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    SN
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    #1204142380

    How do you think the nominees would’ve looked like? In my opinion, the fate of last year nominees would’ve been:

    FvF, Little Women and OUATIH – 100% sure they all would’ve been delayed to next season.

    The Irishman, Marriage Story – Netflix films, so nothing would’ve changed.

    Jojo Rabbit – Searchlight film, so it would’ve been released exactly like Nomadland (Toronto, limited virtual run in December, theaters/streaming in February).

    Joker – WB would’ve delayed it to December and it would’ve been the first release under their HBO Max plan like WW84 was this year. Without the massive box office, I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.

    1917 – It’d still have been Universal main contender like PYW and News of the World.

    Parasite – It’d still have been talked about, but the release would’ve been more limited and without Cannes I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.

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    wolfali
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    #1204142393

    The first three would have been delayed and I’d argue 1917 would have too. Knives Out as well.

    Jojo Rabbit would have stood a better chance at breaking into director. I agree with your analysis about all the other films and I think Parasite would have been having a similar run as Minari (or worst comes to worse, Another Round).

    Marriage Story would have been a bigger contender and Alan Alda would have been considered for a nomination but he would have been snubbed by the precursors like Ellen Burstyn. Margot Robbie would have been a nominee contender for Bombshell but she’d have less of a leg up against Nicole Kidman without the extra buzz she had for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    J-Lo would have stood more of a chance. The Two Popes would have slipped into Picture and stood a chance in a few technicals. The Farewell‘s chances would have improved too.

    Antonio Banderas would not have been nominated.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204142449

    The first three would have been delayed and I’d argue 1917 would have too. Knives Out as well.

    Yeah, maybe 1917 would’ve been delayed. It was bigger and had more box office potential than NotW. Totally agree about Knives Out.

    Antonio Banderas would not have been nominated.

    I actually think he would’ve had more chances. Without their big releases, Sony would’ve focused more on Pain and Glory like they did with The Father under SPC this year. Almodovar would probably have been nominated like Pawel Palikowski and Thomas Vinterberg.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204142476

    I just can say thank God covid didn´t happen in 2019, though it would´ve been great if it didn´t happen in any year

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    wolfali
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    #1204142606

    I actually think he would’ve had more chances. Without their big releases, Sony would’ve focused more on Pain and Glory like they did with The Father under SPC this year. Almodovar would probably have been nominated like Pawel Palikowski and Thomas Vinterberg.

    I agree about Almodovar but I speculate that in this timeline that Banderas wouldn’t have had the buzz he had from winning at Cannes. Which would have effectively hampered his chances and turned him into another Madds Mikkelsen. My guess is also that the film would have had the same nominations haul at BAFTA as <i>Another Round</i>.

    Joker – WB would’ve delayed it to December and it would’ve been the first release under their HBO Max plan like WW84 was this year. Without the massive box office, I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.

    Something I just realised is that WB/HBO didn’t go live with HBO Max till May 2020 so Joker would probably have been delayed to this season.

    Anyway I’ve thought about it and here’s how I think the nominations would have turned out:

    —————————————————————————————–

    Best Picture

    A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    The Farewell
    The Irishman
    Jojo Rabbit
    Marriage Story
    Parasite
    The Two Popes

    Best Director

    – Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
    – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
    – Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
    – Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
    – Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

    Best Actress

    – Awkwafina, The Farewell
    – Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
    – Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
    – Charlize Theron, Bombshell
    – Renee Zellweger, Judy

    Best Actor

    – Robert De Niro, The Irishman
    – Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    – Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
    – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
    – Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood

    Best S. Actress (Richard Jewell would have been pushed back to 2020 imo)

    – Laura Dern, Marriage Story
    – Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
    – Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
    – Margot Robbie, Bombshell
    – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

    Best Supporting Actor

    – Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
    – Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    – Song Kang Ho, Parasite
    – Al Pacino, The Irishman
    – Joe Pesci, The Irishman

    Best Original Screenplay

    – Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite is My Name
    – Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
    – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
    – Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
    – Lulu Wang, The Farewell

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    – Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    – Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
    – Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
    – Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
    – Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Stank83
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    #1204142873

    Thank God it didn’t happen.

    Certainly 1917 wouldn’t have had that temporary buzz of the moment it got by some precursors.

    I think Marriage Story would have had more buzz, with Alda getting in Supporting.

    Jonathan Pryce would have never gotten in Actor, Egerton and DeNiro would have.

    At the end it would have still been between Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with Parasite sweeping everything.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204143024

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 wouldn’t have even been released darling if Covid happened in 2019. Same with Rocketman. Jonathan Pryce would have still been nominated.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204143046

    Something I just realised is that WB/HBO didn’t go live with HBO Max till May 2020 so Joker would probably have been delayed to this season.

    Oh true LOL I hadn’t realized that. Then Joker would probably have been delayed. Same for Disney releases like Mulan and The One and Only Ivan, since Disney+ didn’t debut until November 2019. I’m also not sure they would’ve had the guts to release Soul on streaming in time for awards.

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    wolfali
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    #1204143062

    One thing I wonder is how well Uncut Gems would have done if the pandemic happened in 2019.  I don’t think J-Lo would have come close to a nomination then but I wonder if Sandler could have gotten in. Probably not.

    I also wonder if Bombshell would have tanked like Ammonite (starry film with mediocre/average reviews) in a pandemic scenario. Zellweger and Dern would have still won regardless.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204143080

    There’s no much X factor to consider

    — Are we assuming it begins in March again?

    — Do studios sell off films? (Chicago7, Billie Holiday etc)?

    — Does a on verge of bankruptcy STX go hard for Hustlers without the box office?

    — Do A24/smaller no1curr indies build instead (Sound of Metal etc)?

    — Do Amazon buy up more contenders?

    — With an earlier pandemic, does the Borat get made earlier?

    — Without Cannes as a launchpad, does Parasite just end up more Another Round or Minari

    — Without festival and party circuits, does Banderas miss like Mads?

    — With a strong (pre-pandemic) box office, does universal push even harder for Lupita and Us? (it felt like they give up on Moss because Nyong’o didn’t happen)

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204143092

    Jonathan Pryce would have never gotten in Actor, Egerton and DeNiro would have.

    Rocketman opened in May though, assuming the lockdowns begin in March 2019 (like 2020.

    If they opened it during the pandemic, it probably would’ve been received like Tenet. And I don’t think Elton or Fletcher would allow Paramount to sell to a streamer.

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    DanC
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    #1204143099

    Best Picture

    + A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    + Bombshell
    + The Farewell
    + The Irishman
    + Jojo Rabbit
    + Marriage Story
    + Parasite
    + The Two Popes

    Best Director

    + Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
    + Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
    + Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
    + Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
    + Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

    Best Actress

    + Awkwafina, The Farewell
    + Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
    + Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
    + Charlize Theron, Bombshell
    + Renee Zellweger, Judy

    Best Actor

    + Robert De Niro, The Irishman
    + Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    + Taron Egerton, Rocketman (film gets sold to a streamer, Netflix?)
    + Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
    + Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

    Best Supporting Actress (I have no idea what to do here, I’m not sure if Hustlers would have gotten the mainstream buzz that it did, Kidman was a SAG thing, & if Jodie Foster couldn’t happen with a win, Bening is not happening)

    + Laura Dern, Marriage Story
    + Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
    + Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
    + Margot Robbie, Bombshell
    + Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

    Best Supporting Actor (I feel like it would have been Hanks vs Kang-Ho, just a gut feeling)

    + Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood (on a streamer)
    + Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
    + Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
    + Al Pacino, The Irishman
    + Joe Pesci, The Irishman

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    + A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    + Dark Waters
    + The Two Popes
    + Jojo Rabbit
    + The Irishman

    Best Original Screenplay

    + Bombshell ?
    + Marriage Story
    + Pain & Glory
    + Parasite
    + The Farewell

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204143124

    PICTURE

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
    Honey Boy (Amazon)
    The Farewell (A24)
    JoJo Rabbit (Searchlight)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (NEON)
    Us (Universal)

    DIRECTOR

    Pedro Almodovar – Pain & Glory
    Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
    Alma Har’el – Honey Boy
    Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    ACTOR

    Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory
    Adam Driver – Marriage Story
    Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Luce
    Song Kang Ho – Parasite
    Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

    ACTRESS

    Awkwafina – The Farewell
    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
    Lupita Nyong’o – Us
    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    SUP. ACTOR

    Alan Alda – Marriage Story
    Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
    Noah Jupe – Honey Boy
    Al Pacino – The Irishman
    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    SUP. ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story
    Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
    Park So-dam – Parasite
    Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
    Octavia Spencer – Luce

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204143131

    Best Original Screenplay

    + Bombshell ?
    + Marriage Story
    + Pain & Glory
    + Parasite
    + The Farewell

    Bombshell probably ends up like Ammonite (mini-major studio movie, huge stars, meh received).

    I think without a pandemic Universal goes nuts with “Us”, like Invisible Man, the last film pre-pandemic and what soured them on going all in TIM/Moss was Nyong’o missing in the end.

    They go hard for Us, it’s better reception with less “biggies” and it being Peele’s follow up.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204143146

    Also something to consider, Sound of Metal premiered at TIFF 2019.

    Let’s assume that still happens and Amazon still buys it from there, and instead of waiting, they decide to push it immediately, does it still get the same noms as this year?

    Or do they still wait and go even harder for Honey Boy/The Aeronauts/The Report?

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