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    Jeffrey Kare
    Joined:
    Jan 23rd, 2013
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    #1203347596

    Here are my guesses…

    2009:
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Bastards
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010:
    The Fighter
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2011:
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris
    Moneyball

    2012:
    Argo
    Les Misérables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    2013:
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Captain Phillips
    Gravity
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014:
    American Sniper
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game

    2015:
    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

    2016:
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight

    2017:
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2018:
    BlacKkKlansman
    The Favourite
    Green Book
    Roma
    Vice

    2019:
    1917
    The Irishman
    Joker
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
    Joined:
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    #1203347597

    I doubt Jojo Rabbit will be in top 5. The Best Directing nominees will likely matched the Best Picture.

    I greatly disagree although what you are saying may be a possibility. Whilst The Irishman got more nominations than Jojo Rabbit, there seemed to be a lack of passion for it (evident by the fact it didn’t win anything).

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    Chimichanggas
    Joined:
    Dec 13th, 2017
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    #1203347667

    2009:
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Bastards
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010:
    The Fighter
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2011:
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Help
    Hugo
    Moneyball

    2012:
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    2013:
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Captain Phillips
    Gravity
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014:
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game
    The Theory of Everything

    2015:
    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

    2016:
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight

    2017:
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2018:
    BlacKkKlansman
    The Favourite
    Green Book
    Roma
    A Star Is Born

    2019:
    1917
    The Irishman
    Joker
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203347860

    2009: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Bastards, Precious, Up in the Air

    2010: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Inception, The Fighter, True Grit

    2011: The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Moneyball

    2012: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Djanjo Unchained

    2013: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything

    2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Bug Short, Mad Max Fury Road, Room

    2016: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Fences, Arrival

    2017: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk

    2018: Green Book, Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, BlackkKlansman, A Star is Born

    2019: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, Jojo Rabbit

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Chevi
    Joined:
    Dec 8th, 2015
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    #1203348061

    2009:
    The Hurt Locker
    Avatar
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010:
    The King’s Speech
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2011:
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Help
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris

    2012:
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    2013:
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Captain Phillips
    Dallas Buyers Club
    Gravity

    2014:
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game
    The Theory of Everything

    2015:
    Spotlight
    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant

    2016:
    Moonlight
    Arrival
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea

    2017:
    The Shape of Water
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2018:
    Green Book
    BlacKkKlansman
    The Favourite
    Roma
    Vice

    2019:
    Parasite
    The Irishman
    Joker
    1917
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Chevi.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Chevi.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Chevi.
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    jsn
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    Nov 24th, 2018
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    #1203348106

    2009: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, Up in the Air, Precious.

     

    2010: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit, The Fighter, Inception.

     

    2011: The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Moneyball.

     

    2012: Argo, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Les Misérables.

     

    2013: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street.

     

    2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything.

     

    2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian.

     

    2016: Moonlight, La La Land, ArrivaI, Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge.

     

    2017: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Get Out.

     

    2018: Green Book, Roma, BlackKklansman, The Favourite, A Star Is Born.

     

    2019: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, Joker, The Irishman.

     

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1203348119

    Darlings, this year:

    Paramess, Dunkirk 2, Once and Always Trash in Hollywood, Clownery, Jojo Rubbish

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203348130

    At both BAFTA and AACTA, The Irishman was shut out, while Jojo Rabbit won screenplay without even being nominated for director.  All of this was also true at the Oscars.  At both BAFTA and AACTA, The Irishman was one of the five Best Picture nominees over Jojo Rabbit, hence I do not see why it would have been different at the Oscars.

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203348150

    At both BAFTA and AACTA, The Irishman was shut out, while Jojo Rabbit won screenplay without even being nominated for director. All of this was also true at the Oscars. At both BAFTA and AACTA, The Irishman was one of the five Best Picture nominees over Jojo Rabbit, hence I do not see why it would have been different at the Oscars.

    The last time a Screenplay winner wasn’t nominated for Picture was 2002. In Adapted Screenplay it was 1998. The chances of Joko Rabbit not being nominated even on a 5 film roster were slim. Plus it had the People’s Choice at TIFF.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203348157

    Call Me by Your NameDjango Unchained and Her won screenplay, but only got Best Picture nominations because there were more than five nominees, which is the crux here.  Bringing up Toronto is kind of random.

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    Seven
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1203348162

    A Star Is Born was in 6th position at best. Green Book, Roma, Blackkklansman and The Favourite were the top 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vice and/or BoRap were above it too. ASIB missed director and editing and won absolutely nothing major during the season

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Seven.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Seven.
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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203348222

    Call Me by Your Name, Django Unchained and Her won screenplay, but only got Best Picture nominations because there were more than five nominees, which is the crux here. Bringing up Toronto is kind of random.

    I’m arguing that CMBYN, Her, and Django would have been nominated for Picture too, even if it were just 5. At the least least Django for sure was in the final 5. And I think Jojo Rabbit was a stronger contender than all 3 of those films.

    And TIFF isn’t random because it’s a major industry prize, and 9/10 of this decade’s winners got nominated for Picture. Irishman had nothing except critic awards going into the precursors.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Cordelia
    Joined:
    Jul 15th, 2018
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    #1203348356

    I do like this, and pondering what it means. Italics meaning 5th place (slimmest margin), bold meaning wins.

    2009

    Avatar

    Inglorious Basterds

    Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire

    The Hurt Locker

    Up In The Air

    2010

    Black Swan

    Inception

    The King’s Speech

    The Social Network

    True Grit

    2011

    Hugo

    Midnight In Paris

    The Artist

    The Descendants

    The Help

    2012

    Argo

    Life of Pi

    Lincoln

    Silver Linings Playbook

    Zero Dark Thirty

    2013

    12 Years A Slave

    American Hustle

    Dallas Buyers Club

    Gravity

    The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014

    American Sniper

    Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

    Boyhood

    The Grand Budapest Hotel

    Whiplash

    2015

    Bridge of Spies

    Spotlight

    Mad Max: Fury Road (this was second place in 2015, not the Revenant, don’t @ me)

    The Big Short

    The Revenant

    2016

    Arrival

    Hacksaw Ridge

    La La Land

    Manchester By The Sea

    Moonlight

    2017

    Dunkirk

    Get Out

    Lady Bird

    The Shape of Water

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2018

    BlackKklansman

    Bohemian Rhapsody

    Green Book

    Roma

    The Favourite

    2019

    1917

    Joker

    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

    Parasite

    The Irishman (even with no wins, I think this had enough nominations that it would’ve gotten nominated, albeit by the skin of its dentures)

    … Now for the graveyard of what’s left, which I will sort into four categories.

    Just Missed The Cut – films that are effectively 6th place, had momentum, and meet a lot of requirements but just fell short

    • The Blind Side (That film was a box office monster, and Sandra’s narrative is honestly the most well-planned Best Actress narrative of the >5 era)
    • 127 Hours
    • The Fighter
    • Moneyball
    • Django Unchained
    • Beasts of the Southern Wild
    • The Imitation Game
    • Hidden Figures
    • Call Me By Your Name (sorry chalamet twink fans)
    • A Star Is Born
    • Jojo Rabbit

    Too Mainstream/Genre/Blockbustery – the sort of WALL-E/The Dark Knight crowd that the nomination count was expanded to include

    • District 9
    • Up
    • Toy Story 3 (sorry, without expansion, no more animated Best Picture nominees)
    • Captain Phillips (slightly lower scale success, but didn’t fit neatly into other categories)
    • The Martian
    • Black Panther

    Too Arthouse/Small/Indie/Weird/Foreign(?) – these were more small or niche films with dedicated fanbases that would be smothered out of the 5

    • An Education
    • A Serious Man
    • The Kids Are Alright
    • Winter’s Bone (I want to say choice words to the Academy members who hated this Best Picture nomination so much that it’s no longer 10 but 5-10 fluctuating based on bullshit)
    • The Tree of Life
    • Amour
    • Her
    • Nebraska
    • Selma
    • Room
    • Phantom Thread
    • Little Women

    This Had Oscar Buzz honorary – This is for hyper-campaigned films that would have (mostly rightly) slipped past the 5 system but brute forced into the 5+.

    • Extremely Loud and Terribly Close
    • War Horse
    • Les Miserables
    • Philomena
    • The Theory of Everything
    • Brooklyn
    • Fences
    • Lion
    • Darkest Hour
    • The Post
    • Vice
    • Ford V Ferrari
    • Marriage Story

    The ratio of wheat to chaff the new system put in is inconsistent, but so would the regular 5 slot nominations. Notably egregious Best Picture nominations such as Hacksaw Ridge and Bohemian Rhapsody would have happened regardless of the 5 systems, even if we’d be saved from a Vice or an Extremely Loud.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    Emil Petrov
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    #1203348488

    I personally don’t like the extension of Best Picture nominees from 5 to “at most 10”, eventhough I still think Dark Knight/Wall-E was wrongfully snubbed for the dreadful The Reader back in 2008.

    So let’s pretend we didn’t have this non-sense, for the last three ceremony who do you think would have made the final 5 (with a ranking of the votes they received) ? Would they just correlate with the best director categories? What would you have liked to see as the final five out of the 9 – 10 nominees? Also, what about this year out of all the contenders?

    IMO

    2009:

    The Hurt LockerAvatarInglourious BasterdsUp in the Air Precious

    2010:

    The King’s SpeechThe Social NetworkInceptionThe FighterBlack Swan

    2011:

    The ArtistHugoThe DescendentsMoney Ball Tree of Life

    2012 (perhaps):

    ArgoZero Dark 30 LincolnSilver Linings Play BookLes Miserables

    (Pook is going to hate me, but I think Argo will pull off a win) I still haven’t seen Zero Dark 30 out of the list.

    Share your thoughts

    There is no way in a million years that Life of Pi was missing even with 5. It was a beloved film that won Director.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203348611

    2009: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Bastards, Precious, Up in the Air

    2010: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Inception, The Fighter, Black Swan

    2011: The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Moneyball

    2012: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained

    2013: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, American Sniper

    2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Max Fury Road, Room

    2016: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge

    2017: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk

    2018: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, BlackkKlansman, A Star is Born

    2019: Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, Jojo Rabbit

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by Gabe Guarin.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by Gabe Guarin.
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