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My Best Picture Predicting Algorithm

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    GMonty777
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    #1204298804

    By all means, thoughts on the algorithm.

    Question 1 – Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or WGA award?
    Question 2 – Did the film win multiple major guild awards from the PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and ACE awards?
    *If only 1 film answers yes to both questions, then that film becomes the Best Picture prediction. Nomadland, Green Book, and The Shape of Water won it on the first two questions.

    Question 3 – Did the film win the PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble award?
    Question 4 – Did the film score PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble nominations?
    Question 5 – Did the film score acting, directing, writing, and editing Oscar nominations?

    Each question is worth 1 point a piece. If there’s a tie, then you move to the tiebreaker/sudden death round.

    Tiebreaker 1 – Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or SAG Ensemble award?
    Tiebreaker 2 – Which film scored the most major Oscar nominations? I am referring to picture, director, acting, writing, and editing.
    Tiebreaker 3 – Which film won the most major critics circle prizes? National Board of Review, National Society of Film Critics, Critics Choice, Chicago Film Critics, New York Film Critics, and LA Film Critics are the ones that count.

    Moonlight and Crash would have won it without going into overtime. Parasite edged out Jojo Rabbit in the first tiebreaker. Spotlight would have beaten out The Big Short in the 2nd OT. Million Dollar Baby would have beat out The Aviator on the third tiebreaker.

    The only inaccurate seasons would have been 1995 (Apollo 13) and 1997 (LA Confidential). However, all of the “preferential ballot years” checks off.

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    Stank83
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    #1204299159

    Jojo Rabbit was never the runner-up that year.

    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and 1917, (and yes even The Irishman) were way ahead of it in Picture.

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    Butz
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    #1204299181

    La La Land and 1917 would’ve won within the first two questions.

    Parasite won WGA, SAG and ACE.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    GMonty777
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    #1204299352

    La La Land and 1917 would’ve won within the first two questions.

    Incorrect. Lets review:

    2019 season – 1917 won the PGA and DGA. Parasite won the SAG, WGA, and ACE. Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and ACE.

    All three films answered yes to the first two questions. All three would “advance” to the other questions. Parasite and Jojo Rabbit would be a “yes” for question four — scored PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble nominations. Parasite won it on the first tiebreaker, because it won the SAG Ensemble.

    2016 season – La La Land won the PGA, DGA, SAG (Best Actress) and ACE. Moonlight won the WGA and SAG (Best Supporting Actor). Hidden Figures won the SAG Ensemble. Arrival won the WGA and ACE.

    LLL, Moonlight, and Arrival advanced to the other questions. They both answered “yes” to the first two questions. LLL answered “yes” to question five, but not question four. LLL did not receive a SAG Ensemble nomination. Moonlight answered “yes” to both questions four and five.

    Jojo Rabbit was never the runner-up that year.
    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and 1917, (and yes even The Irishman) were way ahead of it in Picture.

    We don’t know the official runner-up results, but consider the fact that Jojo, Parasite and Ford v. Ferrari were the only films to win major non-acting Oscars.

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