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Let's make way too early bets on what films will flop at Oscars

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  • JackO
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    It seems like one that people are currently divided on, but I’ve seen several people predicting it in above the line categories such as Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, so I think it’s fair to mention it.

    I guess. The last Dune flopped completely so just not sure why a new one would see a lot of success at oscar. Maybe it gets some below the line love but not sure how it could break in above the line.

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    LLLhawks
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    Sadly, Tenet. Maybe that Adams movie where she has a phobia of being outside. Watch the slate be mostly realistic drama again.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Is this Oscar night itself like The Irishman or the early hopefuls that are DOA like Cats?

    Cats was always a possibility until it wasn’t. Given the history of major screen-to-stage adaptations ever since Chicago. Even after the first trailer dropped it always assumed that the Globes would go apeshit for it.

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    fefface
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    It seems like one that people are currently divided on, but I’ve seen several people predicting it in above the line categories such as Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, so I think it’s fair to mention it.

    It has a solid lead pairing in Pattinson and JDW so it’s not impossible for it to get acting noms, but neither of them got nominated for much more Oscar-friendly movies in the last couple of years so I can’t see this being the one to get them the nod.

    I think a lot of the predictions are using the awards performance of Inception as a benchmark, and a lot of people (not just here, generally) think Nolan is overdue a big Directing win.

    It has a July release date so will have to do stick in the mind well enough to be remembered. I think WB are more concerned with getting it a good box office (budget 200m+) than awards.

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    Nikhil
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    Love Fincher but Mank is a horrible title for a film. Hoping that changes as it gets closer.

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    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    loudtoilet
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    It seems like one that people are currently divided on, but I’ve seen several people predicting it in above the line categories such as Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, so I think it’s fair to mention it.

    Supporting Actor is gonna flop if expectation is that Oscar Isaac is nominated, a mistake I saw some making in Early Predictions. if anyone gets nominated in Supporting Actor, it’s gonna be Stellan for his role is an iconic showly villain. Maybe Bardem but that’s about it. Isaac’s character is a straight man surrounded by show-stealing colorful characters (played by Brolin and Momoa respectively).

    IMO, the baitiest role if any can be classified as such is Ferguson’s. She could be easily frauded into supporting cause, while having a lot of screen time, the character does exist to support Chalamet’s.

    So I’d say for above the line it’s Picture, Director, Adapted, maybe Supporting Actress (Ferguson), maybe Supporting Actor (Skarsgaard). The year should be really weak in Actor or Chalamet’s character seriously re-written for such cipher to get a nom.

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    Matthew anzalone
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    Dune, The last duel (outside of comer for supporting actress), Annette

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    loudtoilet
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    Dune, The last duel (outside of comer for supporting actress), Annette

    Agreed about Last Duel. weird topic for Disney (rape in medieval ages, wtf?), medieval genre hasn’t produced a hit since LOTR (and that had wizards and Elves so not the same thing), Scott is hit and miss, damon looks like Simple Jack on the first released photo from the set.

    Agreed about Annette. Too out there. Best it could hope is become critics darling but the concept doesn’t sound like something AMPAS would touch with a pole.

    Disagree about Dune. I know that some people think it’ll flop at the boxoffice like Blade Runner 2049 but it has much better release date (Christmas) and no direct competition. It’s the only spectacular movie of the holiday season atm unless schedule drastically changes.

    I think people overestimate West Side Story and that Vietnam war movie by Spike Lee. Who cares about Vietnam War now that there are zeitgeisty modern wars?

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    fefface
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    Agreed about Last Duel. weird topic for Disney (rape in medieval ages, wtf?), medieval genre hasn’t produced a hit since LOTR (and that had wizards and Elves so not the same thing), Scott is hit and miss, damon looks like Simple Jack on the first released photo from the set. Agreed about Annette. Too out there. Best it could hope is become critics darling but the concept doesn’t sound like something AMPAS would touch with a pole. Disagree about Dune. I know that some people think it’ll flop at the boxoffice like Blade Runner 2049 but it has much better release date (Christmas) and no direct competition. It’s the only spectacular movie of the holiday season atm unless schedule drastically changes. I think people overestimate West Side Story and that Vietnam war movie by Spike Lee. Who cares about Vietnam War now that there are zeitgeisty modern wars?

    The only thing that will guarantee that Dune won’t flop is it being a good movie. We have no idea yet if that is the case – it could be completely incoherent.

    Saw that pap photo of Matt Damon yesterday. Definitely looks like it’ll have more of a ‘Pillars of the Earth’ look than ‘A Knight’s Tale’ that’s for sure. It’s chances probably depend on how it handles the source material.

    Annette may be a bit ‘out there’ but it has a pair of highly-regarded leads and could get in for screenplay/score/song etc as well. Interested to see how Cotillard does with the singing as she lip-synced for La vie en Rose but is seemingly doing all her own vocals for this one.

    I think Hillbilly Elegy has a chance at being shut out. Just a feeling that it might not be as good as we all think it will.

    Tenet will struggle with its early release date – expect it to be marketed as a straight up summer blockbuster and only show up in effects/sound categories.

    Also not sure if In the Heights is getting in for much – it’s being released early and could be overshadowed by West Side Story.

     

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    CateNicole
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    Agreed about Last Duel. weird topic for Disney (rape in medieval ages, wtf?), medieval genre hasn’t produced a hit since LOTR (and that had wizards and Elves so not the same thing), Scott is hit and miss, damon looks like Simple Jack on the first released photo from the set. Agreed about Annette. Too out there. Best it could hope is become critics darling but the concept doesn’t sound like something AMPAS would touch with a pole. Disagree about Dune. I know that some people think it’ll flop at the boxoffice like Blade Runner 2049 but it has much better release date (Christmas) and no direct competition. It’s the only spectacular movie of the holiday season atm unless schedule drastically changes. I think people overestimate West Side Story and that Vietnam war movie by Spike Lee. Who cares about Vietnam War now that there are zeitgeisty modern wars?

    Read the description of Da 5 Bloods on Wikipedia. Super interesting uncharted territory. Probably going to examine themes of regret in regards to the Vietnam War, and also what it means to be black and fighting for the United States, a country that doesn’t fight for you in many ways. Just my guess. Would love to see these ideas discussed.

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    loudtoilet
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    Agreed about Hillbilly Elegy. Sounds like the most typical bait ever. Drama. Alcocholism. Actressing. Pass.

    I think that Tenet is only an Oscar nominee in above the line categories from Nolan fans POV. I don’t think that Nolan or the studio view it as an awards vehicle. I’d love it to surprise and is that good and accessible to AMPAS but intention is clearly to create a summer blockbuster first.

    OK, found the test screening report for Da 5 Bloods. They loved it. Doesn’t mean much but I’ll concede I jumped to a conclusion.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    It has a solid lead pairing in Pattinson and JDW so it’s not impossible for it to get acting noms, but neither of them got nominated for much more Oscar-friendly movies in the last couple of years so I can’t see this being the one to get them the nod. I think a lot of the predictions are using the awards performance of Inception as a benchmark, and a lot of people (not just here, generally) think Nolan is overdue a big Directing win. It has a July release date so will have to do stick in the mind well enough to be remembered. I think WB are more concerned with getting it a good box office (budget 200m+) than awards.

    I was talking about Dune, not Tenet.

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    Salsa Club
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    Sadly, Tenet. Maybe that Adams movie where she has a phobia of being outside. Watch the slate be mostly realistic drama again.

    I still am not over The Woman in the Window getting moved to May 2020… Damy could have swept this past season if the film was good but alas

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    loudtoilet
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    Since both Tenet and Dune are WB movies, it’s going to be interesting which one gets the awards push. though December release marks Dune as likelier Oscar pony. That said, if Tenet is an ultra hit with critics and too big boxoffice-wise to ignore, all bets are off. I don’t know if one studio could put 2 sci fi movies in the Picture/Director/Other race. Fingers crossed for that.

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    CateNicole
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    I still am not over The Woman in the Window getting moved to May 2020… Damy could have swept the season if the film was good but alas

    Apparently it’s bad. Reshoots galore. I forget whose interview I read…the director’s???…someone said it just wasn’t working the way they had hoped.

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