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Is this year's Best Actress race the hardest to predict in recent memory?

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  • Anonymous
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    #1202453061

    Different times. It didn’t happen in 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. It will never happen again.

    Meryl Streep is an anomaly. Anomaly that should have been forgotten. Disgusting hypocritical cunt.

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    Honey
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    When was the last time four out of five best actresses are in movies also nominated for best picture?

    2012.

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    eastwest
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    Not really when you factor in last year’s nominees. Just know that anything can happen and you’ll be a better predictor for it.

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    Joe Burns
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    Different times. It didn’t happen in 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. It will never happen again.

    Meryl Streep is an anomaly. Anomaly that should have been forgotten. Disgusting hypocritical cunt.

    Mmm, no. Just because it hasn”t happened that frequently(and no, Meryl does still count) doesn’t mean it will “never happen again”. It”s happened 11 times in the past, more then enough to think it could happen again. Plus anything”s possible.

    Furthermore, Jodie Foster and Hillary Swank are the only actresses who have won a second Best Actress Oscar with their film also winning Best Picture. So, 2 times with, 11 times without. If just going by statistics alone, it”s much more probable that an actress will win her second Best Actress Oscar without her film also winning Best Picture.

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    Pulp
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    SAG doesn’t like to repeatedly honor the same actor/actress

    They gave Alec Baldwin 7 in a row, so idk if this is very true.

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    rodman
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    Has there ever been a year where five best actress and five best picture nominees match 5/5? I am going with Michelle Willians as the fifth nominee along with All the Money in the World for Best pic over I Tonya as a best actress nominee.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by  rodman.
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    Joe Burns
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    #1202453149

    SAG doesn’t like to repeatedly honor the same actor/actress

    They gave Alec Baldwin 7 in a row, so idk if this is very true.

    Yeah, it was just a theory, but looking at their history, it doesn’t seem to be a valid one.

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    Joe Burns
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    Has there ever been a year where five best actress and five best picture nominees match 5/5? I am going with Michelle Willians as the fifth nominee along with All the Money in the World for Best pic over I Tonya as a best actress nominee.

    Probably not, but I can check. Maybe back in the early days when the Academy first had 10 BP nominations?

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    Andrew Carden
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    Yeah, this is probably the most chaotic Best Actress affair since 2002, when there was a point at which Kidman, Moore and Zellweger seemed poised for a three-way jump ball. (Of course, that ultimately evolved into a two-person match by Oscar night.)

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Gabe Guarin
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    I’m going with Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water for a couple of reasons:
    1. Her film will likely have the most Oscar nominations, just as it has the most Golden Globe nominations and most Critics Choice nominations
    2. Of the 5 predicted nominees, she’s the apple in a bag of oranges. You’ve got four popular, well-known actresses in 3 Billboards’ Frances McDormand, Lady Bird’s Saoirse Ronan, I, Tonya’s Margot Robbie and The Post’s Meryl Streep, all giving bombastic, showy performances, whilst Hawkins gives a quieter performance as a lonely mute. Voters may want to go for something different.
    3. Oscars for understated performances have become more common recently, with the likes of Bridge of Spies’ Mark Rylance, Manchester by the Sea’s Casey Affleck and Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali all defeating much flashier work.
    4. Voters may appreciate how challenging and daring the performance was.
    5. There may be backlash against 3 Billboards that could hurt McDormand, benefiting Hawkins, her strongest competition.
    6. The types of awards she’s won thus far: Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association, North Carolina Film Critics Association, Kansas City Film Critics Circle, Southeastern Film Critics Association, etc. It just seems that most of the critics awards are going her way. Yes, Critics awards don’t always equal Oscar. But it does mean we should take her seriously. On a related note, McDormand won the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Award, and of the past 14 recipients from 2002-2016, only four have repeated at the Oscars.

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    DameAudrey
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    #1202454610

    I’d be happy as long as Hawkins and McDormand lose the statuette. I found them two of the most disgusting characters ever. I think the underrated Kate Winslet gives the classiest piece of acting of the year. She would get my vote.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    I’d be happy as long as Hawkins and McDormand lose the statuette. I found them two of the most disgusting characters ever. I think the underrated Kate Winslet gives the classiest piece of acting of the year. She would get my vote.

    Boo for you, then.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    @GabeGuarin I can definitely see Hawkins winning. Like you said, Hawkins has won the most critics awards thus far. Also, Three Billlboards (and McDormand’s character) is very divisive. McDormand’s still the frontrunner in this race, but it could hurt her.

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    Philip
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    I’m so over this divisive bs with 3 Billboards. It’s the start of the frontrunner backlash.

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    DameAudrey
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    I’d be happy as long as Hawkins and McDormand lose the statuette. I found them two of the most disgusting characters ever. I think the underrated Kate Winslet gives the classiest piece of acting of the year. She would get my vote.

    Boo for you, then.

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