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The 2020 Oscars were a game-changer in many ways – Parasite won Best Picture, long-going Oscar drystreaks for big actors were ended.
But the big structural change to the Oscars this year was… the shortening. By moving the Oscars from a late February to an early February, the whole awards season was condensed. Other awards crunched closer together in time. Everything went faster. But how did that effect the results?
- Would the Best Picture field be different?
- Would the acting fields change?
- Would any winners change?
- Would it still be the year of Parasite?
- Would any technical nominees/wins change?
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1917 might not have won PGA or DGA. It was definitely losing stream (like the Revenant) by the end. Joker / OUATIH / Irishman / 1917 would’ve been less dominating below the line, nominations wise.
I think it was always third place at best. There clearly wasn’t much passion for it. At least in the end. I believe Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was second place.
ReplyCopy URLI’ll answer my own questions
Would the Best Picture field be different?
I think all of the existing nominees would make it still – even Ford V Ferrari. The question is, do we get a +1? The Two Popes seems likely from the nominees we got, but that film got so many nominations to the point where I think it couldn’t get higher. It got watched by enough voters clearly. If any misses with more time, it might be Little Women.
So instead, I posit a shock Knives Out nomination. It was gaining momentum towards the end of this year’s campaign, and with a couple more weaks.
Would the acting fields change?
Yes. A lot. Well, not the winners. the sweeps were too strong. But the nominations? Easily.
Actress: I think Lupita Nyong’o’s campaign was impressive, and she might get that fifth slot over Saoirse Ronan – yeah I think that Cynthia was a no matter what nominee.
Actor: That The Two Popes nomination I see as being deeply vulnerable. Who benefits the most from more campaigning is Taron Edgerton for Rocketman.
Supporting Actress: That Kathy Bates slot was lucky. In this timeline, either the aggressively promoted but not a hit with voters J-Lo nomination or a surprise Annette Benning nomination
Supporting Actor: Hopkins was a stronger nomination than Pryce, but I think his slot goes to either Dafoe (The Lighthouse’s Cinematography nom shows it was getting eyes on it), or Foxx (a more traditional SAG-filtered Oscar nomination)
I don’t think the director nominees change – maybe Pedro Almodovar gets a nomination over Todd Phillips. I don’t think Greta Gerwig happens.
Would any winners change? Honestly, not really. The acting winners were locked even before nomination day. Parasite was massive already with voters. Maybe the nominations change, but not for wins.
Would it still be the year of Parasite? YES.
Would any technical nominees/wins change?
ReplyCopy URLMy Favourite Albums
Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE
Hounds of Love - Kate Bush
Since I Left You - The Avalanches
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Vespertine - Bjork
I think the main reason why all four acting winners were such a lock and did a clean sweep was because the season was so condensed, all awards bodies were voting around the same time. With a more stretched out season there would be much more variation in acting winners between awards shows.
ReplyCopy URLYes. A lot. Well, not the winners. the sweeps were too strong. But the nominations? Easily.
Actress: I think Lupita Nyong’o’s campaign was impressive, and she might get that fifth slot over Saoirse Ronan – yeah I think that Cynthia was a no matter what nominee.
Actor: That The Two Popes nomination I see as being deeply vulnerable. Who benefits the most from more campaigning is Taron Edgerton for Rocketman.
Supporting Actress: That Kathy Bates slot was lucky. In this timeline, either the aggressively promoted but not a hit with voters J-Lo nomination or a surprise Annette Benning nomination
Supporting Actor: Hopkins was a stronger nomination than Pryce, but I think his slot goes to either Dafoe (The Lighthouse’s Cinematography nom shows it was getting eyes on it), or Foxx (a more traditional SAG-filtered Oscar nomination)
The Two Popes was surging closer to voting end, so longer season would actually be beneficial to it imo. It could propably even get a Best Picture nom in a normal year. The one missing from Best Supporting Actor would be Hanks, and it would be for Song Kang-ho most propably, actors weren’t touching The Lighthouse with a ten foot pole.
ReplyCopy URLI think the main reason why all four acting winners were such a lock and did a clean sweep was because the season was so condensed, all awards bodies were voting around the same time. With a more stretched out season there would be much more variation in acting winners between awards shows.
The only one couldve been vulnerable to lose was Brad Pitt, but that’s also a stretch for lack of stronger narrative on other contenders (most were previous winners unless Parasite consciousness got really serious and Song saw some light). The other 3 categories were set in stone since october.
ReplyCopy URLThe only one couldve been vulnerable to lose was Brad Pitt, but that’s also a stretch for lack of stronger narrative on other contenders (most were previous winners unless Parasite consciousness got really serious and Song saw some light). The other 3 categories were set in stone since october.
I doubt Pitt would have lost. The response he got when he won was very telling.
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