February 24, 2019 at 9:22 pm #1202792400
I had a feeling that Regina would win all day but I stuck with Weisz due to Beale Street just not doing that well this season. But how was she able to prevail without those BAFTA/SAG snubs? I’ll try to break it down:
1. She was beloved in the industry: Here’s where I’m eating my hat the most- clearly Regina had a lot of good will among Oscar voters. My question is was it not with the SAG voters that also vote for the Oscars? BAFTA has snubbed surprising contenders before but SAG is just a head scratcher.
2. Weisz’s performance didn’t have enough heat behind it: I knew this would be the big thing that would hold her back and I was right. She was excellent in the film but there wasn’t enough buzz about her work. It really felt like Colman was getting the best in show reviews and Weisz and Stone were both getting getting a lot of respectful notices but no passionate ones. I still think Weisz could have won with Stone still in the race but I do think vote splitting hurt her a little bit. Without Stone, Weisz could have done better.
3. The competition had too many things going against them: This is almost always the reason why an upset contender or a vulnerable frontrunner wins(or honestly if any contender wins) and this clearly helped King. There was no incentive to honor Weisz, Stone had just won, Amy’s performance had no buzz and the film was too divisive, and Marina’s nod was her reward as it is clear that Roma was not strong enough of a contender to sweep her up.
4. The Academy’s New Diverse Membership: Politically correct or not this helped King triumph.
5. Oscar voters loved her performance: Obviously the secret ballots were an indicator here.
What do you think?February 24, 2019 at 9:25 pm #1202792412
Like we said from the beginning.
PASSION.February 24, 2019 at 9:33 pm #1202792450
Ever since BAFTA, I had always maintained that Regina and Rachel were going to be very close, and I don’t think Regina won by a landslide. I wouldn’t have been surprised if either had won.
In a weird way, I think that the strength of the film hurt Weisz. Colman and Stone and so many other aspects of the film had such outstanding reviews that I can’t help but feel that Weisz would be nominated with or without passion behind her performance, while Regina’s nomination in itself without precursor support was a testament to how much people responded to her performance. I think that being a previous Oscar winner hurt Weisz the most, though.
FYC: Mary Kay Place in DianeFebruary 24, 2019 at 9:33 pm #1202792454
I predicted Weisz (and Weisz gave the best performance in the category) but King has won basically every single award she was nominated for which you can’t argue against. If Stone went lead Colman would have been put in supporting so I don’t think there ever was an optimal path for Weisz to win.
For Your Consideration:
Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)February 24, 2019 at 9:34 pm #1202792459
Oh, please. The Oscar is not pure math; sometimes, there will be shocks.
I’m glad Regina won, she worked hard for it.
If anything can be said about these Oscars, is that the precursors are not always right.February 24, 2019 at 9:36 pm #1202792469
I think that was just one other reason to not award her. Previous Oscar winners can win again but only if the performance is beloved. Too bad Weisz didn’t have that.February 24, 2019 at 9:38 pm #1202792478
Unlike Best Actress, the right person won!February 24, 2019 at 9:39 pm #1202792484
There was something with Annapurna not promoting the movies well before SAG and BAFTA noms which I think did her in there. Since they didn’t send screeners and the movie didn’t come out until Christmas it was nearly doomed in those places…although Vice made it at SAG (but did underperform)….I really don’t knowFebruary 24, 2019 at 9:48 pm #1202792523
I guess maybe the thread should be titled “Why Did King Get Snubbed at SAG and BAFTA?”February 24, 2019 at 9:49 pm #1202792531
She has a lot of goodwill in the industry. I feel like SAG has become a lot more mainstream in recent years, so I expect it to become less and less important in the next few years. Bafta was always a long shot even for a nomination for her, as it has been for other black actors over the years. It also helped that none of her competitors were strong. Rachel winning bafta meant nothing other than there was no one else to go with there.
#FreeTheBannedFourFebruary 24, 2019 at 9:50 pm #1202792536
Regina King won every time she was nominated; for her it was a matter of getting nominated, then it was clear sailing. Her winning the award here on Gold Derby with Rachel Weisz in 3rd place and Daniel’s explanation as to why that happened convinced me she was definitely going to win the Oscar.February 24, 2019 at 9:52 pm #1202792546
SAG because only a small percentage of the SAG-AFTRA membership chooses nominees. The Actor’s Branch were not fully represented by SAG-AFTRA’s nominating pool. Once King got in, I knew it’d be a different dynamic and King had a chance. Regarding BAFTA…BAFTA has selectivity when it comes to nominating and awarding actors of color…namely black actors.
I think if only ONE of Weisz/Stone were nominated then the foreign voters who voted for Colman and voted for Malek because Brits and Euros love Brit band Queen (like everyone else) would have voted for that one person. However, because they split votes, King got enough home support and passion to carry her over to a win. They were not feeling Amy Adams as evidenced by all of her previous losses and Marina de Tavira’s nomination was a surprise but made no dent in the category.February 24, 2019 at 9:54 pm #1202792555
King was by far the critics favorite the whole season and had residual love from her THREE Emmys wins these last five years.
The SAG/BAFTA snubs were flukes that I cannot explain, but SAG went to someone not nominated for an Oscar and BAFTA went to someone who lost SAG to someone who was not nominated.
C’mon, it was obvious. The SAG/BAFTA thing probably had more to do with the industry not wanting a complete sweep everywhere. Before that, it was looking like a clear path for King compared to Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor, where the (critic) awards were all over the place.February 24, 2019 at 9:56 pm #1202792561
SAG got both Actress categories wrong this year! Just so happy that Regina King won! (:
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