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The Gothams really are boiling down to a Netflix vs Netflix contest.
Passing and The Lost Daughter are going head to head in five categories (pic, dir, scr and both acting races).
Which film has the stronger odds of running the table? My vote is Passing.
If theres a split between the two films’ categories, I predict TLD will take director, and Passing
the rest.ReplyCopy URLFYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichBest Film: Passing (Spoiler: The Lost Daughter) Best Documentary: Flee (Spoiler: Summer of Soul) Best International Feature: The Worst Person in the World (Spoiler: Titane) Best Breakthrough Director: Rebecca Hall for Passing (Spoiler: Edson Oda gor Nine Days) Best Screenplay: Red Rocket (Spoiler: Passing) Best Lead Performance: Joaquim Phoenix for C’mon c’mon (Spoiler: Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter) Best Supporting Performance: Ruth Negga for Passing (Spoiler: Troy Kotsur, CODA) Breakthrough Performance: Emilia Jones for CODA (Spoiler: Rachel Sennott for Shiva Baby)
I was going to write out my own picks but you pretty much hit all of mine. The only differences I have are Titane winning International Feature (I don’t get the passion for that film but that’s a me thing) and I am somewhat hope-dicting Thompson winning lead performance. The easier answer is Colman, but I think it’s her or Thompson.
ReplyCopy URLThe only time I’ve ever wanted a tie lol. (Passing & The Lost Daughter for Best Film).
I can see Tessa winning this. It’s exactly the kind of wrench Gothams often throw — when people will be expecting Colman, Rex or Phoenix, and Negga in Supporting. In Supporting, I think Birney or Kotsur might actually have pretty good shots? But their films aren’t nominated so what if… Buckley? I mean she IS excellent, and again would be a total Gothams-style wrench.
Screenplay feeeeels like Gyllenhaal’s to lose but…
Def see Shiva Baby and/or Red Rocket winning someplace though… I wanna say Seligman for Directorrrrr?
ReplyCopy URLFYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
AftersunPredictions
Feature: The Lost Daughter
Documentary: Summer of Soul
International Feature: The Worst Person in the World
Breakthrough Director: Shatara Michelle Ford (Test Pattern)Screenplay: The Lost Daughter
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Lead: Tessa Thompson (Passing)
Supporting: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Breakthrough: Suzanna Son (Red Rocket)Prediction- pundits will overreact to the winners here and catapult them up the Oscar predictions table
Well it would be something and they probably should after underrating all of them. Colman’s the only one cracking Top 5, it’s like people forgot that critical acclaim actually matters lol
But that’s almost too optimistic. The “Gothams don’t matter” pitchforks have been out from the get-go so.
ReplyCopy URLFYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
AftersunPrediction- pundits will overreact to the winners here and catapult them up the Oscar predictions table
Well, I’d rather that than everyone waving them aside. The films and performances nominated are all wonderful and have been criminally overlooked so far this season when they deserve recognition. So I’d have no problem seeing the winners be overestimated. Good.
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