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How many movies will be nominated for Best Picture @Oscars??

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  • That Don Guy
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    If there was ever a year to have all ten possible nominations, this is it – as proven by PGA.

    Remember how this works – assuming at least five do this, only films where at least 5% of the voting Academy members rank the film #1 get Best Picture nominations.

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    GusCruz
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    Remember how this works – assuming at least five do this, only films where at least 5% of the voting Academy members rank the film #1 get Best Picture nominations.

    Exactly — I meant there are many films this year with passionate fans, more than in the past few years

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    TheRedBoy
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    I have a sinking feeling that at least 5% of voting members will put The Disaster Artist at #1.

    But with that voting method, I could actually see Wonder Woman getting in over Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or I, Tonya.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    Definitely
    CMBYN
    THE POST
    LADY BIRD
    THE SHAPE OF WATER
    THREE BILLBOARDS.
    GET OUT
    Thats is my top SIX with THREE BILLBOARDS a sold favorite.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 1 month ago by  Thomas Eagan.
    • This reply was modified 2 years, 1 month ago by  Thomas Eagan.
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    DLG
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    Consensus 6:
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards…
    The Post

    Likely 7:
    Call Me By Your Name

    8:
    The Florida Project

    9:
    The Big Sick or Mudbound

    10:
    I, Tonya or Darkest Hour

    The Academy has never nominated less than 8, if I’m not mistaken, since expanding Best Picture. So CMBYN is probably good to go and The Florida Project has a good shot.

    I have a feeling Mudbound will be snubbed because of non-traditional, non-theatrical release. Not getting into PGA seemed like a warning sign to me. It’ll only get in with strong support from the actors’ branch.

    Completely agree with your predictions and your logic on Mudbound getting snub! I might add it just to fill slots and just in case something happens, but might put in The Disaster Artist because of the PGA nom, but can’t see more than 8-9 getting nom.

    And you’re right, the Academy has never nominated less than 8 pics since expanding.

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    Riley Chow
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    The academy has only nominated eight or nine nominees since changing the rules for 2011, but they ran simulations with the ballots from 2001 to 2008 and said that nominees in those years would have ranged from five to nine. So a number lower than eight will happen “again” eventually.

    Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards got Picture at both BAFTA and AACTA. The critics have demonstrated that Get Out and Lady Bird can get a ton of number-one votes. And I would not be surprised if that were it (six nominees).

    I have The Florida Project in seventh, but it missed PGA where there were eleven nominees and a movie with such grating personalities is a gamble. I have The Post in eighth, but it seemed to get PGA only because there were eleven nominees. Nobody is passionate about this movie.

    I defended Darkest Hour earlier in the season as a spiritual successor to the likes of The Theory of Everything and Bridge of Spies, but then it missed the expanded PGA lineup. This was a weird enough year with the likes of Get Out and Lady Bird being tipped as major contenders and it seems that the industry is going that direction. My point is that if Darkest Hour is such a flop, The Post is surely on high alert. But then Darkest Hour got a Best Film nomination at BAFTA, making it the first such nominee in five years without a supporting Direction/Screenplay/Editing nomination. The competition is looking weak. So I really could see six Best Picture nominees.

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    Anonymous
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    Anthony 🐜
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    Sticking with 8 Best Picture nominees this year.

    1) Get Out
    2) The Shape of Water
    3) Call Me By Your Name
    4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    5) Dunkirk
    6) Lady Bird
    7) The Post
    8) I, Tonya

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    Riley Chow
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    It needs DGA for me to predict it—a tall order, but not impossible.  It should have gotten BAFTA Editing too.

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