Home Forums Movies Did Ex-Machina’s VE win have the longest odds for the Oscars of any winner?

Did Ex-Machina’s VE win have the longest odds for the Oscars of any winner?

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  • FreemanGriffin22
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    #219454

    At least in the 21 categories that weren’t for short films? I was shocked by Ex-Machina’s Visual Effects win! I haven’t seen the movie but I was certain it would be any of the other four! Any theories has to how this particular upset happened? While there were a few mild upsets, did it feel to others that this was the biggest upset of all?

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    Eddy Q
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    #219456

    The last time I updated my Visual Effects prediction (choosing The Revenant!) Ex Machina was joint 4th with The Martian at 66/1 odds. I’m pretty certain that as long as I’ve been on Gold Derby (4 Oscar seasons’ worth) there hasn’t been another winner with longer odds. 

    I’m delighted it won, though I’m still waiting for the Academy to announce that there’s been a mistake with the vote counting. It flies in the face of all statistics in this category. For the last 20 years, the Visual Effects nominee with the most nominations has almost always won the award, even when it wasn’t widely expected to (Hugo being the prime example). The only exceptions were when they really didn’t want to award a Michael Bay film (Armageddon, Transformers) and when two BP nominees went head-to-head in a close race with no other nominees in the category (Babe winning over Apollo 13). The only explanation I can think of is that in a year with three BP nominees all competing for Visual Effects with no clear favourite, the usual trends get bucked. That and the narrative surrounding Ex Machina’s incredible achievement on such a low budget helped it to win. Though I expect it was mighty close, perhaps within less than 10 votes.

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    Riley
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    #219457

    After five years of the Gold Derby predictions centre, the biggest upsets ever according to the odds are:

    1. Ex Machina, Visual Effects, 2015 (66/1)
    2. Mark Rylance, Supporting Actor, 2015 (16/1)
    3. Mr Hublot, Animated Short, 2013 (16/1)
    4. “Writing’s on the Wall”, Original Song, 2015 (11/1)
    5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Film Editing, 2011 (10/1)
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    Tyler [Last Name]
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    #219458

    Ex machina is simply the biggest Oscar shock in recent memory.

    FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)

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    Manuel Colon
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    #219459

    Star Wars and Mad Max cancelled each other, that’s what i thought.

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    DamianWayne
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    #219460

    I’m dying to see the votes total here. If you told me this only won by 1 vote, I’d believe you.

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    Riley
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    #219461

    Even if the rest split the vote, Ex Machina still got at least twenty percent of the vote.  Even that is hard to believe.

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    Eddy Q
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    #219462

    ^ Which is why this result can’t only be down to vote splitting. A major factor might be that Ex Machina, and its visual effects specifically, play better on a screener than all the other nominees. I can imagine a voter finally catching up with the film at home and then immediately marking it on their ballot. 

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #219463

    I think most voters tried to vote for the most visual effects but there was no consensus on which movie that was. I bet it was very evenly split. Ex Machina probably won by a very miniscule percentage.

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    Jake
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    #219464

    I can’t believe it, I am ecstatic about this win and the fact that “Ex Machina” is Oscar-winning movie (while many great films like “Carol” or “Brooklyn” aren’t). I’m grateful for those shocking upsets for deserving people – this win, Rylance, “Spotlight” for BP. To balance it out, there were awful shocks (ekhm… Sam Smith) but at least voters made their own decisions more than in recent years.

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