Home Forums Movies My Best Picture Prediction and Breakdown

My Best Picture Prediction and Breakdown

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
Created
7 months ago
Last Reply
7 months ago
10
replies
545
views
8
users
nevkm
2
Edgar Blake
2
GMonty777
1
  • GMonty777
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497303

    For this awards season, we had THREE BILLBOARDS winning the Globe, BAFTA, and SAG Ensemble. We had THE SHAPE OF WATER winning the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice. We had LADY BIRD winning the Globe for Best Comedy/Musical. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME and GET OUT won the WGA.

    It’s pretty safe to say that one of those five will take home Best Picture.

    CMBYN is pretty much a lock for adapted screenplay, but with only four nominations, no Best Director and Best Editing nominations, and lacking both the SAGE and DGA nominations, I find it very hard to believe it is going to win Best Picture.

    Next on the chopping blocks are both GET OUT and LADY BIRD. As much as people love both films, both films have major road blocks. For starters, neither of them were nominated at the BAFTAs. Neither one scored an editing nomination. GET OUT only has four nominations. LADY BIRD failed to win a single BAFTA or Guild award.

    That leaves us with just TSOW and 3BOEM. Both films have pretty much dominated the major awards circuit this season. But at the same time, both films have their major weaknesses: TSOW failed to score a SAGE nomination, 3BOEM failed to score a Best Director nomination. Both films have things which might hurt them in the preferential ballot system. TSOW might be too creepy for Academy voters, and 3BOEM might be too violent.

    Who wins? I am going to go against the Gold Derby crowd and say 3BOEM. The film will win because it’s both “grounded in reality” (fantasy is not always their cup of tea) and has a gigantic social message about anger, rage, and social injustice in our culture.

    I will fully admit, it’s a close call. Both films can easily win, but I am leaning SLIGHTLY toward 3BOEM.

    nevkm
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497305

    Three Billboards is taking home the big one. Angry and fed-up woman striking back against powerful men. Metoo *cough* Timesup *cough*.

    GMonty777
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497308

    Three Billboards is taking home the big one. Angry and fed-up woman striking back against powerful men. Metoo *cough* Timesup *cough*.

    You basically agree then. Good.

    Edgar Blake
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 11th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497321

    I think that “Three Billboards” is going to win Best Picture, its ONLY defect is director snub, but it is the frontrunner despite the director’s snub (Affleck broke this stat few years ago, but ok, that was a different year). “The Shape of Water” has PGA and Critics Choice, but I don’t think that DGA is a realistic precursor for Best Movie (expecially in this decade, Picture and Director were deverged 5 times). Del Toro will win Director (no doubt), but “The Shape of Water”, a fantasy movie with bland script (and recent plagiarism accusation) has no chance to win the top prize, expecially after BAFTA snub.

    My predictions:
    – “Three Billboards” will win Picture, Script (it need it), Actor and Actress
    – “The Shape of Water” will win Director, Score and Production Design
    – “Dunkirk” will win Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. “Baby Driver” has a lot of disadvantages: no BP/BD nods, no resonance, Kevin Spacey, ecc.
    – “Darkest Hour” will win Actor an Make-Up
    – “I, Tonya” will win Supporting Actress
    – “Call me by your name” will win Adapted Screenplay
    – “Phantom Thread” will win Costume Design
    – “Blade Runner” will win Cinematography (after the critics season, CC, ASC and BAFTA, he truly deserveded it)
    – “Apes” will win Visual Effects (because it won CC and VES, and the Oscar will be an award to Serkis and to the best visual effect team in the world after 2 snubs)
    – “Coco” will win Animated Movie and Song

    combate13
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 26th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497323

    At this point, the Best Picture race looks like this (in my opinion):

    1. 3 Billboards

    2. TSOW

    3. Get Out

    4. CMBYN

    5. Ladybird

    nevkm
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497325

    I think that “Three Billboards” is going to win Best Picture, its ONLY defect is director snub, but it is the frontrunner despite the director’s snub (Affleck broke this stat few years ago, but ok, that was a different year). “The Shape of Water” has PGA and Critics Choice, but I don’t think that DGA is a realistic precursor for Best Movie (expecially in this decade, Picture and Director were deverged 5 times). Del Toro will win Director (no doubt), but “The Shape of Water”, a fantasy movie with bland script (and recent plagiarism accusation) has no chance to win the top prize, expecially after BAFTA snub. My predictions: – “Three Billboards” will win Picture, Script (it need it), Actor and Actress – “The Shape of Water” will win Director, Score and Production Design – “Dunkirk” will win Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. “Baby Driver” has a lot of disadvantages: no BP/BD nods, no resonance, Kevin Spacey, ecc. – “Darkest Hour” will win Actor an Make-Up – “I, Tonya” will win Supporting Actress – “Call me by your name” will win Adapted Screenplay – “Phantom Thread” will win Costume Design – “Blade Runner” will win Cinematography (after the critics season, CC, ASC and BAFTA, he truly deserveded it) – “Apes” will win Visual Effects (because it won CC and VES, and the Oscar will be an award to Serkis and to the best visual effect team in the world after 2 snubs) – “Coco” will win Animated Movie and Song

    The Academy doesn’t care about Kevin Spacey, lol. Baby Driver will definitely win something: Film Editing or Sound Mixing. As for no BP/BD nominations Janney is winning Best Supporting Actress and I, Tonya does’t have either.  I mostly agree with the other predictions. Lady Bird, Get Out and The Post are going home with 0 Oscars.

    fivestar
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 12th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497331

    It really is down to a coin toss at this point between 3 Bills and Shape. Although I personally liked 3 Bills more than Shape, I still think Shape is taking Best Pic home for two reasons:

    1. Del Toro seems like he’s buddies with half the people voting for Best Pic and his crew has been campaigning twice as hard as Martin’s.

    2. Preferential ballot is heavily on Shape’s side cause the people voting – even if they didn’t like Shape enough to put it in 1st place – they will still give it 2nd cause there’s literally nothing to hate about that movie. I don’t see many voters putting 3 Bills in second place cause it’s an anger movie that you can’t simply just be OK with like you can with Shape, you either strongly like it or strongly hate it, so I don’t expect many 2nd places for 3 Bills. This is by the way exactly why La La Land lost last year.

    Although momentum is now on 3 Bills side, I still think preferential ballot is the key factor here and it’s sure as hell in favor of Shape.

    imsoaddicted
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 15th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497341

    I think that “Three Billboards” is going to win Best Picture, its ONLY defect is director snub, but it is the frontrunner despite the director’s snub (Affleck broke this stat few years ago, but ok, that was a different year). “The Shape of Water” has PGA and Critics Choice, but I don’t think that DGA is a realistic precursor for Best Movie (expecially in this decade, Picture and Director were deverged 5 times). Del Toro will win Director (no doubt), but “The Shape of Water”, a fantasy movie with bland script (and recent plagiarism accusation) has no chance to win the top prize, expecially after BAFTA snub. My predictions: – “Three Billboards” will win Picture, Script (it need it), Actor and Actress – “The Shape of Water” will win Director, Score and Production Design – “Dunkirk” will win Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. “Baby Driver” has a lot of disadvantages: no BP/BD nods, no resonance, Kevin Spacey, ecc. – “Darkest Hour” will win Actor an Make-Up – “I, Tonya” will win Supporting Actress – “Call me by your name” will win Adapted Screenplay – “Phantom Thread” will win Costume Design – “Blade Runner” will win Cinematography (after the critics season, CC, ASC and BAFTA, he truly deserveded it) – “Apes” will win Visual Effects (because it won CC and VES, and the Oscar will be an award to Serkis and to the best visual effect team in the world after 2 snubs) – “Coco” will win Animated Movie and Song

    The Academy doesn’t care about Kevin Spacey, lol. Baby Driver will definitely win something: Film Editing or Sound Mixing. As for no BP/BD nominations Janney is winning Best Supporting Actress and I, Tonya does’t have either. I mostly agree with the other predictions. Lady Bird, Get Out and The Post are going home with 0 Oscars.

    I really want Get Out to win Original Screenplay but Three Billboards needs it to win BP. It’s definitely not happening.

     

    Edgar Blake
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 11th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497342

    The Academy doesn’t care about Kevin Spacey, lol. Baby Driver will definitely win something: Film Editing or Sound Mixing. As for no BP/BD nominations Janney is winning Best Supporting Actress and I, Tonya does’t have either. I mostly agree with the other predictions. Lady Bird, Get Out and The Post are going home with 0 Oscars.

    I was joking! But I don’t think that “Baby Driver” have the same resonance and support that “Dunkirk” have, even if we don’t consider BP and BD nods. “Dunkirk” is an epic war movie, and the Academy loves this genre when it comes to award editing or sound. Think about Hacksaw, Hurt Locker, Private Ryan, Black Hawk, Mad Max, Argo. “Baby Driver” is a funny and brillant action comedy (and i loved it) but, come on, it’s not an Oscar Movie. It’s only chances are for mixing or film editing, but “Dunkirk” reamins the frontrunner for both the awards, because it have the right nods, the right names, the right movie genre, the right technique (jumps into the timeline, shots, bombs, ecc…). “Baby Driver” has a very interesting use of the music, but how many members will care about this aspect?

    And I don’t think that this is the same situazione of “I, Tonya”: Janney won a lot of awards during the critics season, and then she won GG, CC, SAG and BAFTA. She won everywhere. “Baby Driver” has only CC and BAFTA in his belt, it isn’t a clear frontrunner, it’s always a tie between it and “Dunkirk” (ACE+CC), but I think that the most Oscar-friendly “Dunkirk” will win all three awards.

    Mason Desantis
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 25th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497346

    Why do you guys insist on overestimating Dunkirk? It’s winning one or two tech awards and that’s all. I’ve been telling you the same thing since the beginning of the awards season.

    Keth
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202497348

    Interesting comments by all, but I thinks it’s “Three Billboards” for Picture and “The Shape of Water” for director. I don’t think the lack of “Three Billboards” in the director’s race makes much of an impact since it seems Del Toro is locked here.

    I’m confident enough that these are my Super Bets in the GD Oscar predictions contest. At this point it seems a given, but the unique preferential ballot might trip me up here.

    Honestly, I just not a fan of the preferential ballot (and I think only 5 films should be nominated for best picture). It’s like the electoral college in politics. I mean, the U.S. president is the only race decided by a very flawed electoral college, just like best picture is the only race decided by a preferential ballot, which also has its flaws. And as we have seen, the best candidate doesn’t always win.

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)

The topic ‘My Best Picture Prediction and Breakdown’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
ethanqd - Sep 19, 2018
Movies
Grigorakis - Sep 19, 2018
Movies
musicre... - Sep 19, 2018
Movies