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If The Tale had a cinema release & Dern won in 2019, who would've won S.Actress?

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If The Tale had a cinema release & Dern won in 2019, who would've won S.Actress?
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Still Laura Dern
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    wolfali
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    I feel it would have been Robbie. She lost for I Tonya and had Dern already had an Oscar, this would have been her year.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Babygirl
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    #1203343385

    If Dern already won before, Johansson would win, especially with how strong Jojo was this season.

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    cinetastic
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    Dern would have deserved to win for the Tale more than she deserved to win for Marriage Story. So, then the lucky one would be ScarJo.

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    John Berchmans
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    I feel it would have been Robbie. She lost for I Tonya and had Dern already had an Oscar, this would have been her year.

    Robbie didn’t have the right film. People hated Bombshell and it flopped, both at the box office and awards circuit. I think it would have been Johansson who won this year, since she had built up a strong overdue narrative of her own and also had the double nomination. Plus Jojo got a lot of love from Academy voters and won Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s not hard in an alternate universe to see Jojo Rabbit pulling off the same acting/screenplay combo as Manchester, Django, Precious, Milk, and Little Miss Sunshine.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    estrelas
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    I don’t know tbh. I know the logic answer would be Scarlett but i really don’t know… I think if Laura had won The Tale she wouldn’t have been nominated this year. I think it’s safe to assume that JLo would have been nominated.  My thinking is that JLo would have won both GG and CC. Scarlett would have (probably) been nominated at GG. I think Florence could have won BAFTA. I do think JLo could have won SAG but it would depend on how strong would Scarlett be there in Supporting. Would they rely on her for Jojo or would she split votes with herself?! I’m not sure. I think that if Laura had been out of the race this year, the outcome would be a total mess tbh. There’s a possibility that precursors could have had different winners.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    jez89
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    Dern didn’t even win the Emmy for The Tale, in what universe would she have won an Oscar for it?

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    Seven
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    Jlo was never gonna win anything, Dern or not. The industry didn’t care about Hustlers.

    ScarJo probably would have won

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    estrelas
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    Jlo was never gonna win anything, Dern or not. The industry didn’t care about Hustlers. ScarJo probably would have won

    We don’t know. She was most likely 6th in the voting. We will never know what outcome we would get if Laura had been out of the race this year. We also know precursors are lazy as hell nowadays so it’s pretty safe to assume that whomever won GG would win CC and most likely SAG. JLo was likely 2nd at GG so i think without Laura she would have prevailed there and so on. I’m not saying she would win the Oscar but her winning GG, CC and possibly SAG wouldn’t be out of the question.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    We don’t know. She was most likely 6th in the voting. We will never know what outcome we would get if Laura had been out of the race this year. We also know precursors are lazy as hell nowadays so it’s pretty safe to assume that whomever won GG would win CC and most likely SAG. JLo was likely 2nd at GG so i think without Laura she would have prevailed there and so on. I’m not saying she would win the Oscar but her winning GG, CC and possibly SAG wouldn’t be out of the question.

    I feel like there was too much residual resentment towards JLo that we didn’t take seriously. JLo had made so many enemies with her past diva behavior and made so many crappy movies that she was a laughingstock for some time. Plus this forum never said anything about Laura not being nominated for Marriage Story as far I as can tell (I may be wrong though, please correct me if I am).

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    estrelas
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    I feel like there was too much residual resentment towards JLo that we didn’t take seriously. JLo had made so many enemies with her past diva behavior and made so many crappy movies that she was a laughingstock for some time. Plus this forum never said anything about Laura not being nominated for Marriage Story as far I as can tell (I may be wrong though, please correct me if I am).

    Some of us (including me) are assuming that had she won for The Tale she wouldn’t have been nominated this year.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    estrelas
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    I feel like there was too much residual resentment towards JLo that we didn’t take seriously. JLo had made so many enemies with her past diva behavior and made so many crappy movies that she was a laughingstock for some time. 

    I see your point but i think that fits more in her possibility or not at wining SAG. But i think she would’ve been safe for both GG and CC. I don’t think she ever did anything to them.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    Babygirl
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    Lol I bet you a Parasite actress (probably Cho) were ahead of JLo during the voting process.

    If Dern wasn’t nominated, maybe JLo would win Globes but Scarlett would’ve had BAFTA on lock and maybe win SAG as well. Either way, JLo would not win the Oscar over Scarlett.

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    BICTH
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    #1203343685

    now dern vs. colman would’ve been a battle worth seeing, two true powerhouse performances right there, but I do feel like colman would’ve edged out by having the stronger film, or maybe close would’ve claimed her trophy since the passion votes would be split between the two

    if she had won, I think she still would’ve been nominated for marriage story even if she misses all the precursors as she did for wild. robbie’s film is too weak, and the fact that jlo missed the nomination shows there’s clearly animosity towards her. it would be between johansson and pugh.

    there’s also a timeline where little women got an european festival premiere, pugh sweeps in a cakewalk and dern gets in for the right performance, but I digress

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    Babygirl
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    The race would be between Johansson and Pugh but Pugh would’ve never won.

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    John Berchmans
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    We don’t know. She was most likely 6th in the voting. We will never know what outcome we would get if Laura had been out of the race this year. We also know precursors are lazy as hell nowadays so it’s pretty safe to assume that whomever won GG would win CC and most likely SAG. JLo was likely 2nd at GG so i think without Laura she would have prevailed there and so on. I’m not saying she would win the Oscar but her winning GG, CC and possibly SAG wouldn’t be out of the question.

    My guess is that if Dern was out of the race, JLo would have pulled an Eddie Murphy: winning the Globe, CC, and SAG awards but getting snubbed for the win at the BAFTA’s and then the Oscars. ScarJo could have easily reversed momentum at the BAFTA’s, since they love her and already awarded her in 2004. And JLo’s smug attitude and past controversies would have prevented her from getting the Oscar gold.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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