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Early Oscar Predictions

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    M: The Original
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    #1201921681

    That year was a disgrace for me. I hate that Streep performance and that stupid movie. I did not want Davis to win for that awful movie and for playing a help. The rest of the category was meh as well. I guess I would’ve probably voted for Close because she’s so overdue.

    I did root for Davis when she was up against Penelope Cruz, but, looking back. I love underdogs. But I also love crazy women in Woody Allen films lol.

    I’m fine with Cruz beating Davis. Davis is a packaged deal with Streep that year. And since it was Winslet’s turn Cruz was the clear alternative.

    Who’d make your personal lineup for Best Actress 2011?

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    M: The Original
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    #1201921683

    I’m ok with Davis or Benning beating Portman. But Emma Stone beating those women would be a tragedy.

    You’re my forever friend with this post!

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    twenty
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    #1201921700

    Emma Stone (Only American Volpi Winner in last 10 years) who has already won over Portman in a major competition and is getting great reviews. Her win would be a tragedy?? (that too) Over unseen competition ??!!

    …. Well sometimes people do say things that……..

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    forwardswill
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    #1201921703

    Let’s not overestimate this Volpi thing. Stone could certainly end up the winner but her winning a cup at Venice that very rarely matches the Oscars will have nothing to do with it.

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    Rowan
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    #1201921708

    Emma Stone has a definite chance. Not because of the Volpi, but because of the film she’s in (which, as a whole, has been more acclaimed than Jackie) and her performance itself. The media and critics are raving more about Portman because Jackie is Portman’s show, but Oscar voters look at it differently. Both of these women have good chances to win and are basically locks for nominations.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201921722

    Who’d make your personal lineup for Best Actress 2011?

    I’m not going to remember but I was never on the Portman train.

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    M: The Original
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    #1201921739

    Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane. Another Best Actress contender.

    http://awardswatch.com/news/jessica-chastain-is-coming-for-your-guns-in-the-miss-sloane-trailer/

    She looks strong in the trailer. Always a plus when generating momentum.

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    AMG
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    #1201921746

    Imagine if all of the other acting races became as packed and competitive as Best Actress! That would make for one hell of an Oscar season.

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    Rowan
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    #1201921751

    Who’s going to win Best Actor this year?

    Casey Affleck vs Denzel Washington?

    This field is the weakest it has ever been.

    I don’t know, last year was pretty weak. Imo, DiCaprio was the only one that deserved to win. Right now, I’d say Affleck has the best chance to win over Washington, but there are performances from people like the other Affleck and Michael Keaton that we haven’t seen yet.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201921756

    2006 was super weak. 4 out of 5 were in movies with 0 other noms. Last year’s Actor lineup had the Director winner, the #3 in noms, a Supporting Actress runner-up, and a Supporting Actress undeserving winner.

    For this century, Metacritic track records in the decade leading up to 2nd Lead Actress nominations (i.e. for likely nominee Davis, December 2006-November 2016):
    Cate Blanchett: 90s LOTR; 70s Aviator, Little Fish, Ripley, Elizabeth, Notes on a Scandal; 60s Coffee and Cigarettes, Life Aquatic, Babel, Heaven, Gift, Ideal Husband, Oscar and Lucinda. 21
    Julianne Moore: 80s Fugitive, Boogie Nights; 70s Safe, Short Cuts, Magnolia, Cookie’s Fortune; 60s End of the Affair, Map of the World, Ideal Husband, Big Lebowski. Vanya on 42nd Street is unlisted but has a 78 avg on RT. 20
    Laura Linney: 90s Truman Show; 80s Squid and Whale, Mystic River, You Can Count on Me; 70s Breach, House of Mirth, Kinsey; 60s Jindabyne. 20
    Marion Cotillard: 80s Midnight in Paris; 70s Rust and Bone, Immigrant, Innocence, Public Enemies, Inception, Contagion, Dark Knight Rises; 60s La Vie. 18
    Kate Winslet: 80s Sense and Sensibility; 70s Titanic, Quills, Iris; 60s Jude, Enigma. Heavenly Creatures unlisted but its RT avg is 82; Hamlet’s is 81. 17
    Michelle Williams: 80s Meek’s Cutoff, Blue Valentine, Brokeback Mountain, Wendy and Lucy, Station Agent; 60s Shutter Island, Synecdoche, Land of Plenty, Me Without You. 14
    Naomi Watts: 80s King Kong, Eastern Promises; 70s 21 Grams; 60s Fair Game, We Don’t Live, Assassination of Nixon, Painted Veil, Mother and Child 13
    Helen Mirren: 90s Queen, Gosford Park; 70s Last Orders; 60s State of Play. 11
    Viola Davis: 70s Get on Up, Prisoners; 60s The Help, Doubt, Eleanor Rigby, It’s Kind of a Funny Story, State of Play, Disturbia. 10
    Judi Dench: 80s Shakespeare in Love; 70s Mrs Brown; 60s GoldenEye, Chocolat. Hamlet’s not listed, but it has an 81 avg on RT. 10
    Nicole Kidman: 80s To Die For; 70s Others; 60s Moulin, Eyes Wide Shut, Portrait of a Lady. 8
    Annette Bening: 80s American Beauty; 60s Open Range, American President. Richard III is unlisted, but its average is 82 on RT. 8
    Renee Zellweger: 70s Jerry Maguire; 60s Bridget Jones, Nurse Betty, One True Thing, White Oleander. Whole Wide World unlisted, but has a 70 avg on RT. 8
    JLaw: 90s Winter’s Bone; 70s Like Crazy; 60s First Class, Hunger Games. 8
    Charlize Theron: 70s Monster, That Thing You Do, Cider House Rules; 60s Italian Job. 7
    Hilary Swank: 80s Boys Don’t Cry, 70s Insomnia, 60s Gift. 6
    Reese Witherspoon: 70s Mud, Walk the Line; 60s The Good Lie. 5
    Julia Roberts: 60s Notting Hill. Everyone Says I Love You is unlisted but its RT average is 72. 3
    Sandra Bullock: 60s Crash, Infamous. 2
    Natalie Portman: 70s Black Swan. 2

    So Portman has the very worst 21stc track record for the decade leading up to a 2nd lead nom and she’s somehow supposed to win lead twice for the sole exceptions to her thundering streak of mediocrity?
    And the 3 people right above her are all obvious mega box office queens esp in comedy which would explain why Hollywood would love them. Natalie is…not, with the biggest films in her lifetime being thankless supporting love interest roles.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201921803

    So Portman has the very worst 21stc track record for the decade leading up to a 2nd lead nom and she’s somehow supposed to win lead twice for the sole exceptions to her thundering streak of mediocrity?
    And the 3 people right above her are all obvious mega box office queens esp in comedy which would explain why Hollywood would love them. Natalie is…not, with the biggest films in her lifetime being thankless supporting love interest roles.

    Are we back at this again? Daniel Day-Lewis had one movie between his second and third Oscars, “Nine”, which has a Metascore of 49.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201921823

    Being selective and having few movies isn’t the same as having a ton of crappy films.

    Career-wise, DDL leads 5 80+s while Portman’s been in zero 80+s.

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    Rowan
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    #1201921825

    So Portman has the very worst 21stc track record for the decade leading up to a 2nd lead nom and she’s somehow supposed to win lead twice for the sole exceptions to her thundering streak of mediocrity?

    This would be very damning information if that were at all how the Oscars worked.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201921830

    I didn’t say having a resume with tons of crap prevents an Oscar. I mean, Matthew McC was like that before he got his act together.

    I’m merely saying in principle one *ought* not have two Oscars for rare exceptions among a pile of garbage.

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    AnneBoleyn
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    #1201921834

    Just going by reviews, I’d say the best actor field looks something like so far:

    Casey Affleck
    Chris Pine
    Ryan Gosling
    Joel Edgerton
    Tom Hanks

    Oscar bait-wise it’s more like:

    Casey Affleck
    Tom Hanks
    Ryan Gosling
    Joel Edgerton
    Jake Gyllenhaal? (I’m assuming Patel is going supporting.)

    And then there are the unseen performances: Garfield (Silence), Keaton, McC, Washington, Alwyn…

    Seems reasonable:

    Affleck
    Hanks
    Washington
    Gosling
    No Idea

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