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January 13, 2018 at 1:15 pm #1202466502
I like Lady Bird quite a lot, but I would have rather seen her win for one of her first two nods. The nominations are good enough for now, especially considering the competition. She’s not in Amy Adams territory.
Adams doesn’t have win worthy nods. Ronan is win worthy for Brooklyn and Lady Bird.
I would have been cool with a win for Brooklyn. Other than that, nah. And Adams would have been a worthy winner for Junebug or The Fighter. And I wouldn’t have minded wins for Arrival or Enchanted, though of course she wasn’t nominated for either. Yes, someone like Jennifer Lawrence was gifted an Oscar at a young age for some BS. But it doesn’t mean every young actress who’s given a couple of good performances are suddenly “overdue”. 25 on to your third nod can never be overdue. If this were a weaker year, sure. I could support her. But Ms Ronan is cool staying seated for right now. The only potential issue is her eventually winning for absolute mediocre.January 13, 2018 at 1:20 pm #1202466504
Barely. She needs to take SAG (unlikely) or have Ronan take SAG (plausible), the latter of which would at least put the breaks on McDormand’s run. Then Hawkins could take BAFTA and enter Oscar night on the same level as McDormand and Ronan.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!January 13, 2018 at 4:16 pm #1202466608
Welcome to Gold Derby Magic47 Sally Hawkins needs to win SAG or BAFTA to have a chance. If that happens, the love people have for The Shape of Water could help if it gets multiple wins on Oscar night. (Ronan actually surprisingly lost to Robbie for Critics Choice in Best Actress in a Comedy. Robbie was great in I, Tonya and she produced the movie so the award was well earned. With one win each, Ronan and Robbie are still in the race.) Frances feels unstoppable at this point with the Gloden Globe and Critics Choice win. On the podcasts, people mention Frances doesn’t campaign so that may hurt her. However, I feel like that Globes speech was enough of a campaign to win. She doesn’t need to do anything else. That thunderous applause for Frances at the Globes ceremony was also a sign for what looks like a sweep this year.
How much has Sally Hawkins campaigned?January 13, 2018 at 4:24 pm #1202466611
I think Ronan will have to wait until next year, when she will hopefully sweep for her performance in Mary Queen of Scots. I’m guessing it will be well worth the wait.January 13, 2018 at 4:46 pm #1202466622
She never was. Like I’ve been saying since the start, she could be the shocking snub if Meryl still gets her accustomed spot.January 13, 2018 at 5:06 pm #1202466635
Sally is not giving up this race without a fighting chance.January 13, 2018 at 6:36 pm #1202466665
She never was. Like I’ve been saying since the start, she could be the shocking snub if Meryl still gets her accustomed spot.
Who never was?
The question of this thread is if Sally Hawkins was still in the best actress race and PJ was replying that “she never was.” If Hawkins gets snubbed then for sure none of the other cast members are getting in, and Nolan or even McDonagh will stand a better chance than ever at winning Directing.January 13, 2018 at 7:23 pm #1202466678
Bafta means shit. She’s out of the race unless she can pull of a miracle and win SAG, which is the only thing that matters now for the acting races.
I saw the film yesterday. It would be a very deserving win.January 13, 2018 at 7:53 pm #1202466688
@GabeGuarin Hi Gabe, sorry I missed your question earlier. As far as campaigning, Sally Hawkins attended festivals. I saw her on The Late Late Show with James Corden. She’s doing the usual things to promote the movie.
I think this year it won’t matter how much campaigning/PR anyone will do in terms of winning the Oscar. Frances has all the momentum right now. It’s been a wild year so we’ll just have to see how SAG goes.January 13, 2018 at 8:04 pm #1202466691
I’d agree. I still have Hawkins winning SAG at the moment.Riley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantJanuary 13, 2018 at 8:06 pm #1202466693
Hawkins is out. Even Critics’ Choice, which apparently loved The Shape of Water, went with McDormand. We know what SAG thinks about The Shape of Water.January 13, 2018 at 9:20 pm #1202466736
Critics Choice isn’t the industry. Nothing is a fact until it actually happens. Suppose Hawkins DOES win SAG? Just wait and see.
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