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How do you think the nominees would’ve looked like? In my opinion, the fate of last year nominees would’ve been:
FvF, Little Women and OUATIH – 100% sure they all would’ve been delayed to next season.
The Irishman, Marriage Story – Netflix films, so nothing would’ve changed.
Jojo Rabbit – Searchlight film, so it would’ve been released exactly like Nomadland (Toronto, limited virtual run in December, theaters/streaming in February).
Joker – WB would’ve delayed it to December and it would’ve been the first release under their HBO Max plan like WW84 was this year. Without the massive box office, I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.
1917 – It’d still have been Universal main contender like PYW and News of the World.
Parasite – It’d still have been talked about, but the release would’ve been more limited and without Cannes I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.
ReplyThe first three would have been delayed and I’d argue 1917 would have too. Knives Out as well.
Jojo Rabbit would have stood a better chance at breaking into director. I agree with your analysis about all the other films and I think Parasite would have been having a similar run as Minari (or worst comes to worse, Another Round).
Marriage Story would have been a bigger contender and Alan Alda would have been considered for a nomination but he would have been snubbed by the precursors like Ellen Burstyn. Margot Robbie would have been a nominee contender for Bombshell but she’d have less of a leg up against Nicole Kidman without the extra buzz she had for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood…
J-Lo would have stood more of a chance. The Two Popes would have slipped into Picture and stood a chance in a few technicals. The Farewell‘s chances would have improved too.
Antonio Banderas would not have been nominated.
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The first three would have been delayed and I’d argue 1917 would have too. Knives Out as well.
Yeah, maybe 1917 would’ve been delayed. It was bigger and had more box office potential than NotW. Totally agree about Knives Out.
Antonio Banderas would not have been nominated.
I actually think he would’ve had more chances. Without their big releases, Sony would’ve focused more on Pain and Glory like they did with The Father under SPC this year. Almodovar would probably have been nominated like Pawel Palikowski and Thomas Vinterberg.
ReplyCopy URLI actually think he would’ve had more chances. Without their big releases, Sony would’ve focused more on Pain and Glory like they did with The Father under SPC this year. Almodovar would probably have been nominated like Pawel Palikowski and Thomas Vinterberg.
I agree about Almodovar but I speculate that in this timeline that Banderas wouldn’t have had the buzz he had from winning at Cannes. Which would have effectively hampered his chances and turned him into another Madds Mikkelsen. My guess is also that the film would have had the same nominations haul at BAFTA as <i>Another Round</i>.
Joker – WB would’ve delayed it to December and it would’ve been the first release under their HBO Max plan like WW84 was this year. Without the massive box office, I’m not sure it would’ve been a contender.
Something I just realised is that WB/HBO didn’t go live with HBO Max till May 2020 so Joker would probably have been delayed to this season.
Anyway I’ve thought about it and here’s how I think the nominations would have turned out:
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Best Picture
– A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
– The Farewell
– The Irishman
– Jojo Rabbit
– Marriage Story
– Parasite
– The Two PopesBest Director
– Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
– Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
– Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
– Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
– Taika Waititi, Jojo RabbitBest Actress
– Awkwafina, The Farewell
– Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
– Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
– Charlize Theron, Bombshell
– Renee Zellweger, JudyBest Actor
– Robert De Niro, The Irishman
– Adam Driver, Marriage Story
– Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
– Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
– Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the NeighbourhoodBest S. Actress (Richard Jewell would have been pushed back to 2020 imo)
– Laura Dern, Marriage Story
– Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
– Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
– Margot Robbie, Bombshell
– Zhao Shuzhen, The FarewellBest Supporting Actor
– Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
– Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
– Song Kang Ho, Parasite
– Al Pacino, The Irishman
– Joe Pesci, The IrishmanBest Original Screenplay
– Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite is My Name
– Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
– Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
– Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
– Lulu Wang, The FarewellBest Adapted Screenplay
– Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
– Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
– Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
– Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
– Steven Zaillian, The IrishmanReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
Thank God it didn’t happen.
Certainly 1917 wouldn’t have had that temporary buzz of the moment it got by some precursors.
I think Marriage Story would have had more buzz, with Alda getting in Supporting.
Jonathan Pryce would have never gotten in Actor, Egerton and DeNiro would have.
At the end it would have still been between Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with Parasite sweeping everything.
ReplyCopy URLOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 wouldn’t have even been released darling if Covid happened in 2019. Same with Rocketman. Jonathan Pryce would have still been nominated.
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
Something I just realised is that WB/HBO didn’t go live with HBO Max till May 2020 so Joker would probably have been delayed to this season.
Oh true LOL I hadn’t realized that. Then Joker would probably have been delayed. Same for Disney releases like Mulan and The One and Only Ivan, since Disney+ didn’t debut until November 2019. I’m also not sure they would’ve had the guts to release Soul on streaming in time for awards.
ReplyCopy URLOne thing I wonder is how well Uncut Gems would have done if the pandemic happened in 2019. I don’t think J-Lo would have come close to a nomination then but I wonder if Sandler could have gotten in. Probably not.
I also wonder if Bombshell would have tanked like Ammonite (starry film with mediocre/average reviews) in a pandemic scenario. Zellweger and Dern would have still won regardless.
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
There’s no much X factor to consider
— Are we assuming it begins in March again?
— Do studios sell off films? (Chicago7, Billie Holiday etc)?
— Does a on verge of bankruptcy STX go hard for Hustlers without the box office?
— Do A24/smaller no1curr indies build instead (Sound of Metal etc)?
— Do Amazon buy up more contenders?
— With an earlier pandemic, does the Borat get made earlier?
— Without Cannes as a launchpad, does Parasite just end up more Another Round or Minari
— Without festival and party circuits, does Banderas miss like Mads?
— With a strong (pre-pandemic) box office, does universal push even harder for Lupita and Us? (it felt like they give up on Moss because Nyong’o didn’t happen)
ReplyCopy URLJonathan Pryce would have never gotten in Actor, Egerton and DeNiro would have.
Rocketman opened in May though, assuming the lockdowns begin in March 2019 (like 2020.
If they opened it during the pandemic, it probably would’ve been received like Tenet. And I don’t think Elton or Fletcher would allow Paramount to sell to a streamer.
ReplyCopy URLBest Picture
+ A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
+ Bombshell
+ The Farewell
+ The Irishman
+ Jojo Rabbit
+ Marriage Story
+ Parasite
+ The Two PopesBest Director
+ Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
+ Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
+ Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
+ Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
+ Taika Waititi, Jojo RabbitBest Actress
+ Awkwafina, The Farewell
+ Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
+ Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
+ Charlize Theron, Bombshell
+ Renee Zellweger, JudyBest Actor
+ Robert De Niro, The Irishman
+ Adam Driver, Marriage Story
+ Taron Egerton, Rocketman (film gets sold to a streamer, Netflix?)
+ Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
+ Jonathan Pryce, The Two PopesBest Supporting Actress (I have no idea what to do here, I’m not sure if Hustlers would have gotten the mainstream buzz that it did, Kidman was a SAG thing, & if Jodie Foster couldn’t happen with a win, Bening is not happening)
+ Laura Dern, Marriage Story
+ Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
+ Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
+ Margot Robbie, Bombshell
+ Zhao Shuzhen, The FarewellBest Supporting Actor (I feel like it would have been Hanks vs Kang-Ho, just a gut feeling)
+ Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood (on a streamer)
+ Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
+ Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
+ Al Pacino, The Irishman
+ Joe Pesci, The IrishmanBest Adapted Screenplay
+ A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
+ Dark Waters
+ The Two Popes
+ Jojo Rabbit
+ The IrishmanBest Original Screenplay
+ Bombshell ?
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+ Marriage Story
+ Pain & Glory
+ Parasite
+ The FarewellPICTURE
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
The Farewell (A24)
JoJo Rabbit (Searchlight)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Parasite (NEON)
Us (Universal)DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar – Pain & Glory
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Alma Har’el – Honey Boy
Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
Martin Scorsese – The IrishmanACTOR
Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Luce
Song Kang Ho – Parasite
Jonathan Pryce – The Two PopesACTRESS
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Renee Zellweger – JudySUP. ACTOR
Alan Alda – Marriage Story
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Noah Jupe – Honey Boy
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The IrishmanSUP. ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
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Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
Park So-dam – Parasite
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
Octavia Spencer – LuceBest Original Screenplay
+ Bombshell ?
+ Marriage Story
+ Pain & Glory
+ Parasite
+ The FarewellBombshell probably ends up like Ammonite (mini-major studio movie, huge stars, meh received).
I think without a pandemic Universal goes nuts with “Us”, like Invisible Man, the last film pre-pandemic and what soured them on going all in TIM/Moss was Nyong’o missing in the end.
They go hard for Us, it’s better reception with less “biggies” and it being Peele’s follow up.
ReplyCopy URLAlso something to consider, Sound of Metal premiered at TIFF 2019.
Let’s assume that still happens and Amazon still buys it from there, and instead of waiting, they decide to push it immediately, does it still get the same noms as this year?
Or do they still wait and go even harder for Honey Boy/The Aeronauts/The Report?
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