-
-
The Best Actor race is certainly very interesting and unpredictable this year. It’s been going back and forth, first with Austin Butler winning the Golden Globe, then Brendan Fraser winning the Critics Choice, and now Austin Butler winning the BAFTA. It’s reminding me a lot of the Best Supporting Actress Race in 2013 between Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years A Slave and Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle. That race went back and forth, too: Lawrence, like Butler, won both the Golden Globe and BAFTA. Nyong’o started out with winning the Critics Choice before winning the SAG and the Oscar. Right now I think Brendan Fraser will end up winning the SAG and Oscar just like Lupita Nyong’o did, but what do you all think?
ReplyI have a lot more respect for both JL and Nyong’o work now than I did then. I thought Lawrence was miscast and that Nyong’o was terrible. Now, I think they’re both terrific.
I’m biased with the men. I don’t feel The Whale was an awful movie. Quite the contrary. Fraser, as well as the rest of the cast, are stellar. It’s obvious which film had more money to play with.
Elvis didn’t impress me as a film. It’s nice and glitzy Ala Baz, but that’s it.
I hope Fraser wins SAG. And I hope he goes on to win Oscar. His perf was shattering.ReplyCopy URLThe Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteNyong’o was in the Best Picture winner, The Whale couldn’t even make it in with 10 slots. Then there’s also JLaw winning just the year before, an obstacle Butler obviously doesn’t have to face so this comparison doesn’t really work.
ReplyCopy URLGrammys Album of the Year: Harry's House ✨
2023: Year of the JerEMMYs
A big reason Lawrence lost this is because she won the year prior in lead, in addition to Nyong’o being in the eventual BP winner. Butler won’t have these problems because he’d be a first time winner, his film is undeniably stronger, and Fraser’s film is BP-snubbed (passed over by a film with only an Adapted nom). Plus he beat out Colin at BAFTA whose film had two acting wins (including a huge upset). Everything points to Butler being in the stronger position even if he lost SAG to Fraser.
ReplyCopy URLA big reason Lawrence lost this is because she won the year prior in lead, in addition to Nyong’o being in the eventual BP winner. Butler won’t have these problems because he’d be a first time winner, his film is strong, and Fraser’s film is BP-snubbed (passed over by a film with only an Adapted nom). Plus he beat out Colin at BAFTA whose film had two acting wins (including a huge upset). Everything points to Butler being in the stronger position even if he lost SAG to Fraser.
It’s the same scenario regarding a possible SAG win for Yeoh. It’s not going to help her win, although her film is performing well above Whale.
Would just love to see them both win SAG.ReplyCopy URLThe Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteI didn’t care for either of them, so I couldn’t care less about who wins between them. With that said, Fraser is in a far weaker position than both girls were. One was in the BP winner and won SAG and JLaw won GG and BAFTA and her movie was the most nominated of the year. Fraser can’t reale to either. Also, like Babygirl and Reginaisking said, JLaw won the previous year in Lead, which hurt her massively, since many for sure didn’t feel the need to vote for her a second year in a row.
I think a better comparison would be Penn vs Rourke. Rourke also had the coming back narrative and won two precursors, but was held by back by a weak movie, just like Fraser. He also end up losing to the bigger transformation in the stronger movie.
ReplyCopy URLIt’s the same scenario regarding a possible SAG win for Yeoh. It’s not going to help her win, although her film is performing well above Whale.
Would just love to see them both win SAG.Now Yeoh taking SAG and then Oscar would be the more appropriate comparison for JLaw x Lupita. Yeoh’s film is likely to take BP at this point and could win over a previous winner (and current GG x BAFTA winner) if she takes SAG. I think that’s a thread that should’ve been made rather than this Butler vs. Fraser one.
ReplyCopy URLI don’t think this is an apt comparison. JLaw had just won the year prior and American Hustle faltered pretty hard, going 0/10 on Oscar night. Lupita had the more sympathetic role and SAG winners in a split race are more victorious in the Supporting categories. Brendan is in a weak film while Austin is playing a musical icon in a loved film. After seeing The Whale, I see why Brendan Fraser wasn’t a stable frontrunner and that’s cause the performance is mostly physical. It’s emotional and baity on the surface, but he doesn’t have as big of wallop of a performance as I was led to believe.
The closest we can come to is Sean Penn who won Critics Choice and SAG against, coincidentally, Mickey Rourke who won Globe and BAFTA for an Aronofsky movie. What helped Sean Penn is exactly what’s helping Austin Butler and even then, Sean Penn swept the trifecta so he had highbrow support as well unlike an under-respected Mickey Rourke
ReplyCopy URLNot even close as others already explained. Lawrence was a recent winner. Both Fraser and Butler are first-timers. Both Lawrence and Nyong’o were in Picture nominees which usually doesn’t affect Supporting Actress category but it doesn’t hurt. Fraser’s movie missed and correlation between Actor win and Picture nom has become almost a rule. Fraser would have to break that stat to win. Remember, CODA broke many stats but it didn’t break the Script + Acting stat which is alpha and omega of Picture wins.
butler vs fraser is more like redmayne vs keaton
Not really. Redmayne played a historical figure + disability which is the bait of baits while Keaton played an original character lampooning superhero genre. OTOH, Butler plays a historical figure while Fraser plays disability. So that’s 2 of the baitiest Oscar cliches going against each other. And we know that SAG sure loves their fatsuits (Davis) and chipmunks (Chastain) so I give slight advantage to Fraser with SAG. I expect Butler to win AMPAS unless they Slap the Stud in the 11th hour.
ReplyCopy URLUnfortunately, given that CC is just a try-hard predictor for the Oscars and increasingly so, even since 2013, I think Fraser’s win there will be reflective that he had the narrative momentum at the time (critics awards largely going to Farrell and not much else to judge by then). SAG loves “transformation,” but they LOVE mimicry biopics, and Butler’s comes with a heavy side of “transformation” so…I’ve resigned he’s winning there. And taking the Oscar. I really don’t like it, but …yeah.
Side note I think “slap the stud” is used way too liberally these days. It’s used for like…ANY thin white guy under 40 lmao. But then it kind of originated with DiCaprio so the credibility was very limited to begin with.
ReplyCopy URL
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
