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Lets talk Best Picture: Who wins it?

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202496517

    To recap this awards season:

    THREE BILLBOARDS won the BAFTA, Globe (drama), and SAG.

    THE SHAPE OF WATER won the DGA, PGA, and Critics Choice.

    LADY BIRD won the Globe (Comedy/Musical).

    CALL ME BY YOUR NAME and GET OUT won the WGA.

    STATS

    Since 1990, 24 out of 27 films have won Best Picture with nominations for director, screenplay, and editing. BIRDMAN (no editing), ARGO (no directing), and TITANIC (no screenplay) are the exceptions.

    BRAVEHEART was the last time a film won Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nomination. DRIVING MISS DAISY was the last time a film won Best Picture without a DGA nomination.

    69% (52/75) of all Best Picture winners won the Globe for either Best Drama or Comedy/Musical.

    68% (19/29) of all PGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture.

    77% (53/69) of all DGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture.

    50% (11/22) of all SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to win Best Picture.

    Whose winning Best Picture? Please state your case. To me, it’s a BILLBOARD vs. WATER debate.

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    combate13
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    #1202496554

    The BP race at this point (in my opinion):

    1. 3BB

    2. TSOW

    3. Get Out

    4. CMBYN

    5. Ladybird

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  combate13.
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    GusCruz
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    #1202496636

    If you go by people here, they will tell you Three Billboards is a bigger lock than La La Land last year. Lol

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    kbfr12
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    #1202496637

    I have no idea. THREE BILLBOARDS maybe? It’s a tossup.

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    Noah Arlington
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    #1202496638

    Shape of Water. Won’t be surprised if 3 Billboards wins though.

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    Riley
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    #1202496645

    If you go by people here, they will tell you Three Billboards is a bigger lock than La La Land last year. Lol

    You lie.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Atypical
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    #1202496649

    “Get Out”

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    xrated48
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    #1202496650

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri- won the SAG ensemble the most important award to at least be nominated for it to be considered a best Picture winner. The only problem is the favorite and racism backlash. As Well as no Director nom.

    2. The Shape of Water- Won a lot of love from the industry when it came to awards. The only reason it might not win is because it shockingly didn’t get SAG Ensemble nomination.

    3. Get Out- Universally loved by critics and favorite to possibly winning best Original Screenplay. The biggest con is that it’s a horror film and most people think it’s overrated

    4. Lady Bird- My personal fav, was the early award season favorite. Hasn’t won anything other than the globes.

    5. Call Me By Your Name- Film that is the favorite to win Adapted Screenplay and being nominated or winning Screenplay is a good sign in winning best picture. Not winning many awards plus it’s not the best film of the nine nominations.

    6. Phantom Thread- 6 Nominations from the academy which was a pleasant surprise and it is Daniel Day Lewis last film. Hasn’t won anything important to indicate that it might win best picture

    7. Dunkirk- War epic that academy tends to love. Hasn’t won anything important like many of the films on this list and some people find it overrated like Get Out.

    8. The Post- A timely film especially under the Trump Presidency with four of the best all contributed to making this film (Streep, Hanks, Spielberg, Williams). Not Spielberg best film, however I am suprised it is not the favorite due to the political climate.

    9. Darkest Hour- Bio pic is Oscar bait as well as Best Picture bait sometimes. Worst of the 9 should have been replaced by I Tonya or The Big Sick.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1202496658

    Three Billboards mostly doing good in awards that are voted on by foreigners will give me a pause from predicting it. How I wish it had been eligible at WGA. There really is no reason why it couldn’t win at PGA though. TSoW wasn’t as big of a moneymaker as LLL and Gravity and wasn’t actually about money like The Big Short, so what gives.

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  Roney Moore.
    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  Roney Moore.
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    Riley
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    #1202496664

    PGA has called Best Director more often in recent years (La La LandBirdmanGravity) than it has called Best Picture (Birdman, 12 Years a Slave).  Plus there was that time that it called neither (The Big Short).

    Two years ago, The Revenant won BAFTA and the Globe, but lost PGA and Critics’ Choice, just like Three Billboards.  But The Revenant was snubbed for SAG Ensemble and was never nominated for its screenplay.  Three Billboards actually won SAG Ensemble and BAFTA/Globe Screenplay.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Aameson
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    #1202496668

    Since 1990, 24 out of 27 films have won Best Picture with nominations for director, screenplay, and editing. BIRDMAN (no editing), ARGO (no directing), and TITANIC (no screenplay) are the exceptions.

    Ok, so two of your three examples have taken place since the preferential ballot was reinstituted, yes? Statistically speaking thats a massive increase in “unpredictability,” no?

    I’m not into the stats thing but seeing as how so many of you are; I’m a little bemused few if any people on this forum seem to be factoring this into the equation this year.

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