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Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Could overdue narrative win him the Oscar?

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  • Marcel
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    No it doesn’t really. Unless you’re Close who didn’t deserve to win or if you will wasn’t undeniable and that was enough for an industry that doesn’t like her to deny her, you’re perfectly fine if you sweep and establish your undeniability.

    In the last 10 years only one actor managed to win Best Actor without the movie being nominated for Best Picture. It’s statistics.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by  Marcel.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by  Marcel.
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    AWDubay
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    I think he has a chance , but he is generlly unlikable and in the past has been unwilling to play the game , and if he doesnt change this time around i dont see him winning for anything ..

    Andrewsart.etsy.com

    Check out my online store 🙂

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    Dennis El Mar
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    I think he has a chance , but he is generlly unlikable and in the past has been unwilling to play the game , and if he doesnt change this time around i dont see him winning for anything ..

    I think him being unlikable is a possible hindrance, but at the end of the day, voters vote for what they want even if it sometimes doesn’t make sense. Olivia Colman and Mark Rylance (albeit both are more “likable” in the traditional sense as opposed to Phoenix) didn’t campaign, and staged fairly big upsets over better known figures in Hollywood who did campaign. Timothée Chalamet campaigned his ass off for a performance that was deserving of a nomination in an incredibly weak category but still missed a nomination because the voters cared more about checking performances off from big films as opposed to the performance itself. At the end of the day, if Joker is really what voters want to vote for, there’s a precedent for him because campaigns don’t always make or break a win.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    Atypical
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    No it doesn’t really. Unless you’re Close who didn’t deserve to win or if you will wasn’t undeniable and that was enough for an industry that doesn’t like her to deny her, you’re perfectly fine if you sweep and establish your undeniability.

    You’re no more of a fortune-teller than I am. If Close, who should have won the Oscar, had been in a more seen BP nominee, I think she would have won. We won’t know if Phoenix sweeps for many months. If the role is divisive, he won’t. I never said he couldn’t overcome obstacles with critics or whatever. He’s just not undeniable yet. He needs to be in a BP nominee. My opinion stands. Next.

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    Marcel
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    Oh please. We go through this every year. Phoenix is winning. It’s the kind of Oscar win that is set up well in advance. Like DiCaprio, Oldman, etc. You can see it coming a mile away. And it’s something Hollywood loves to do, and just cannot refuse. And he doesn’t need critics behind him, or critics awards behind him. Like Oldman, Malek, Redmayne, DiCaprio, etc. After he is handed his Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice on Saturday, everything will be set in motion. Fight it, don’t fight…. it’s happening. Get used to it. In terms of Joker’s Best Picture path? Of course it’s getting in. It’s going to be the highest grossing prestige film in the lineup. It’s gonna be that controversial film that the internet hates, but gets in anyway. Because of how big a film it is, and the people involved with it. It’s the film with the Best Actor winner. Just like Bohemian Rhapsody and Darkest Hour. We go through this every year.

     

    Since when is that a termometer for Oscars? The last time a Volpi Cup winner also won an Oscar was in 1936.

    Last year Willem Dafoe won the Volpi Cup, he got nominated at the Oscars but didn’t win Best Actor prize. Phoenix himself has a Volpi Cup for “The Master”, and he doesn’t have any Oscars.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    That’s not what I’m saying. At all. He’s not winning the Oscar because of the Volpi Cup win. That Venice win opens the door for him, and only solidifies it as a winning performance. Warner Bros submitted it In Competition at Venice for what, do you think? For the Golden Lion win? Of course it’s for Phoenix’s campaign. The same way Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and ROMA’s campaigns kicked off in Venice.

    They didn’t win the Oscar because of those Venice awards. But they went into the season with high profile hardware. That solidified them as contenders/frontrunners.

    The same way those Golden Globe acting wins opened the door for people like Malek, Oldman and Redmayne. The awards bodies followed suit afterwards. In the past few years, a Golden Globe win in general is enough to solidify you as a frontrunner. For SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice to follow suit. Because it’s the first televised awards.

    And you know full well Willem Dafoe was never winning an Oscar for that film. It had no support. But his high profile nominations at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes and that Volpi Cup win in Venice was enough hardware for people to watch that screener. The same with “The Master”. It was never a big contender.

    Which Joker surely will be. You don’t believe it will be, like you all didn’t believe Bohemian Rhapsody was gonna be.

    But it will be.

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    James Breheney
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    <p style=”text-align: center;”> </p> Here is Malek’s scorecard– in reality he had very few critics’ awards. Malek wasn’t acclaimed, he was simply the better part of the movie that otherwise got very mixed reviews yet was a huge crowd pleaser and made a lot of cash. Critics were showering their awards on Ethan Hawke instead of Malek, so if they are so powerful as you claim it’s strange they couldn’t make Hawke happen since Hawke was the most beloved actor by critics yet he wasn’t even nominated for Oscar for this performance. Also people were hugely surprised that Malek won GG, I remember predictions on GD, and he wasn’t predicted to win it. As for Close- critics brought her down? Lol, Close was brought down by her fellow acting peers and industry people when they gave BAFTA to another actress and that was the end, basically.

    Agree with this. Some Derbyites bestow too much importance on the critics. They have very limited power when it comes to the Oscars especially nowadays. The tastes of critics are generally too artsy for the Academy and the tastes of average movie-goers are generally too mainstream for the Academy. The tastes of the Academy fall somewhere in between. This is why we see critical darlings get snubbed fairly often like Ethan Hawke last season and Toni Collette the season before. The Golden Globes are the most important and powerful precursor to the Oscars. They set in motion the rest of the awards season and often inspire rubber stamping of their winners.

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    Dorsey
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    Since when is that a termometer for Oscars? The last time a Volpi Cup winner also won an Oscar was in 1936.

    Last year Willem Dafoe won the Volpi Cup, he got nominated at the Oscars but didn’t win Best Actor prize. Phoenix himself has a Volpi Cup for “The Master”, and he doesn’t have any Oscars.

    ?? The last time a Volpi Cup winner won an Oscar was literally this year. Have we forgotten Saint Olivia already?

    brb stanning Adam Driver

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    Stegeo
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    Phoenix is winning because he’s winning the Globe and no matter who wins comedy, Phoenix will have the undeniable performance so he’ll fully sweep.

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    Marcel
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    ?? The last time a Volpi Cup winner won an Oscar was literally this year. Have we forgotten Saint Olivia already?

    Lol story is different for Best Actor

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volpi_Cup_for_Best_Actor#Award_winners

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    Dana S.
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    I keep seeing here that Phoenix is unlikable and that is a problem for him winning, but what does it actually mean?

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    Eddy Q
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    Lol story is different for Best Actor

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volpi_Cup_for_Best_Actor#Award_winners

    But why should it be? It’s probably just coincidence that Volpi Cup winners for Best Actress have been more successful at the Oscars than those for Best Actor.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    I keep seeing here that Phoenix is unlikable and that is a problem for him winning, but what does it actually mean?

    Someone else can probably give more details than me, but Phoenix is known for his often rude and off putting behavior. The most infamous example was when he claimed that he was quitting acting to become a rapper. During this period he appeared on David Letterman in what’s widely regarded as one of the strangest and most uncomfortable interviews of Letterman’s career. Phoenix later revealed that he was faking his retirement and behavior for a mockumentary called I’m Still Here, which I have not seen, but according to its Wikipedia page, contains scenes of Phoenix doing cocaine, ordering prostitutes, and getting shit on while sleeping. Needless to say, his behavior (which went on for over a year) rubbed many the wrong way. Phoenix is also known to not campaign for awards, at one point calling the Oscars bullshit during the awards season when The Master was in contention (he later retracted this statement). So basically, what I’m getting at is that while his performances are critically acclaimed, many people dislike Phoenix as a person. While the awards should be based on the quality of the contender’s work, personal feelings can get in the way, and it’s been said that Phoenix’s behavior has hurt his chances in the past.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by  thatnerdgreg.
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    Dorsey
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    Lol story is different for Best Actor

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volpi_Cup_for_Best_Actor#Award_winners

    And the male winner was still nominated, even though NOBODY saw the movie.

    brb stanning Adam Driver

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    Marcel
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    That’s not what I’m saying. At all. He’s not winning the Oscar because of the Volpi Cup win. That Venice win opens the door for him, and only solidifies it as a winning performance. Warner Bros submitted it In Competition at Venice for what, do you think? For the Golden Lion win? Of course it’s for Phoenix’s campaign. The same way Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and ROMA’s campaigns kicked off in Venice. They didn’t win the Oscar because of those Venice awards. But they went into the season with high profile hardware. That solidified them as contenders/frontrunners. The same way those Golden Globe acting wins opened the door for people like Malek, Oldman and Redmayne. The awards bodies followed suit afterwards. In the past few years, a Golden Globe win in general is enough to solidify you as a frontrunner. For SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice to follow suit. Because it’s the first televised awards. And you know full well Willem Dafoe was never winning an Oscar for that film. It had no support. But his high profile nominations at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes and that Volpi Cup win in Venice was enough hardware for people to watch that screener. The same with “The Master”. It was never a big contender. Which Joker surely will be. You don’t believe it will be, like you all didn’t believe Bohemian Rhapsody was gonna be. But it will be.

     

    So, what were you saying again?

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