February 18, 2019 at 8:40 pm #1202781040
I’m really starting to feel a swell for FIRST REFORMED but compared to the other nominees I don’t know what kind of chance it has. The only reason is that Paul Schrader is a legend and WGA gave us that significant upset.
Does anyone know whether there is precedent for this or am I crazy to make that prediction?February 18, 2019 at 8:59 pm #1202781074
1940 – The Great McGinty
1943 – Princess O’Rourke
1945 – Marie-Louise (Need to confirm)
1946 – The Seventh Veil-
1947 – The Bachelor and the Bobby Soxer
1956 – The Red Balloon
1957 – Designing Woman
If Ethan Hawke had gotten a nom, it could have pulled an Eternal Sunshine. It doesn’t look good though as is.February 18, 2019 at 10:17 pm #1202781128
I could see a narrative where First Reformed wins. It won Critics Choice, and since 2010, none of the Critics Choice Original Screenplay winners lost at the Oscars. Of course, this is a special case in of itself, since it is the only nomination for First Reformed. This isn’t even to mention that Paul Schrader IS a quiet overdue and that WGA DID screw everyone’s predictions, like you said.
Right now I am predicting Green Book, but I would not be surprised if First Reformed somehow wins.
Oscars 2020: I stan Joaquin Phoenix, Willem Dafoe, Alan Silvestri, and Dean Deblois.
Emmys 2020: I stan Logan Lerman, Olivia Colman, and David Harbour.
Tom Hanks and Amy Adams stan in general.February 18, 2019 at 10:55 pm #1202781151
Yes, Trevor is right. Marie-Louise (1944) won for Original Screenplay for its only nomination that year. Also, The Red Balloon (1956) was not nominated in Live Short Action. The category was divided into two for one-reel and two-reel shorts. At 35 minutes, I think the The Red Balloon was too long to qualify for either, and too short to qualify for Feature Length, which is 40 minutes. I think the statement:
Only short film to ever be nominated for something outside the short categories!
does not preclude it from not being nominated for the Short Category itself.February 19, 2019 at 12:00 am #1202781208
I can’t see First Reformed winning here, no matter how much I’d like to see Schrader accept an Oscar.
The thing is the award is voted by the Academy at large. So actors – the same actors who snubbed Ethan Hawke’s brilliant performance – will be voting for this award.
Chances are they’ll throw The Favourite a bone in this category, making it a consolation prize.
Green Book has a shot but I really hope it does not win. If it fails to win, this will mark the first time since the 1950s that the Globe winners for screenplay fail to win the Oscar four years in a row.February 21, 2019 at 5:08 am #1202783662
Something is telling me that First Reformed is possibly going to win original screenplay since they won the Critics Choice.February 21, 2019 at 6:02 am #1202783692
I could see First Reformed winning if it had huge popular support behind it and a passionate public love. To be honest, if Eighth Grade had been nominated here, I think it would’ve had a real shot because of the combination of critical and popular praise that it got. However, take a random Academy voter off the street, and they probably haven’t seen First Reformed, or if they have seen it, they probably don’t have the same passion for it like the majority public does for Eighth Grade.
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