How many of the 24 Oscar categories are 100% locks?

[Marcus DixonKeymaster Joined: Jun 12th, 2011 Topics: 216 Posts: 737 View Predictions]

#217132

Every year at the Oscars, there are several categories that seem to be no-brainers and foregone conclusions. How many of this year’s 24 categories are 100% locks?

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[Andrew CardenParticipant Joined: Jan 16th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3398 View Predictions]

#217134

Lead Actor and Animated Feature

That’s it.

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[Tony RuizParticipant Joined: Nov 5th, 2010 Topics: 29 Posts: 802 View Predictions]

#217135

Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplays, and Animated Feature.

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[RileyParticipant Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 110 Posts: 13569 View Predictions]

#217136

Maybe not quite a hundred percent, but these are locks:

1. Best Director
2. Best Leading Actor
3. Best Leading Actress
4. Best Supporting Actor
5. Best Supporting Actress
6. Best Original Screenplay
7. Best Adapted Screenplay
8. Best Animated Feature
9. Best Documentary Feature
10. Best Foreign Language Film
11. Best Cinematography
12. Best Makeup & Hairstyling
13. Best Original Score

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[CheviParticipant Joined: Dec 8th, 2015 Topics: 0 Posts: 74 View Predictions]

#217137

Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Editing
Score
Animated Feature
Foreign Language

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[BirdParticipant Joined: Nov 5th, 2012 Topics: 4 Posts: 116 View Predictions]

#217138

In order of confidence (not including shorts):

1. Animated Feature
2. Lead Actor
3. Lead Actress
4. Adapted Screenplay
5. Foreign Language
6. Documentary
7. Original Screenplay
8. Makeup and Hairstyling
9. Cinematography
10.Production Design
11.Original Song
12.Supporting Actor

13.Sound Editing
14.Editing
15.Sound Mixing
16.Visual Effects
17.Costume Design

18.Supporting Actress
19.Director

20.Best Picture 

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 2694 View Predictions]

#217139

As a rule I never say 100%, but I’m 99% sure of these:

Director – Iñárritu
Actor – DiCaprio (duh)
Actress – Larson
Original Screenplay – Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay – The Big Short
Cinematography – The Revenant
Animated Feature – Inside Out

I don’t think anything else can really be called a lock, though a proper analysis of the Supporting Actress category clearly shows Alicia Vikander is the frontrunner, considering Kate Winslet only won where Vikander was in lead for TDG and none of the others have won anything of note. I’m holding back on calling this one a lock purely because of the irregularity of the category this season. In a different way this is also true for Stallone in Supporting Actor.

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[VolcarockaParticipant Joined: Mar 29th, 2015 Topics: 0 Posts: 298 View Predictions]

#217140

In terms of the main categories, DiCaprio is the only lock for me, simply because he had the singular best performance of the year, without question. Larson could lose to Ronan, Stallone could easily lose to Rylance, and S. Actress is just wide open (McAdams being the only one who can’t win here). Picture and Director are not categories to put money on this year.

In smaller categories, Animated Feature, both Screenplays, and Cinematography are as close to 100% as possible. 

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[GusCruzParticipant Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 53 Posts: 13325 View Predictions]

#217141

Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score (Bafta confirmed it), Original Song (unfortunately, as the Gaga/Warren is truly awful. But Gaga has been campaigning since last year’s ceremony. I don’t see anything else winning.), Animated Feature, Documentary (maybe not a 100% lock, but there’s not one, but three real challengers to Amy, so it’s harder for an upset), Foreign Language Film (I called this race over back in Cannes).

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[sturncParticipant Joined: Jan 11th, 2015 Topics: 2 Posts: 141 View Predictions]

#217142

Of the 24 categories I’d say that, while nothing is ever 100%, there are 11 that I cant imagine going to anything else, they are: Director-Inarritu
Actor-DiCaprio
Actress-Larson
Original/Adapted screenplay-Spotlight/Big Short
Production Design-Mad Max
Makeup & Hairstyling-Mad Max
Animated-Inside Out
Foreign-Son of Saul
Cinematography-Revenant
Score-Hateful Eight
I also think these four will win as well but I can see an upset, just a very very small chance of one, those are
Supporting Actor-Stallone
Supporting Actress-Vikander
Documentary-Amy
Song-Til’ it Happens to You
That leaves Picture, editing, the sounds, visual effects, costumes, and the shorts as the only ones im not entirely confident in. So I cant wait to be wrong on all of them.

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[Jalal HaddadParticipant Joined: Jul 14th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 576 View Predictions]

#217143

The only categories I would say are 100% locks are lead actor (Leonardi DiCaprio), Lead Actress (Brie Larson), Original Screenplay (Spotlight), Cinematography (The Revenant), Animated Feature (Inside Out), and documentary feature (Amy).

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[Andrew CardenParticipant Joined: Jan 16th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3398 View Predictions]

#217145

Surprised by all of this confidence for “Amy,” given Best Documentary Feature is a category fairly prone to upsets. I think the presence of the Nina Simone film may also draw some votes away from the front-runner.

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[PJ EdwardsParticipant Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 9 Posts: 2369 View Predictions]

#217144

Let’s see
1. Director
2. Actor
3. Supporting Actor
4. Original screenplay
5. Adapted screenplay
6. Actress
7. Production design
8. Cinematography
9. Original score
10. Original song
11. Documentary
12. Foreign film
13. Make up & hairstyling
14. Animated feature

Just missing would be supporting actress and visual effects.

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[Michael NorrisParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 285 View Predictions]

#217146

Every category where the frontrunner is not disputed is a lock.

J/K. Actor and Animated Feature only. 

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[RobertPiusParticipant Joined: Nov 22nd, 2012 Topics: 181 Posts: 1034 View Predictions]

#217147

So is “Amy” a lock? 

I don’t know what else is in contention but I think that one could be shakey with older academy members.  

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