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How does one predict best song ??

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  • Thomas Eagan
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    What is the criteria for someone to actually predict Best Song. Where are the precursors? What is the percentage of this prediction category? I don’t see the theme song from the Titanic on this year’s list !!!

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    Thomas Eagan
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    Looks like no one has an answer to this question. Simply a guess.

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    Peaceful Resolution
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    My bias says they’ll go for Mary J Blige since she’s a famous multi-platinum selling recording artist who’s also a double nominee for acting.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    Yep predicting a winner in this category is about bias and preference. Any of these songs could win.

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    TheRedBoy
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    These days you just pick the obvious answer (Frozen, Adele, Glory, La La Land) and you end up being right. Sam Smith beating Lady Gaga is the only upset in this category in several years.

    This year’s lineup is a bit more unpredictable than other recent ones, though. It’s probably a “This Is Me” vs “Remember Me” race, but I guess there would be precedent for any of the others winning. Blige is a respected music veteran (with an acting nom!), Stevens wrote the sort of folky style song they sometimes go for, and they could always decide to finally award Diane Warren.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    Like I said in my first post. ‘No Titanic in this group’.

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    Award Chaos
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    Like I said in my first post. ‘No Titanic in this group’.

    Was there a new Titanic movie this year I don’t know about? Or you mean like a juggernaut song that is the obvious winner?

    Anyways, this year I don’t know how, but I predicted 5/5 in this category. To find the frontrunner is rather difficult, I wouldn’t rely on “narrative”. The Academy is ruthless, and they won’t give an Oscar to someone (behind the screen) because this person is overdue. It took Kevin O’Connell 20 nominations to finally win. Roger Deakins has 14 with no Oscars. So Diane Warren has 9 nominations now without a win, it’s time to give it to her? No when Coco and Greatest Showman are in the run. But of course, if the Academy decides this will be the year of the woman -like last year was the year of POC- we can expect Blige or Warren to prevail. Even Rachel Morrison could win under that narrative.

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    Pulp
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    Mary J. Blige and Diane Warren aren’t winning because they’re women. That narrative isn’t going to help anyone get a win.

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    JB
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    “This is Me” is easily and deservedly winning. The song is becoming a phenomena (over 17 million streams on youtube and growing daily, plus endless covers posted on all social media). It keeps rising on the Hot 100 (none of the other songs have come close to charting) and the soundtrack is a giant smash. The film also continues to defy the odds and looks likely to hit $150 million at domestic box office …. Most importantly, the song truly captures the heart of the film and is the most rousing moment of The Greatest Showman.

    I think it’s only competition is “Remember Me” which is incredibly integral to Coco… but hasn’t struck the same chord.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    Mystery of Love, Remember Me and This is me have all done tremendously well when it comes to views on YouTube. Truthfully the two best songs are This is Me and Mystery of Love. For sure if it come down to box office This is me wins.

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    Paul Hardister
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    Popularity is definitely a factor. However, YouTube success doesn’t always guarantee a win. “Everything is Awesome!!!” has 55 million views to Glory’s 19 million. “When I See You Again” from Furious 7 has 3.3 billion views and they didn’t even nominate it.

    Songs that I usually go with fall into multiple (not just one of these) categories:
    * something from Disney (not always but often)
    * something from a big box office hit (Titanic, Skyfall, Spectre, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, etc.) because it is more likely the voter will either remember the song or just pick it because they liked the movie
    * something from a movie about music (La La Land, Once, Crazy Heart, Hustle & Flow, 8 Mile)
    * prior winner (Globe or Critics Choice)
    * something from a film that is nominated in other categories especially if it is a Best Picture contender (La La Land, Slumdog, Inconvenient Truth – not up for Picture but was the Doc frontrunner) because if they like a movie enough they will likely vote for it in more than one category

    Coco checks all these boxes I look for so I’m going with that. I know Paskek & Paul won last year but Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez are former winners too for Frozen.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    I think This is Me ended up becoming a “thing” and Remember Me’s chances slowly went away as that happened and then Greatest Showman became an unexpected (and ilogical…it’s so bad) hit to help it out here.

    It’s far more popular than the other four and it still has people behind it that they clearly love, since they just won last year.

    But don’t be surprised if Remember Me wins since it also has a pretty well known team behind it, Pixar, Disney and it’s so so good. It has its perfect moment during the film, but then so does This is Me, so…

    I don’t think Mary wins this just because she’s a legend, a woman or an acting nominee this year too. Diane Warren has two of those things too and she’s basically overdue at this point. But I doubt people have actually listened to either song.

    And as much as I love Sufjan Stevens, the nomination is his reward. His film underperformed. And he has HUGE competition. And it might be another song nobody has really listened to. No way he wins.

    This is Me is just too big to ignore here.

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    Cinephile
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    no doubt mystery of love is the best made song but I’m putting my money on this is me.The song is extremely popular and has lyrics that academy would love to reward and advertise as their winner particularly in this political climate.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    I wonder how often The guild of music supervisors have been correct. I agree with their selection last night when they chose Mystery of Love Best Song in a film. It is the most beautiful song in the group of nominees. The nominees last night were the same as the Oscar nominees. I doubt Academy voters will actually make a decision to actually pick the best song but go with a popular choice.

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    Pulp
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    Is This is Me really as popular as people on this thread are trying to make it out to be? More people have seen Coco than The Greatest Showman, and we know the highest charting song doesn’t always win. Just last year we had a number 1 song lose. I know Remember Me isn’t as strong as City of Stars, but This Is Me isn’t as strong as Can’t Stop the Feeling either.

    Also, could the fact that Remember Me has multiple different versions in the movie help or hurt it? Perhaps people won’t vote for it because they don’t know which version they’re voting for? Or they could just appreciate the different versions and that would help it.

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