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Let's make way too early bets on what films will flop at Oscars

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  • thatnerdgreg
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    Yeah but no. I don’t think it’ll be a player. Every year has many movies about race so it’s getting harder to stand out.And Spielberg is white, cue Film twitter screeching about that only non-white director should handle race relations topic ot something. wasn’t Bieglow crucified for making a race movie few years ago?

    The story is split between white people and Puerto Rican people, so the idea of a white man not being allowed to direct is absolutely ridiculous. I’m fairly certain every Broadway iteration and the film have been directed solely by white men, and nobody complained about that (although the current revival has lots of other complaints).

    Ah yes of course! Given that you seem to know quite a lot on the subject I’m wondering if you think it being a remake will hurt it’s chances at all? What do you think about the chances of the other musicals we have coming out this year? It seems to be a particularly stacked year for the genre.

    I’m not really an expert, but my line of thinking is the film being a remake won’t help it, but it won’t hurt it that badly. In the last two years we’ve seen both Little Women and A Star is Born get into Best Picture for their fourth big screen iterations. A Star is Born is somewhat of a different case since those films aren’t the same story and characters,  rather they’re just very similar. But Little Women shows that the Academy is willing to reward more at sight remakes, and much like Little Women, West Side Story isn’t exactly remaking the previous film(s) of this story, but instead the original story. The original film being a classic that won Best Picture could hurt its chances, but as beloved as the original film is, it can be seen as a bit dated in some respects, with two elements of it really sticking out.

    The first being the huge amount of dubbing. Richard Beymer and Natalie Wood’s singing was completely dubbed, Russ Tamblyn was dubbed for Jet Song (by Tucker Smith who played Ice), and Rita Moreno was dubbed for A Boy Like That. The only principle actor who didn’t have their singing dubbed was George Chakiris, likely because Bernardo doesn’t have many solos. Since it’s very rare for current movie musicals to dub actors and this cast is made of Broadway actors (Ariana DeBose and Mike Faist who are playing Anita and Riff are Tony nominees, and David Alvarez whose playing Bernardo won a Tony when he was a teenager) or actors who at least have musical backgrounds like Ansel Elgort and Rachel Zegler. The other, much more problematic one is how they cast white actors as the Puerto Ricans and made them up to look darker. They even did it to Rita Moreno, despite the fact that she was the right ethnicity for her role. Having actual Latinos portraying these parts is in undeniable improvement over the original film.

    As for the other musicals, the biggest question mark is Annette. It’s not based on a stage version so we currently don’t know much about it. I could see it either doing well or flopping, as it seems like an unusual premise that the Academy might not go for. In the Heights has potential, but I feel like it’ll get overshadowed by West Side Story, another musical about Latinos, and one that’s much more well known and critically regarded, and not to mention it has a far more awards friendly release date. I don’t see the Academy nominating two Latino centered musicals in the same year, so I only think In the Heights will be a big contender if it’s seen as fantastic and if West Side Story disappoints. However, I’m pretty sure whatever song Lin Manuel Miranda writes for it will be a contender, and it could end up winning. I’ve said before that The Prom will be a non factor outside of the Globes. It’s widely seen as being very average, and Netflix will undoubtedly have bigger films to push. I think Streep will be nominated at the Globes, and maybe the film, Corden, and the actress playing the leading girl Emma (it’ll need to be pretty open for her to make it alongside Streep though) could join her if the categories are open and they’re well received. As for the Oscars, the only nomination I could see it getting would be Streep, but only if they pushed her down into supporting, which they might try.

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    LLLhawks
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    Man, I’m gonna allow myself to get my hopes up for Respect, but part of me screams that it will suck. I hope that part is wrong.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Maybe Respect will end up being like Harriet, where the lead performance is the only thing that maintains consistent buzz. And it leads to an Oscar nomination.

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    fefface
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    I’m not really an expert, but my line of thinking is the film being a remake won’t help it, but it won’t hurt it that badly. In the last two years we’ve seen both Little Women and A Star is Born get into Best Picture for their fourth big screen iterations. A Star is Born is somewhat of a different case since those films aren’t the same story and characters, rather they’re just very similar. But Little Women shows that the Academy is willing to reward more at sight remakes, and much like Little Women, West Side Story isn’t exactly remaking the previous film(s) of this story, but instead the original story. The original film being a classic that won Best Picture could hurt its chances, but as beloved as the original film is, it can be seen as a bit dated in some respects, with two elements of it really sticking out. The first being the huge amount of dubbing. Richard Beymer and Natalie Wood’s singing was completely dubbed, Russ Tamblyn was dubbed for Jet Song (by Tucker Smith who played Ice), and Rita Moreno was dubbed for A Boy Like That. The only principle actor who didn’t have their singing dubbed was George Chakiris, likely because Bernardo doesn’t have many solos. Since it’s very rare for current movie musicals to dub actors and this cast is made of Broadway actors (Ariana DeBose and Mike Faist who are playing Anita and Riff are Tony nominees, and David Alvarez whose playing Bernardo won a Tony when he was a teenager) or actors who at least have musical backgrounds like Ansel Elgort and Rachel Zegler. The other, much more problematic one is how they cast white actors as the Puerto Ricans and made them up to look darker. They even did it to Rita Moreno, despite the fact that she was the right ethnicity for her role. Having actual Latinos portraying these parts is in undeniable improvement over the original film.

    This is a really interesting insight, thanks! It definitely sounds on paper like it should do well, and that a lot of care is being taken to get it right. Intrigued by Rachel Zegler as Maria, given this is her first-ever professional acting credit. She has a great voice though, for sure.

    As for the other musicals, the biggest question mark is Annette. It’s not based on a stage version so we currently don’t know much about it. I could see it either doing well or flopping, as it seems like an unusual premise that the Academy might not go for.

    I don’t think it’s going to be any kind of box office smash – it’s still Carax – but could be well-received even if it’s bonkers, as Holy Motors was (though that movie proved too inaccessible for major awards). It’s the only sung-through musical we’re getting this year so that may have an impact for good or bad.

    In the Heights has potential, but I feel like it’ll get overshadowed by West Side Story, another musical about Latinos, and one that’s much more well known and critically regarded, and not to mention it has a far more awards friendly release date. I don’t see the Academy nominating two Latino centered musicals in the same year, so I only think In the Heights will be a big contender if it’s seen as fantastic and if West Side Story disappoints. However, I’m pretty sure whatever song Lin Manuel Miranda writes for it will be a contender, and it could end up winning.

    Lin Manuel Miranda definitely has a shot at that PEGOT but I admit I’d never heard of In the Heights until recently. Definitely agree it could be overshadowed by WSS given their similarities and their August vs December release dates.

    I’ve said before that The Prom will be a non factor outside of the Globes. It’s widely seen as being very average, and Netflix will undoubtedly have bigger films to push. I think Streep will be nominated at the Globes, and maybe the film, Corden, and the actress playing the leading girl Emma (it’ll need to be pretty open for her to make it alongside Streep though) could join her if the categories are open and they’re well received. As for the Oscars, the only nomination I could see it getting would be Streep, but only if they pushed her down into supporting, which they might try.

    Yeah I’m afraid I have no interest in this one whatsoever. It does have a solid cast but Ryan Murphy is super hit and miss and the premise reads a little cheesy.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  fefface.
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    thatnerdgreg
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    Maybe Respect will end up being like Harriet, where the lead performance is the only thing that maintains consistent buzz. And it leads to an Oscar nomination.

    I wouldn’t say Erivo had consistent buzz. She was seen as a frontrunner early on, then her film got very “meh” notices with her’s not being anything special which caused her to go down and not be very seriously considered until she hit the Globes and SAG.

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    loudtoilet
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    The story is split between white people and Puerto Rican people, so the idea of a white man not being allowed to direct is absolutely ridiculous. I’m fairly certain every Broadway iteration and the film have been directed solely by white men, and nobody complained about that (although the current revival has lots of other complaints).

    yes,we agree about that yet you know Film Twitter (and associated supportive media such as NYT). That’s my point. Someone is always going to create controversy out of nothing especially if a movie in question threatens their favorite. It’s far less about advocacy and much more about smearing the competition with anything they could find.

     

     

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  loudtoilet.
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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I wouldn’t say Erivo had consistent buzz. She was seen as a frontrunner early on, then her film got very “meh” notices with her’s not being anything special which caused her to go down and not be very seriously considered until she hit the Globes and SAG.

    All the same though

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    loudtoilet
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    Re: musicals. I don’t think that both In the Heights and West Side Story will get in. Just one of them. I don’t think Annette is AMPAS thing at all. It’s too experimental with weird concept that could go either way. If it fails it’ll be an interesting failure, it it succeeds it won’t suceed with traditional awards bodies.

    Re: sci fi. I don’t think WB will get both Dune and Tenet in the Picture/Director line-up. I can see Tenet making Original and Dune Adapted.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  loudtoilet.
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    Marcus.H
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    I smell flop from upcoming West Side Story remake.

    Kubrick-Coen-Tarantino-Hitchcock-Lynch-Fellini-BillyWilde-WesAnderson
    "One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest(1975)"[All Time Fav]

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    fefface
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    I don’t think Annette is AMPAS thing at all. It’s too experimental with weird concept that could go either way. If it fails it’ll be an interesting failure, it it succeeds it won’t suceed with traditional awards bodies.

    Have you seen it? How do you know it’s too experimental? Yes it’s Leos Carax but we know literally nothing about it.

    It has a powerhouse pair of leads and music by a well known band. And it has the distinction of being the only original work of all the musicals we’re getting this year which may serve it well.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  fefface.
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    loudtoilet
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    Have you seen it? How do you know it’s too experimental? Yes it’s Leos Carax but we know literally nothing about it. It has a powerhouse pair of leads and music by a well known band. And it has the distinction of being the only original work of all the musicals we’re getting this year which may serve it well.

    Like I said, it isn’t about whether the movie’s good but whetehr it’s an AMPAS thing. No I haven’t seen it but I read the synopsis and it stikes me as too out there for them. if they go for a musical, it’s more likely going to be a traditional one like the two Latino-themed coming out this year.

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    fefface
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    Like I said, it isn’t about whether the movie’s good but whetehr it’s an AMPAS thing. No I haven’t seen it but I read the synopsis and it stikes me as too out there for them. if they go for a musical, it’s more likely going to be a traditional one like the two Latino-themed coming out this year.

    The synopsis is ‘married couple discover their daughter has a unique gift’. Unless you’ve seen something I haven’t.

    I just think it’s too early to be calling anything ‘too weird’ when we know so little. I agree that it’s unlikely to get as many noms as a West Side Story, but I think it’s got a shot at screenplay, score, song, perhaps acting. Cannes will probably tell us – Carax always premieres there.

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    loudtoilet
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    I want it to succeed because success of the original movies should always be celebrated. I’ll remain cautious but fingers crossed.

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    jonny
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    Tenet
    Will only get a few nominations in tech awards, will flop elsewhere

    West Side Story
    Will be a huge flop

    Mank
    Will be next years The Irishman and leave with nothing

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    Tooner
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    Ammonite just feels like it would flop

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