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Is a surprise coming ?

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  • Sandrine Onaissi
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    #178577

    Two journalists posted some really interesting things concerning BP. What is telling is that a surprise could be very possible :

    First is what Pete Hammond is saying on his site : 
    “But does that mean — with all the guild results now in except for Costume Designers, who hold their awards show tomorrow — that Birdman is a sure thing for Oscar? No. This is still too tight a race and voting has been coming in extremely late this year. Oddly, when talking to members — some even casting their ballots as we speak — I don’t get a unanimous verdict on anything. Whiplash, in fact, remains the mentioned movie with those I talk to. One Academy member said, “It would be AMAZING if Whiplash wins. There will be many stroke victims in the audience”. This member voted for it across the board. And despite the guilds, that pair of triple BAFTA wins for both Boyhood and Whiplash carry significant weight.”
    http://deadline.com/2015/02/birdman-barbra-streisand-sarah-jones-asc-awards-1201374638/

    Then, Mark Harris; on his twitter :
    “@MarkHarrisNYC: Most Oscar voters I’ve talked to aren’t voting for Birdman for Best Picture. The sense I get is that nothing has a majority, or close to it.”

    Do you think we could finally have a surprise ?

    PS : Harvey is looking really pathetic now :

    [IMG]http://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/572865Capturedcran20150217100015.png[/IMG] 

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #178579

    All the support for Whiplash won’t do much in picture but it could do wonders in other categories. There is the possibility of the film winning 3 or 4 Oscars. This year has been the most predictable year and then it suddenly became totally unpredictable.

    Picture is obviously head-to-head, as is directing.
    Actor is has a favorite by a slight margin and Keaton (or even Cooper) could surprise.
    Original Screenplay has two very strong favorites.
    Adapted Screenplay is anybody’s guess.
    Original Score has the potential to surprise and the three major precusors disagreed.
    Original Song is considered a lock, but I have a hunch that it isn’t and we could see a sentimental win.
    Sound Mixing is crazy.
    Sound Editing is competitive.
    Visual Effects is usually a lock, but not this year. It has two strong contenders.
    Make-up & Hair is probably done but some are predicting Guardians and Foxcatcher.
    Foreign Language Film is interesting and it has two strong favorites, with Wild Tales as a dark horse.
    Even Animated Feature is a case of a possible surprise.  

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    Sandrine Onaissi
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    #178580

    Well, I started to wonder If it Will be the Movie ranked 3rd that Will determine the winner.

    In the preferential I saw, those who pick GBH at #1 tend to reverse on Boyhood; while those who pick Whiplash #1 on Birdman. So maybe If Whiplash finishs #3 it’s for Birdman, and If GBH ends 3# it’s for Boyhood ?

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    Lion of Panjshir
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    #178581

    Let’s hope the night turns out some real out-of-the-seat surprises. 

    Whiplash for Best Pic would be grand. So would Cooper. A Boyhood shut-out resulting in the editor of Awards Daily close down the site out of disgust. Roger Deakins winning. Citizenfour getting beat. A non-Hollywood animated movie winning.  

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #178582

    Whiplash winning picture would be cool.
    Cooper winning would be a joke and a robbery. A mediocre actor in a bad propaganda film. And he got nominated instead of real actors delivering quality work (Spall, even Gyllenhaal).
    Boyhood winning zero would be a robbery. Arquette and film editing are the very least it should get and directing is a must.
    CitizenFour is such an important film and it should get its due.
    Deakins winning will be bittersweet. I’d love to see him win but this film is so bad and even his work feels inferior to his previous work.
    The Tale of Princess Kaguya taking animated would be grand. I actually predicted that. 

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    Troye
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    #178583

    Wouldn’t be surprised if Birdman only wins Cinematography. If it happened at BAFTA, why can’t it happen at the Oscars?

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    AviChristiaans
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    #178584

    Let’s not fall for these “i spoke to a few voters” angle again.

    The one thing i would so much like these guys to reveal is how many voters they actually talked to. And then have them compare that number to 6100 potential voters casting ballots.

    Anything less than 100+ voters is redundant really. Or 500 voters.

    You cannot gauge the way votes are going by relying on 5-10 voters.

    Come on.

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    GusCruz
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    #178585

    Let’s not fall for these “i spoke to a few voters” angle again.

    The one thing i would so much like these guys to reveal is how many voters they actually talked to. And then have them compare that number to 6100 potential voters casting ballots.

    Anything less than 100+ voters is redundant really. Or 500 voters.

    You cannot gauge the way votes are going by relying on 5-10 voters.

    Come on.

    Hammond and Thompson I know they talk to A LOT of voters. I agree that we need to take this with a grain of salt, but a lot of the upsets usually had a pundit saying they were hearing voters going in a certain direction. I predicted Crash, Cotillard, Arkin and others paying attention. With the preferential ballot it’s harder to see what’s coming for Best Picture, so people should stop being so certain about what’s going to win

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    GusCruz
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    #178586

    Wouldn’t be surprised if Birdman only wins Cinematography. If it happened at BAFTA, why can’t it happen at the Oscars?

    I’m don’t have Lubezki as a shoo-in for Cinematography. I remember the years of Children of Men and The Tree of Life and he was the frontrunner yet lost. I can see The Grand Budapest Hotel winning because it’s a much more colorful film. They love colors in PD, CD and Cinematography – TGBH could win all three plus Makeup

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    GusCruz
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    #178587

    Well, I started to wonder If it Will be the Movie ranked 3rd that Will determine the winner.

    In the preferential I saw, those who pick GBH at #1 tend to reverse on Boyhood; while those who pick Whiplash #1 on Birdman. So maybe If Whiplash finishs #3 it’s for Birdman, and If GBH ends 3# it’s for Boyhood ?

    There is no pattern, especially if you’re thinking folks in message boards are an indication of how the Academy might go.

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    Sandrine Onaissi
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    #178588

    [quote=”SandrineOnaissi”]Well, I started to wonder If it Will be the Movie ranked 3rd that Will determine the winner.

    In the preferential I saw, those who pick GBH at #1 tend to reverse on Boyhood; while those who pick Whiplash #1 on Birdman. So maybe If Whiplash finishs #3 it’s for Birdman, and If GBH ends 3# it’s for Boyhood ?

    There is no pattern, especially if you’re thinking folks in message boards are an indication of how the Academy might go.[/quote]Did you see the result of preferential ballots on AwardsDaily ?

    It’s There : http://ellipticcurvecreations.com/Results2014.html

    It’s pretty interesting because the result are ranked by genre, age, geography, etc. So sad we haven’t more voters from the olders, given that the average age of the Academy is 68

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    GusCruz
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    #178589

    [quote=”GustavoCruzESilva”][quote=”SandrineOnaissi”]Well, I started to wonder If it Will be the Movie ranked 3rd that Will determine the winner.

    In the preferential I saw, those who pick GBH at #1 tend to reverse on Boyhood; while those who pick Whiplash #1 on Birdman. So maybe If Whiplash finishs #3 it’s for Birdman, and If GBH ends 3# it’s for Boyhood ?

    There is no pattern, especially if you’re thinking folks in message boards are an indication of how the Academy might go.[/quote]Did you see the result of preferential ballots on AwardsDaily ?[/quote]

    That’s the internet. Those people are invested in other things than the Academy, believe me. But believe it as you wish

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    GusCruz
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    #178590

    I remember our own Tom O’Neil last year predicting Leo to win Actor because of the Goldderby Awards lol

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    Sandrine Onaissi
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    #178591

    [quote=”SandrineOnaissi”][quote=”GustavoCruzESilva”][quote=”SandrineOnaissi”]Well, I started to wonder If it Will be the Movie ranked 3rd that Will determine the winner.

    In the preferential I saw, those who pick GBH at #1 tend to reverse on Boyhood; while those who pick Whiplash #1 on Birdman. So maybe If Whiplash finishs #3 it’s for Birdman, and If GBH ends 3# it’s for Boyhood ?

    There is no pattern, especially if you’re thinking folks in message boards are an indication of how the Academy might go.[/quote]Did you see the result of preferential ballots on AwardsDaily ?[/quote]

    That’s the internet. Those people are invested in other things than the Academy, believe me. But believe it as you wish[/quote]Of course I take them with precaution but There are still interesting because all is categorized. We can see, for exemple, that GBH is #3 in Many category but it’s Whiplash that triomphs in those who are “close to the Academy”

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    Sandrine Onaissi
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    #178592

    Look, this is interesting :

    [IMG]http://img11.hostingpics.net/thumbs/mini_654207image298.jpg[/IMG]

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