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  • DaKardii
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    Personally, I’m not surprised by any of Green Book‘s wins. In fact, I put all three of them in my predictions in the end.

    Ali was a lock, end of story.

    As for the Picture and Original Screenplay wins, the fact that even after the Farrelly and Vallelonga scandals Green Book (1) was still nominated at the Oscars in those categories; and (2) still won Best Picture at PGA, indicates that the film was so popular with older voters that no scandal would completely stop its momentum.

    Personally, I believe Roma could’ve beaten Green Book for Best Picture, and The Favourite could’ve beaten Green Book for Best Original Screenplay. However, in my opinion both films had factors against them in those categories in addition to Green Book‘s popularity with older voters. For Roma, I believe what sealed its fate was the reluctance of some voters to vote for a foreign language film. For The Favourite, I believe what sealed its fate was the reluctance of some voters to vote for a screenplay that didn’t conform with the WGA’s Minimum Basic Agreement standards, plus the splitting of votes with Roma and Vice, who in my opinion were serious competition for the runner up spot.

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    moviefan617
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    Personally, I’m not surprised by any of Green Book‘s wins. In fact, I put all three of them in my predictions in the end.

    Ali was a lock, end of story.

    As for the Picture and Original Screenplay wins, the fact that even after the Farrelly and Vallelonga scandals Green Book (1) was still nominated at the Oscars in those categories; and (2) still won Best Picture at PGA, indicates that the film was so popular with older voters that no scandal would completely stop its momentum.

    Personally, I believe Roma could’ve beaten Green Book for Best Picture, and The Favourite could’ve beaten Green Book for Best Original Screenplay. However, in my opinion both films had factors against them in those categories in addition to Green Book‘s popularity with older voters. For Roma, I believe what sealed its fate was the reluctance of some voters to vote for a foreign language film. For The Favourite, I believe what sealed its fate was the reluctance of some voters to vote for a screenplay that didn’t conform with the WGA’s Minimum Basic Agreement standards, plus the splitting of votes with Roma and Vice, who in my opinion were serious competition for the runner up spot.

    That’s…quite the theory.

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    DaKardii
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    That’s…quite the theory.

    The Favourite was ineligible for WGA consideration precisely because of its nonconformity to MBA standards. For this reason, I can picture guild hacks going around trying to convince voters to not vote for The Favourite. Odds are if that happened, the voters who defected likely split their votes between Roma and Vice, and that vote splitting destroyed The Favourite‘s chances of coming out on top over Green Book.

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    moviefan617
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    The Favourite was ineligible for WGA consideration precisely because of its nonconformity to MBA standards. For this reason, I can picture guild hacks going around trying to convince voters to not vote for The Favourite. Odds are if that happened, the voters who defected likely split their votes between Roma and Vice, and that vote splitting destroyed The Favourite‘s chances of coming out on top over Green Book.

    I’m just not seeing the connection between people wanting to shift their vote from “The Favourite” to “Roma” or “Vice.” What’s the connection there?

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    Eddy Q
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    WGA-ineligibility has neither helped nor hindered screenplays at the Oscars in the past, why would it this time?

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    smurty11
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    Spike Lee trolling the BP win is my new religion.

    GB didn’t age well as a BP winneras soon as Julia Roberts opened the envelope

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