February 23, 2017 at 3:05 pm #1202019982
As you all know, the Oscars are on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be as much fun without a few upsets. So what upsets are you guys predicting, and why? It’s time to defend your craziest predictions.
I’ll start. I don’t think that Arrival is going to be shut out, and I think it’s going to take one from La La Land. My best bet is Production Design, but I could see it taking Editing instead.
I’m also predicting Casey Affleck for Best Actor.
Have fun and good luck with your predictions!February 23, 2017 at 3:34 pm #1202019993
LLL takes screenplay,
Michael Shannon wins supporting (going down with the ship),
Affleck wins actor (so many pundits are picking Denzel now it’s actually kind of an upset lol)February 23, 2017 at 4:08 pm #1202020002
I’m considering Negga and Shannon.February 23, 2017 at 4:16 pm #1202020005
I’m predicting Kubo and the Two Strings for best Visual Effects. There isn’t really a recent precedent for stop motion animation in this category but in recent years the animation branch has grown larger and if they all rallied behind Kubo it could pull off an upset. With that being said there does seem to be a lot of love for The Jungle Book so I am probably way off.February 23, 2017 at 4:29 pm #1202020016
La La Land – Sound Editing
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEPFebruary 23, 2017 at 4:29 pm #1202020017
I changed back to Affleck, hoping he wins.
https://letterboxd.com/janbryan/February 23, 2017 at 4:52 pm #1202020029
I’m not predicting Kubo in Visual Effects but I am predicting it for Animated Feature over Zootopia – I switched a few days ago. The excuse for it winning BAFTA was considered by some to be vote-splitting between the three Disney movies, while at the Oscars there are only two as Finding Dory is absent, so a vote-split is supposedly less likely. But this line of thinking doesn’t convince me, because wasn’t Zootopia meant to be way ahead of the other two? And honestly I think that probably was the case even at BAFTA, even though it didn’t win. It might just suggest that Kubo is a far stronger player in the race than most of us realise. Of all the nominees it should hold the most appeal to the tech branches, not only evidenced by its Visual Effects nod but also its Costume Designers Guild nomination. It also feels like the classiest choice, at least out of the more mainstream nominees in the category (i.e. not Red Turtle and Zucchini). I know Zootopia’s meant to capture the zeitgeist, but is that what voters are really looking for in this category? I have a suspicion that a few voters might find the analogies to human bigotry and prejudice in Zootopia a little annoying and over-the-top. Not a majority, but just enough to pull it down a few notches from its unbeatable frontrunner status.
The biggest argument against Kubo I guess is its disappointing box office totals, as well as being less popular than Zootopia and Moana with kids, with whom Academy members often watch their screeners. But again, you could have made the same arguments against it winning BAFTA, whose almost perfect track-record with matching the Oscar-winner shouldn’t be smirked at. (It would probably be 100% perfect if The Lego Movie hadn’t been snubbed at the Oscars.) I expect most people voting in this category will at least want to watch the three more mainstream contenders before marking their ballots. Tom O’Neil was saying in a slugfest the other day that it’s more common for voters to leave categories blank than we might think. There are people who might only watch Zootopia but still not vote for it.February 23, 2017 at 7:53 pm #1202020148
Vote split in Best Actor. Gosling takes the Oscar.February 23, 2017 at 8:01 pm #1202020151
I am going no guts no glory and predicting “Hidden Figures” for screenplay over Arrival and Moonlight. It is the most popular movie, outstanding box office, still in the theaters, was probably seen in a theater by most academy members vs a stack of screeners at home, will get the majority of female votes while Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival all split, it beat Moonlight and Fences at NAACP for best picture and won the outstanding cast at SAG awards over both as well. Voters will have voted for La La Land for Pic, Denzel or Casey for Actor, Moonlight or Lion for Supporting Actor and Viola also for Fences for supporting actress. If they want to spread the wealth and give one win to the most popular movie this is the one and only chance. Women of Color, Historical Value, Rewrite a wrong, Box office.
Going Big…or Going home. 🙂February 23, 2017 at 8:22 pm #1202020167
Hidden Figures wins Best Picture- much like the SAG-Oscar combo that Spotlight pulled off in 2016 despite The Big Short winning PGA.
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March 1, 2019February 23, 2017 at 8:51 pm #1202020177
I’m sticking with Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.February 23, 2017 at 9:32 pm #1202020205
PJ is me. The only prediction of mine I can classify as cray, is La La Land for Sound Editing. All of the others make sense since their sound is so obvious, but sweep. La La Land for Original Screenplay is my honorable mention. Manchester by the Sea is a bonafide writing achievement. A total kitchen and sink drama, but I don’t know if that writer is a revered as many say he is and the film as a whole has been decreasing in buzz in phase two.February 23, 2017 at 9:45 pm #1202020209
I have La La Land winning Sound Editing. The sound categories rarely split when the mixing winner is nominated for editing. And it’s the entire Academy voting, many of whom don’t know the difference and are likely to think “musical? both sound categories.” (Caveat: if it does lose, I think it loses both. I expect both of these categories to go to the same movie.)
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