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Early Oscar Predictions

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    GusCruz
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    #1201920846

    I hope we don’t have to deal with the Affleck nightmare again next awards season.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201920848

    Nightmare? That was a fun season.

    Now nightmare would be that gross book Silence doing well with its adaptation.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201920858

    Nightmare? That was a fun season.

    Now nightmare would be that gross book Silence doing well with its adaptation.

    1) Affleck won because his movie was the least offensive, most mediocre one of the bunch, the one “everyone could support”.

    2) Silence is a great book IMO.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201920864

    Mmm, the torture and murder of Japanese Christians, but it’s somehow about the white missionaries! It’s kinda like if 12 Years a Slave was told from the POV of Brad Pitt’s character.

    But I’m biased. I think the three biggest robberies in the BP/BD fields are Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain (win), Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger (win), and Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility (nom).

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    GusCruz
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    #1201920875

    Mmm, the torture and murder of Japanese Christians, but it’s somehow about the white missionaries! It’s kinda like if 12 Years a Slave was told from the POV of Brad Pitt’s character.

    That’s the kind of complaint you could make if the author were a Western guy. Not the case.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201920877

    I really disagree.

    That’s like saying one person being part of a minority saying something is okay means clearly “all of them people” must be fine with it.

    Like, say, when the Oscars had that racist Asian joke, some racists were like “whatever, clearly the kids signed off on it so they were fine with it, so all Asians should be fine with it too.”

    Or, y’know, homophobic gay-bashers who, gasp, are gay themselves. “Well if these people are gay and hate gays, it’s fine to hate gays”? NO.

    Or hearkening going back to my post, black slaveowners existed in America. That did not make it okay.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201920890

    I really disagree.

    That’s like saying one person being part of a minority saying something is okay means clearly “all of them people” must be fine with it.

    Like, say, when the Oscars had that racist Asian joke, some racists were like “whatever, clearly the kids signed off on it so they were fine with it, so all Asians should be fine with it too.”

    Or, y’know, homophobic gay-bashers who, gasp, are gay themselves. “Well if these people are gay and hate gays, it’s fine to hate gays”? NO.

    Or hearkening going back to my post, black slaveowners existed in America. That did not make it okay.

    But you’re assuming I agree with you that the book takes a racist perspective, which I actually fully disagree. In fact, it wouldn’t have become such a respected piece of literature even in Japan if that were the case.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201921101

    Slight change of topic; I’ve been wondering for some time now what it is about Steve Martin’s role in Billy Lynn that’s put him in first place in the predictions centre. Maybe someone who’s read the source novel can tell me, because I’d really like to know if this isn’t just one of those looks-good-on-paper scenarios that ends up not being a thing. After all, Martin is billed after Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund and Vin Diesel.

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    twenty
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    #1201921133

    Only Casey Afflek this Season Please.

    …OKay Will wait for the reviews for Live By Night.

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    AwardsConnect
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    #1201921182

    Casey affleck is not winning anything quit being delusional

    Are you Mel Gibson?

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2010) – Ahem, Where is Cher?

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    Rowan
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    #1201921186

    Casey affleck is not winning anything quit being delusional

    Are you Mel Gibson?

    That actually makes a lot more sense than anything this guy has said. Affleck is the frontrunner to win with nobody currently threatening him. That could change, but right now he’s a safe bet.

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    jasonface
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    #1201921231

    Casey affleck is not winning anything quit being delusional

    Are you Mel Gibson?

    I’ve been wondering this for so long.

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    Rowan
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    #1201921281

    The smart bet is an actor who is playing a real life person is gonna win because the last 5 best actor winners all played real people

    Also keep in mind that 1/6 is not statistically significant. Just because only 1 of the last 6 BA winners played real people doesn’t mean it’s incredibly unlikely for someone to win playing a fictional character this year. Mathematically, it’s not a definite trend until less than 1/20 BA winners play fictional characters.

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    M: The Original
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    #1201921425

    Why many pundits still think Emma Stone is the frontrunner? Anyone has any answers? because I’ve read the reviews for La La Land and all the praise is for Chazelle and the film. I don’t doubt Emma Stone is great in the film and deserves a nomination but a win against Natalie Portman(portraying a real life icon) and Viola Davis (for playing a very dramatic character) doesn’t make sense to me.

    This race is very similar to 2002, Nicole Kidman in the Hours (real life character) VS Julianne Moore in Far from Heaven (very dramatic character) VS Renee Zellweger in Chicago(musical).

    Nicole Kidman- Won the BAFTA , Golden Globe, and Oscar.

    Julianne Moore- Won the critics choice

    Renne Zellweger- won the SAG.

    I think there’s a possibility something like this could happen this year.

    Stone has momentum from her Birdman nomination. She seems too quirky of a presence to ever win for something traditional for awards consideration. Could she theoretically get pushed out by other competitors by nomination morning? Yes, but the smart money is to keep her in the conversation because she’s likely to get the love Streep would have gotten for Florence Jenkins.

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    Rowan
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    #1201921503

    It looks like Stone is good enough in La La Land to deserve a mostly-unquestioned nomination, especially if La La Land starts sweeping. The real question is if Ryan Gosling is good enough to get in, and since Lion/Dev Patel appears to be falling through, the Best Actor field is looking to be weak enough for him to nab a “Congratulations on being good in such a great movie” nomination.

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