December 18, 2016 at 11:28 am #1201971641
I actually think the race is a two way race between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea; I know there is a great deal of passion for Moonlight on here but I am not convinced it will be shared universally among enough Academy voters. I think the preferential ballot in the BP race favors MBTS. It will get the most 1st, 2nd and 3rd place votes. That is how I think it could win, very similarly to Spotlight’s win last year. I actually would be quite happy if La La Land were to win and see a path to victory for it similar to MBTS’s… at the moment, I have La La Land winning 5 Oscars, MBTS winning 3, and Moonlight winning 2, but that is subject to change as the Guild nominations come out and I see the last few remaining films that have question marks on them over the next few weeks… (if I were an Academy voter I would likely put MBTS in 1st, La La Land in 2nd and Lion in 3rd – assuming all 3 get deserved nominations).December 18, 2016 at 11:30 am #1201971644
Lion in 3rd over Moonlight?December 18, 2016 at 11:44 am #1201971648
I am one of a handful people here on goldderby who didn’t much care for Moonlight and believes it is being way over-rated. While it has some well directed and well acted scenes here and there, I found it wildly uneven. I also didn’t care for certain aspects of its storytelling and direction. I know that others loved it; it will definitely get passion votes but I suspect that Academy voters who skew older will have other films that they care for more on the list. Time will tell… this is only speculation after all!December 18, 2016 at 1:07 pm #1201971662
Your post has a very original title!
My problem with Manchester as a true Best Picture contender is that the Academy hardly ever goes for downers. This one doesn’t even have the upside of relating to the world we live in. And I expected critics to embrace it much more in their awards than they did.
But it still has the SAG Ensemble nomination, unlike LLL. And for all the talk of LLL being a two-hander with “cameos around the leads”, those “cameos” (which are being campaigned for Supporting nods) still have more screentime than Michelle Williams! Amazing– the excuses!!December 18, 2016 at 1:28 pm #1201971665
Gus, it absolutely relates to the world we live in – loss and grief are major themes in every single conversation I have been having lately – particularly political discussion. I think it will get a ton of #2 and #3 preferential ballots; which is what I suspect happened last year that resulted in Spotlight winning and it only won one other Oscar!
Michelle Williams has much more screen time than the cameos in La La Land – are you sure you saw MBTS?
Downers? Ordinary People, Birdman, The Hurt Locker, 12 Years a Slave, No Country For Old Men, The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby, American Beauty… I found Manchester by the Sea to be UPLIFTING!
I am not saying it will win; only that it has a path to victory that is worth consideration. I still think La La Land will win and is a worthy victor! (but the race imo is between LLL and MBTS)December 18, 2016 at 1:29 pm #1201971666
Please use the capital H.December 18, 2016 at 1:46 pm #1201971673
Your post has a very original title! My problem with Manchester as a true Best Picture contender is that the Academy hardly ever goes for downers. This one doesn’t even have the upside of relating to the world we live in. And I expected critics to embrace it much more in their awards than they did. But it still has the SAG Ensemble nomination, unlike LLL. And for all the talk of LLL being a two-hander with “cameos around the leads”, those “cameos” (which are being campaigned for Supporting nods) still have more screentime than Michelle Williams! Amazing– the excuses!!
Studios campaign for thigs they know have no chance of happening all the time.(By campaign I mean put it in the FYC ads) Sometimes because of their agreements with agents, sometimes to use the campaigned name for promotion. Jonah Hill who has literally one scene in Hail Caesar is being campaigned for a supp. nod, even at the risk of splitting movie’s support in that category.December 18, 2016 at 3:09 pm #1201971687
Studios campaign for thigs they know have no chance of happening all the time.
Sure. I’m not saying they believe it will happen, but they do acknowledge a larger cast, which would have at least six credited actors had it gotten the Ensemble nod. I’m just saying that the excuse the movie is a “two-hander” might apply to, say, There Will Be Blood missing the SAG nod, but not this one.December 18, 2016 at 3:25 pm #1201971693
After having seen “La La Land” I totally see why it would not be up for SAG ensemble even though I still think it is the easy front-runner to win best picture at the Oscars. It is very much a two-hand piece, even more so than “There Will Be Blood” which you brought up, and even Rosemarie DeWitt, J.K. Simmons and John Legend in support only have a handful of lines each.
I do not know if Emma Stone will win best actress but the film is a technical marvel and I expect it to take best picture, director and then a number of technical awards (at the very least cinematography, art direction and score) and perhaps song. I do not think this is year where we have a best picture winner with just a few wins and a best picture rival that takes technical prizes without the big award. Passion seems on the side of “La La Land” in the way it was not for “The Revenant” and “Gravity” may have seemed too lightweight compared to a film about slavery. I suppose “La La Land” may seem lightweight compared to the tragedy of “Manchester by the Sea”, I will refrain from giving away spoiler details, but its Oscar nomination count is going to dwarf “Manchester” and I am not sure Casey Affleck can even win best actor with his seedy behavior. I do not see Oscar voters going two years in a row of giving a film just best picture and screenplay.December 18, 2016 at 4:34 pm #1201971722
Casey Affleck is a LOCK for the Best Actor win and MBTS is a lock to win Best Original Screenplay. There is a path to victory for Best Picture. As I’ve said before it’s either going to be LLL or MBTS.
I would be happy either way if La La Land or Manchester by the Sea wins BP! (:December 18, 2016 at 5:01 pm #1201971743
It’s about something important.
2) It was seen in Telluride.
3) It has a SAG ensemble nomination.
4) It passes the puppy-kicking test big time.
It misses n 2 key areas:
1. It’s not very important at all. Heavy drama but no social or political narratives to be gleaned from it.
4. It’s not really a consensus film to rally around since it fails the puppy kicking test. Sam Jackson is leading the charge against it
“The politics of what happens during this time of year is very interesting in Hollywood,” he said. “The movies they choose to say are amazing and great, you know — ‘Manchester by the Sea,’ oh my god, you must see it, it’s an amazing film!’ But, ehh, I guess it is — to somebody.”
“It’s not an inclusive film, you know what I mean?”
No way will it be able to get past the Oscars So White crowd.December 18, 2016 at 5:22 pm #1201971758
Eh, much as I adored Manchester, I definitely like La La Land and Moonlight‘s chances more in terms of forecasting Best Picture.
I know the Ordinary People comparison has been thrown around, and that certainly works in terms of contrasting the subject matter of the two films, but the parallels aren’t so close otherwise. That film was a smash box office hit, domestically taking in the equivalent of about $150 million today, and marked huge breakthroughs for Robert Redford at the director’s chair and Mary Tyler Moore as a serious big screen actress. Manchester is a decidedly smaller production and unlikely to leave half the same impact Ordinary People did in 1980. The Redford film also had the advantage of 3/4 of its competitors having absolutely zero chance at winning Best Picture.
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