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Frontrunner Snubs?

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    markwahlbird
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    Are there any instances you can think of where a movie/performance was the frontrunner to win in a particular category in the leadup to nomination morning, but ended up getting left off entirely? I wasn’t around to follow the season in these years, but I’ve heard that this was the case for things like Dreamgirls in Best Picture, Michael Douglas for Wonder Boys in Best Actor, and Ron Howard for Apollo 13 in Best Director. Are there any other times like this you can think of?

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    diego
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    #1203635632

    Ben Affleck (as director) for Argo, he won pretty much everywhere else.

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    Seven
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    Not the Oscars but Regina King at SAG and BAFTAs. And she won pretty much everything else too

    Not a frontrunner but it looks like a lot of people really wanted Bradley Cooper to happen (looking at the odds) until ASIB started bombing at the precursors and guilds. This is so baffling to me

    Also Steven Spielberg for the Color Purple. He even won DGA

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    Nameizmann
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    Inception in editing is the first I can think of.

    There are also a lot in the FLF / documentary / score / song categories, such as First Man (score) or Apollo 11 / Won’t you Be My Neighbor (documentary).

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    Hoster1
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    Documentary branch regularly does this lol. I.e. Jane and Won’t You Be My Neighbor?.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203635829

    Steven Spielberg for The Color Purple

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    See You Again in Original Song

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203635836

    Ridley Scott for The Martian

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203635838

    I was too young to be properly interested in the Oscars at the time, but when 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days missed the pre-nomination shortlist for the Foreign Language Film category it prompted a change in the voting procedure. It’s the reason why we have three ‘saves’ from the executive committee on the shortlist.

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    Dan Jo
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    Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road

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    Jacob Boe
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    Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road

    Actually, she couldn’t have been nominated for this film because she had been nominated for The Reader instead.

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    Human Bartender
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    Steven Spielberg for The Color Purple

    The people who wrote him off as just a blockbuster director must’ve been really jealous when he showed he can do Oscar bait too.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Stank83
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    Jim Carrey in The Truman Show

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    lanadelol
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    Oprah in The Butler

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    Riley Chow
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    Actually, she couldn’t have been nominated for this film because she had been nominated for The Reader instead.

    It was assumed that she would be in supporting for The Reader because that is where she was campaigned.  The surprise of her nomination was a twofer—that they had promoted her to lead and that she got more votes for it than for Revolutionary Road even with the split votes to supporting. She had already won Globes for both roles at that point.

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