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December 8, 2019 at 12:02 pm #1203224350
Final predictions for the Golden Globes nominations
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a time in Hollywood
Dolemite is my Name
Robert De Niro
Roman Griffin Davis
Ana De Armas
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Into The Unknown
I’m Gonna Love Me Again
Toy Story 4
How to Train Your Dragon 3
I Lost My Body
Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)December 8, 2019 at 11:42 pm #1203225630
Erivo or Nyong’o? Erivo or Nyong’o? Erivo or Nyong’o? I don’t know what to do. The Globes hate horror movies, but they also owe Lupita a win, which could translate into a second nom (if you know what I mean). I am actively rooting against Erivo after the comments she made. She didn’t even deserve to play this iconic woman.
Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!December 9, 2019 at 12:01 am #1203225636
I’ve been predicting Lupita over Erivo for awhile now and I’m sticking to it. The only thing Erivo seems to have going for her is her role. Meanwhile, Lupita’s got genuine passion going for her, and she’s also a much bigger and more respected name.
Let’s Go BucksDecember 9, 2019 at 12:06 am #1203225638This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 9, 2019 at 12:18 am #1203225654
These two, and this movie in general, better get their due today.
Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!December 9, 2019 at 12:22 am #1203225661This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 9, 2019 at 12:27 am #1203225669
Also, this means almost nothing but for the hell of it, HFPA members including Jenelle Riley on Twitter are saying that the only unpredictable category will be Best Actor where there’s the possibility of a major snub. This is leading me to conjecture (once again) that Ronan might be safe as I would consider her an egregious snub if Little Women is doing as well with the HFPA as has been said.
I wouldn’t even know what to do with this piece of information. We all know Driver and Phoenix ain’t getting snubbed, but honestly, anyone else being snubbed wouldn’t shock me. Maybe De Niro gets left out? I currently have Phoenix, Driver, Banderas, De Niro and Sandler.
Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!December 9, 2019 at 12:36 am #1203225675This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 9, 2019 at 2:43 am #1203225700
Some statistics regarding the last five years of the comedy / musical categories with GD odds.
* Performer wise, GD odds have only matched 5/5 once, actress 2018.
* Picture has also only matched 5/5 once, 2018.
* Twice did the performance #1 leader not win (Blunt 14, Mortensen 19).
* 59% of the time, has a 100/1 odds performer been nominated .
* The #6 placement has been replaced #5 choice 4 times – McCarthy/Streep (15), Bale/De Niro (15), Steinfeld/Field (16) & Reilly/Robinson (18).
* Of the top 13 predicted performance nominees that were eventual snubees, only nominee from a film will only 2 (Hader, & Nanjiani) were also predicted for a top 5 film.
* The top two predicted nominees were all in eventual C/M picture nominees, with two exceptions (Tomlin & Farrell).
* The top three leading nominees have been in C/M Picture nominees three times (Actor 14, Actress 16, Actress 18).
* Only once has both top 5 performance picture contender (Nanjiani / Big Sick)
* The #1 Picture at the time of nomination has only won 2/5 (40%).
* A top 5 Actor/Actress duo has only had one half missed once (Hader out / Schumer in).
* The top two picture contenders at the time of nomination have never missed.
2. Into the Woods
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Inherent Vice (x)
5. St. Vincent
1. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
2. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
3. Angelina Jolie – Maleficent (x)
4. Kiera Knightly – Begin Again (x)
5. Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars
6. Helen Mirren – The Hundred Foot Journey
11. Quvenzhané Wallis – Annie
1. Michael Keaton – Birdman
2. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Bill Murray – St. Vincent
4. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
5. Chris Rock – Top Five (x)
13. Christophe Waltz – Big Eyes
1. The Martian
3. The Big Short
5. Grandma (x)
1. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
2. Lily Tomlin – Grandma
3. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
4. Maggie Smith – Lady in the Van
5. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash (x)
6. Melissa McCarthy – Spy
1. Matt Damon – The Martian
2. Steve Carell – The Big Short
3. Bill Hader – Trainwreck (x)
4. Bradley Cooper – Burnt (x)
5. Robert de Niro – The Intern (x)
6. Christian Bale – The Big Short
7. Al Pacino – Danny Collins
9. Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear
1. La La Land
2. 20th Century Woman
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. The Lobster (x)
5. Sing Street
1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Annette Bening – 20th Century Woman
3. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship (x)
5. Sally Field – Hello My Name Is Doris (x)
6. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
14. Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply
1. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
2. Colin Farrell – The Lobster
3. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply (x)
11. Jonah Hill – War Dogs
1. Get Out
2. Lady Bird
3. The Big Sick (x)
4. I, Tonya
5. The Disaster Artist
6. The Greatest Showman
1. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
2. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
3. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
4. Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul
5. Emma Watson – Beauty and the Beast (x)
10. Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker
1. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
2. Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick (x)
3. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
4. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
5. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
9. Ansel Elgort – Baby Driver
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Crazy Rich Asians
1. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
2. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
3. Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians
4. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
5. Charlize Theron – Tully
1. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
2. Christian Bale – Vice
3. Robert Redford – The Old Man & The Gun
4. Lin-Manuel Miranda – Marry Poppins Returns
5. Nick Robinson – Love, Simon (x)
6. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie
Based on the above mentioned statistics along with the following will likely based on stats happen
* The top five Booksmart, Dolomite, Hollywood, JoJo Rabbit & Rocketman are likely to be C/M nominated.
* Murphy & Awkwafina will win their respective categories.
* Thompson & Griffin Davis are the likeliest to be snubbed, in favour of either Dever / Jolie and LeBeouf / Cranston.
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