugged off George Miller’s BAFTA snub and created and aggressively pushed narratives that were never true in the industry, like the academy owing Ridley Scott and Sylvester Stallone.  It is this whole idea that the media can never be wrong.  So when it turns out that they are way off about something, like Ridley Scott, it is not that they were way off in that prediction; it is that the academy was wrong because he was “supposed” to be nominated.  Tom has touched on the fallacy of the “echo chamber” in a couple of videos.

    Turns out that the derby does not matter; the precursors are not indicative.  (For the record, losing PGA is not the issue because maybe it was off by a few votes; it is that coupled with the ACE snub and the dual BAFTA snubs and so on.  Mine and others’ dismissal of Spotlight was absolute for many reasons.)  And that means that all of what I have been writing these last few months has been kind of bullshit, so sorry about that.  Spotlight was the film that most struck me as “Best Picture” when I saw it in the fall and it did well in the Oscar nominations and that is all that you need.  It has been fun the last few years using logicdisappointing for that to be over.

    I’ve read your stuff the last few years and have been impressed by your grasp of statistics and logic to predict things.  I know you only have been following Oscars a few years. I think you’ll see if you look at past years there are times when it is logical and then years where it just goes a little crazy and stuff like Rylance or Juliette Binoche happen. Don’t give up! 

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    Asgaroth
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    #219487

    PGA fell.
    PGA or DGA fell (at least since Brokeback).
    ACE fell.
    BAFTA directing nomination fell.
    Unofficial at-least-3-wins fell.

    Screenplay nomination requirement prevailed.
    WGA nomination requirement prevailed.
    SAG ensemble nomination prevailed.
    At least 86 MC and 90% RT score trends prevailed.
    No back-to-back best picture to the same director prevailed.

    Globes and BAFTA once again proved to be meaningless.

    But in the end, I think the most important lesson learned this season is that one must never, never underestimate the power of that preferential ballot. The Revenant probably came with the most #1 in first round, but as divisive as it was, it was foolish to believe it wasn’t going to have a hard time capturing the #2’s and #3’s.

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    #219488
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    #219490
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    CanadianFan
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    #219489

    Very surreal reading this, but I pretty much agree with all of it.

    The Academy seems to be its own independent thing that is free of precursor influence (to an extent). That is great when it comes to surprises and unpredictability, but it shatters the legitimacy of PGA, BAFTA, etc. as tea leaves, so to speak. 

    From now on, the fun of the Derby might just be comparing awards shows with themselves, because ‘Spotlight’ should not have been able to overcome all of those key losses to ‘The Revenant’ and ‘The Big Short’.

    Well… they’re not so key anymore.  

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    #219491
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    Damiansport1
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    #219492

    [quote=”SxECanadianFanSxE”]

    This is my 5th year in a row of getting the Oscars Best Picture category wrong. I got The Artist right, but then Lincoln/Gravity/Boyhood/Revenant happened. “sigh”

     

    Lol really? why did you picked Boyhood?

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    JackO
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    #219493

    Yup. It’s back to the drawing board. Not even guilds can be trusted that much anymore. Too many rules broken. Maybe the only rule should be watching a movie and that movie being good.

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    MarcusJamesDixon
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    #219494

    Damiansport1, why would you LOL at that? “Boyhood” had a 45% chance of winning last year, compared to “Birdman’s” 47% chance. That’s the very definition of a two-way race. A lot of people are trying to change the narrative to say “Birdman” was a lock to win, but not if you go back and actually look at the stats:

    http://www.goldderby.com/odds/index/200/

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    Damiansport1
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    #219495

    I was rooting for Boyhood but Birdman won PGA, SAG and DGA so for me Birdman was strong favourite. But i picked Linklater b/c tought they are gonna give him something for this whole 12 years thing

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