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Do you expect any upsets at the Oscars this year?

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    Jazzy
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    #1202774654

    You’re correct. I am very tempted to go BlacKkKlansman here, if it wins the WGA. Since 1995, only two films have won Best Picture without scoring nominations for PGA, DGA, and SAGE. 80% of the time, the Best Picture winner scored nominations for director, writing, and screenplay.

    BKKK hasn’t won squat!!!! And yet, you assume that it’s going to come out of nowhere to win BP? You can’t compare it to the Spotlight year because in this year’s case, we clearly have a frontrunner (Roma) with a slightly weaker other frontrunner (Greenbook). BKKK didn’t win a Best Film award ANYWHERE, not even with critics.

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    Joe Burns
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    #1202774662

    Just because a movie is consistently well liked across the board doesn”t mean it will triumph at the Oscars. I personally have always been skeptical of people constantly saying the preferential ballot is such a game changer when it comes to Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, The King”s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, Moonlight, and even The Shape Of Water would have won Best Picture in a winner take all system as there were strong narratives/passion behind all of those films that are the real reasons why they won Best Picture. Only Spotlight could have lost Best Picture under a winner take all system although even that is arguable.

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202774676

    Just because a movie is consistently well liked across the board doesn”t mean it will triumph at the Oscars. I personally have always been skeptical of people constantly saying the preferential ballot is such a game changer when it comes to Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, The King”s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, Moonlight, and even The Shape Of Water would have won Best Picture in a winner take all system as there were strong narratives/passion behind all of those films that are the real reasons why they won Best Picture. Only Spotlight could have lost Best Picture under a winner take all system although even that is arguable.

    As much as I love MOONLIGHT, I think it definitely could have lost to LA LA LAND in a winner-take-all contest depending on what the other 3 nominees would have been.

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    Joe Burns
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    #1202774700

    Nope- support was weaker for La La Land after it getting 14 nominations(which was a bit excessive) and the political climate at the time pushed the liberal leaning Academy into honoring Moonlight which had the diversity angle in addition to it being an LGBT film.Voters greatly admired the film and were passionate about it too.

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    nkb325
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    #1202774701

    I’m predicting Marinda De Tavira to upset, although I know I’m not the only person doing this. I managed to predict her nomination so I’m just riding that all the way to the finish line

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1202774705

    Just because a movie is consistently well liked across the board doesn”t mean it will triumph at the Oscars. I personally have always been skeptical of people constantly saying the preferential ballot is such a game changer when it comes to Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, The King”s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, Moonlight, and even The Shape Of Water would have won Best Picture in a winner take all system as there were strong narratives/passion behind all of those films that are the real reasons why they won Best Picture. Only Spotlight could have lost Best Picture under a winner take all system although even that is arguable.

    I think The Social Network would’ve won under the regular system

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202774732

    Just because a movie is consistently well liked across the board doesn”t mean it will triumph at the Oscars. I personally have always been skeptical of people constantly saying the preferential ballot is such a game changer when it comes to Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, The King”s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, Moonlight, and even The Shape Of Water would have won Best Picture in a winner take all system as there were strong narratives/passion behind all of those films that are the real reasons why they won Best Picture. Only Spotlight could have lost Best Picture under a winner take all system although even that is arguable.

    I don’t think Moonlight and Spotlight would won in a winner takes it all ballot

    The Oscar needs to get rid of the preferential ballot so it can name a deserving movie as Best Picture again.

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    Matthew Miller
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    #1202774758

    I hope not, Roma, Regina, Rami and Glenn for the win.

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    Matthew anzalone
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    #1202774792

    If anyone but Ali wins supporting actor, That would be an upset considering He has won every single best supporting actor award thus far. Deep down, Im hoping for a Sam Elliott or Richard E Grant win.

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    PoweR
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    #1202774799

    None in the acting categories, sorry.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1202774827

    None in the acting categories, sorry.

    Smug and self-satisfied, you are.

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    PoweR
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    #1202774834

    Smug and self-satisfied, you are.

    “Smug and self-satisfied” because I don’t think Oscars will see any “upsets” in the acting categories? Please make it make sense.

    Dumb and easily triggered, you are.

    And Regina’s taking Supporting Actress.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1202774844

    “Smug and self-satisfied” because I don’t think Oscars will see any “upsets” in the acting categories? Please make it make sense.

    Dumb and easily triggered, you are.

    And Regina’s taking Supporting Actress.

    Wait and see. It’s not a forgone conclusion. Especially with the BAFTA and SAG snubs.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by Gabe Guarin.
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    PoweR
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    #1202774848

    Wait and see. It’s not a forgone conclusion.

    Yes, we WILL see.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1202774852

    Yes, we WILL see.

    Your tone offends me.

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