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If MS was not released in 2019, what would the SA race have looked like?

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    Crackleking
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    My hot take on this hypothetical:

    Globes: Jóhannsson would have been nominated over dern. However, as she was not a strong player here,  Lopez would have won, as she had the bigger critical support and trajectory.

    Critics Choice: As Lopez was the clear second choice in critics circles, she would have certainly won here , especially as they tend to rubber stamp the globe winner.

    SAG: As Jojo Rabbit surprised here with strong support after its bleak globes nominations  I think Jóhannsson would have won as Jojo was more widely seen and respected among actors, in comparison to hustlers.

    BAFTA: While Jojo can be argued to have over performed  compared to Little Women as it had the surprise editing and score noms, the growing support for LW throughout the season, coupled with the British factor would have seen Pugh take this.

    Oscar: As Jojo showed strong support with its AS win over other BP nominees, it was clearly a fan favourite and a likely 3rd place BP ranking. Therefore, Jóhannsson, encompassing much of the heart and soul of the film, along with a sag win and clear support from the anonymous ballots, would see her secure the win.

     

     

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    gorman
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    I think Lopez would’ve been the 5th nominee and Johansson would definitely have won for Jojo Rabbit. It would’ve been a slightly more interesting race though.

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    OneAndOnly
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    1. Globes Nominate Johansson and Give Lopez the Win.
    2. SAG Nominates Smith and Gives Johansson the Win.
    3. BAFTA nominates Lopez and Gives Johansson the Win.
    4. AMPAS nominates Lopez and Gives Johansson the Win.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
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    Potatohead
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    I’d like to think Pugh would’ve pulled a shocking win, but Johansson does seem much more likely. I honestly wouldn’t mind seeing Laura Dern win for Little Women, because I liked her more in that movie anyway.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    I think Johansson would’ve swept the precursors, like the three other acting winners in this shortened season.

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    BICTH
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    I think people should remember that johansson missed the nomination at the globes, she could very well win but it won’t be a clean sweep

    dern might still get a nomination for little women, you never know, a very good performance + her campaign prowess + the acting branch’s goodwill for her (and the film in general since pugh got in despite major snubs) could have done it for her

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    Dan Backslide
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    Scarlett would’ve won.

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    Gabarnes43
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    Would Dern have been nominated for Little Women

    6th Place WGA 2021
    12th Place VES 2021
    61st Place BAFTA nominations 2021

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    BenitoDelicias
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    What is “the British factor”, because all I see is a British Academy trying to copy/predict what the American Academy is gonna do and what other American awards have already done.

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    M: The Original
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    Johansson and Robbie would have been competitive for the win.

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    Gabarnes43
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    Globe- Robbie (Johansson Nom)

    SAG- Johansson (Smith Nom)

    Critics Choice- JLo (Kidman Nom)

    BAFTA- Pugh (Smith Nom)

    Oscars- Johansson (Kidman Nom)

    6th Place WGA 2021
    12th Place VES 2021
    61st Place BAFTA nominations 2021

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    JackO
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    ScarJo would have swept. She had double nods and Jojo was strong.

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    The Girls' Room
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    watch I May Destroy You

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    John Berchmans
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    I think I said this in a different thread, but I’m pretty sure this race would have gone the same as the 2007 Supporting Actor race. Jennifer Lopez would have followed the path of Eddie Murphy: winning the Globe because of her showy performance, and the CC and SAG because they’re sheep who rubber-stamp the Globe winners, and she probably would have been nominated at the BAFTA’s and Oscars as well, but would have lost their because of her past history and disdain among members. Johansson would have followed the path of Arkin: winning BAFTA because they love her (she won for Lost in Translation in 2004) and the Oscar (because Jojo Rabbit had passionate fans and the double nomination, plus Screenplay and Acting get paired together a lot).

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Dan Backslide
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    ScarJo would have swept. She had double nods and Jojo was strong.

    I think you’re forgetting that the scenario would remove her Marriage Story nomination. Personally, that plays a part in why I think she’d win. I thought her support was divided between Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit meaning that there wasn’t a clear consensus around her. Take Marriage Story out of the equation and that problem is fixed.

    Robbie had a timely role, but there didn’t seem to be much passion for Bombshell, same could be said for Bate’s film. Pugh also felt like too much of a newcomer to be rewarded, but maybe she could’ve winded up taking it as it would serve as a reward for Little Women and Midsommar. Whoever would’ve been the fifth slot obviously didn’t have enough passion since they didn’t get in, so there’s no way they would’ve won.

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