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Lets Talk WGA and Scripter: Who wins?

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202489124

    Stats:

    – 2002 and 1984 are the ONLY years where neither WGA winner went on to win a screenplay Oscar.
    – Only 9/33 Oscar seasons has both WGA winners gone on to win Oscars for screenplay.
    – 7 straight Oscar seasons the Scripter winner went on to win a screenplay Oscar. Before that, it wasn’t a good predictor award.

    My prediction:

    Get Out wins the WGA, CMBYN wins the WGA and Scripter. Both films won the Critics Choice for best screenplay. Both films up for screenplay Oscars. Both films won the most critics circle awards for their respected sources.

    Spoilers:

    The Shape of Water (won the PGA and DGA) or Lady Bird for original.

    Mudbound or Molly’s Game for adapted.

    • This topic was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by  GMonty777.
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    GusCruz
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    #1202489160

    I think you’ve pretty much covered it all. I think Get Out wins WGA, but only because that’s where I see the Best Picture race going. Greta could easily win it too — the last time a woman won WGA was exactly ten years ago, with Diablo Cody/Juno, which is comparable to Lady Bird. The Shape of Water also has a female co-writer, but given this guild’s reluctance to vote for their awards as Best Picture stand-ins, I think it’s behind those two. For Adapted, I agree Mudbound is the spoiler, but also watch out for Aaron Sorkin. Ivory has basically no competition for the Scripter, though.

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202489171

    Get Out and Lady Bird are as original as an episode of Saturday Night Light…Seriously, Get Out has taken a lot of “inspiration” from The Invasion of the Body Snatchers and The Stepford Wives, just like Vanilla Ice from David Bowie/ Queen’s “Under Pressure” when he wrote his “Ice Ice Baby” and let’s no talk about the similarities between Lady Bird and Clueless.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202489189

    Get Out and Lady Bird are as original as an episode of Saturday Night Light…Seriously, Get Out has taken a lot of “inspiration” from The Invasion of the Body Snatchers and The Stepford Wives, just like Vanilla Ice from David Bowie/ Queen’s “Under Pressure” when he wrote his “Ice Ice Baby” and let’s no talk about the similarities between Lady Bird and Clueless.

    And The Shape of Water isn’t derivative?

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    AlexVieira
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    #1202489209

    LADY BIRD or GET OUT.

     

    CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, that’s for sure.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    #1202489229

    I am still not convinced that the Academy will reward CMBYN with anything. I do think CMBYN wins WGA and Scripter.

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202489271

    Get Out and Lady Bird are as original as an episode of Saturday Night Light…Seriously, Get Out has taken a lot of “inspiration” from The Invasion of the Body Snatchers and The Stepford Wives, just like Vanilla Ice from David Bowie/ Queen’s “Under Pressure” when he wrote his “Ice Ice Baby” and let’s no talk about the similarities between Lady Bird and Clueless.

    And The Shape of Water isn’t derivative?

    I went to see The Shape of Water with the predisposition of love it but as i watch the movie i found it to be not very smart, with the subtlety of a hammer, offensive and even racist against white people because of the way it portray them, this is as homophobes, racist, bullies, that doesn’t care for science (real science like in study an unknown species of live), etc.

    I can appreciate all the positive values that The Shape of Water possess like the cinematography, the score, the use of the camera, the production design, etc. but i have a huge problem with the screenplay and the politics that Guillermo Del Toro try to sell in the movie.

    Of all the nominees that i’ve seen so far my favorites are Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Call Me By Your Name and The Post in that order but if I were an Academy member I’d vote for The Post for Best Picture.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202489299

    I went to see The Shape of Water with the predisposition of love it but as i watch the movie i found it to be not very smart, with the subtlety of a hammer, offensive and even racist against white people because of the way it portray them, this is as homophobes, racist, bullies, that doesn’t care for science (real science like in study an unknown species of live), etc.

    I also dislike “Shape”, but this is, with all due respect, ridiculous. You don’t have to look further than the protagonist. Sally Hawkins isn’t white? Her best friends are literally a gay man and a black woman.

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202489311

    I went to see The Shape of Water with the predisposition of love it but as i watch the movie i found it to be not very smart, with the subtlety of a hammer, offensive and even racist against white people because of the way it portray them, this is as homophobes, racist, bullies, that doesn’t care for science (real science like in study an unknown species of live), etc.

    I also dislike “Shape”, but this is, with all due respect, ridiculous. You don’t have to look further than the protagonist. Sally Hawkins isn’t white? Her best friends are literally a gay man and a black woman.

    She is white but is presented as an outsider, something different. And now that we’re talking about it, is not casual that the “good guys” are a female, an gay man and an african american….talking about pandering.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202489322

    I suspect it’ll be Call Me by Your Name and Lady Bird at WGA, though I’m almost tempted to say The Shape of Water in Original.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    GusCruz
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    #1202489323

    She is white but is presented as an outsider, something different. And now that we’re talking about it, is not casual that the “good guys” are a female, an gay man and an african american….talking about pandering.

    You also forgot the fish. Well, congratulations: you’ve just realized that the movie is about Del Toro’s experience about not fitting in while growing up!

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202489333

    She is white but is presented as an outsider, something different. And now that we’re talking about it, is not casual that the “good guys” are a female, an gay man and an african american….talking about pandering.

    You also forgot the fish. Well, congratulations: you’ve just realized that the movie is about Del Toro’s experience about not fitting in while growing up!

    Of course, the fish from the black lagoom is from south america

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    Bee
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    #1202489396

    Get Out and Lady Bird are as original as an episode of Saturday Night Light…Seriously, Get Out has taken a lot of “inspiration” from The Invasion of the Body Snatchers and The Stepford Wives, just like Vanilla Ice from David Bowie/ Queen’s “Under Pressure” when he wrote his “Ice Ice Baby” and let’s no talk about the similarities between Lady Bird and Clueless.

    And The Shape of Water isn’t derivative?

    I went to see The Shape of Water with the predisposition of love it but as i watch the movie i found it to be not very smart, with the subtlety of a hammer, offensive and even racist against white people because of the way it portray them, this is as homophobes, racist, bullies, that doesn’t care for science (real science like in study an unknown species of live), etc. I can appreciate all the positive values that The Shape of Water possess like the cinematography, the score, the use of the camera, the production design, etc. but i have a huge problem with the screenplay and the politics that Guillermo Del Toro try to sell in the movie. Of all the nominees that i’ve seen so far my favorites are Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Call Me By Your Name and The Post in that order but if I were an Academy member I’d vote for The Post for Best Picture.

     

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    pulp50
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    #1202489407

    Politics could easily push Lady Bird to a wga win that would have otherwise gone to Get Out. I’m still leaning towards 3BB for the Oscars, and I’m really not sure why most people are acting like original screenplay is only between Lady Bird and Get Out.

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    Honey
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    #1202489430

    CMBYN and Get Out lead the critics win for Screenplay and Lady Bird (Gerwig) hasn’t been able to win a single televised award. Why bet against them? And the critic win difference between Get out and Lady Bird for screenplay isn’t even close and they started voting after the #metoo movement as well.

    Just cuz the Oscars have changed their voting body to be more inclusive doesn’t mean the guilds have.

    if 3b loses to any1 at BAFTA for screenplay that isn’t I, Tonya, that movie is most likely done for that category as well.

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