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My Take on the Best Picture Race (Pre-BAFTA awards)

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202494632

    When the BAFTAs have their say, then I’ll be coming to a final decision. But for now, I will say it’s between THE SHAPE OF WATER and THREE BILLBOARDS.

    TSOW has three big things at its corner: Won PGA, won DGA, and the only best picture nominee, up for directing, writing, and editing.

    3BOEM has in its corners three gigantic wins at SAG (Actress, Supporting Actor, and Ensemble), and it was nominated at the DGA and PGA awards for best picture.

    Everybody else is pretty much a long shot. Unless the BAFTAs, say go all in for DUNKIRK or CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, I really don’t see anybody else winning.

    CMBYN won the WGA, but lacks both a director and editing nomination at the Oscars, AND failed to score DGA and SAGE nominations.

    GET OUT won the original WGA, but in a category without 3BNEM being eligible. Plus, it’s only up for 4 Oscars, missing an editing nomination, and failed to score a BAFTA Best Picture nomination.

    Who am I leaning toward? 3BNEM.

    The director miss and the SAGE miss cancel each other out.

    I like 3BOEM the best here because it’s probably winning screenplay, supporting actor, and actress. The screenplay is a better predictor of Best Picture nowadays, when things are tight. With TSOW, you really only see it winning director in the major/editing categories.

    If BAFTA goes for 3BOEM for picture and screenplay, my vote will definitely go toward that film for Best Picture and Original Screenplay. But if GET OUT wins the Original Screenplay, I am switching my vote to TSOW.

    Thoughts on my commentary above?

    • This topic was modified 8 months ago by  GMonty777.
    • This topic was modified 8 months ago by  GMonty777.
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    alaska789
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    #1202494647

    BAFTA is very likely indeed to give 3 Bills BP and BSP , plus BA and BSA ; however I suspect that SHAPE will still win on the night .. the reason being that 3 Bills must win BSP Oscar to win BP and I doubt it will as GET OUT seems destined to play spoiler by taking BSP and allowing SHAPE to win BP by default …that’s the way this race seems to be shaping up to me !

    This whole race now pivots and swings on what wins BSP ….SHAPE can win without it ..3 Bills must have it and GET OUT cannot realistically win BP even with it IMO

    The BSP Oscar is the Hinge of Fate

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  alaska789.
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    GMonty777
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    #1202494658

    BAFTA is very likely indeed to give 3 Bills BP and BSP , plus BA and BSA ; however I suspect that SHAPE will still win on the night .. the reason being that 3 Bills must win BSP Oscar to win BP and I doubt it will as GET OUT seems destined to play spoiler by taking BSP and allowing SHAPE to win BP by default …that’s the way this race seems to be shaping up to me !

    This whole race now pivots and swings on what wins BSP ….SHAPE can win without it ..3 Bills must have it and GET OUT cannot realistically win BP even with it IMO

    The BSP Oscar is the Hinge of Fate

    If 3 Billboards wins Original Screenplay over Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water, it’s winning Original Screenplay. I am sorry, but what exactly makes Get Out’s screenplay so dominate here?

    Get out won the critics choice and the WGA (without 3BNEM being eligible). 3BOEM has won screenplay awards at the Satellite and Globes. A win at the BAFTAs, would make it the favorite to win at the Oscars.

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  GMonty777.
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    CanadianFan
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    #1202494661

    Can someone explain to me the N in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri?

    I understand 3B. I can tolerate 3BB. 3BOEM is an eye-sore, but it makes sense. What is 3BNEM?

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    alaska789
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    #1202494664

    3 Billboards will be an easy winner at sundays BAFTAS , part of the reason is because it’s a smug European ”ode to Americana” , or worse, an ode to vigilantism that reinforces the worst, unfair stereotypes of Americans as country bumkins and racist rednecks , a la Dukes of Hazard ..

    It will always be more popular in places like Britain because it allows them to feel a smug superiority …..ironically , that’s one of the reasons it’s unlikely to win at Oscar …Americans find it much more divisive than Brits, and so they should !

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  alaska789.
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    combate13
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    #1202494668

    When the BAFTAs have their say, then I’ll be coming to a final decision. But for now, I will say it’s between THE SHAPE OF WATER and THREE BILLBOARDS. TSOW has three big things at its corner: Won PGA, won DGA, and the only best picture nominee, up for directing, writing, and editing. 3BNEM has in its corners three gigantic wins at SAG (Actress, Supporting Actor, and Ensemble), and it was nominated at the DGA and PGA awards for best picture. Everybody else is pretty much a long shot. Unless the BAFTAs, say go all in for DUNKIRK or CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, I really don’t see anybody else winning. CMBYN won the WGA, but lacks both a director and editing nomination at the Oscars, AND failed to score DGA and SAGE nominations. GET OUT won the original WGA, but in a category without 3BNEM being eligible. Plus, it’s only up for 4 Oscars, missing an editing nomination, and failed to score a BAFTA Best Picture nomination. Who am I leaning toward? 3BNEM. The director miss and the SAGE miss cancel each other out. I like 3BNEM the best here because it’s probably winning screenplay, supporting actor, and actress. The screenplay is a better predictor of Best Picture nowadays, when things are tight. With TSOW, you really only see it winning director in the major/editing categories. If BAFTA goes for 3BNEM for picture and screenplay, my vote will definitely go toward that film for Best Picture and Original Screenplay. But if GET OUT wins the Original Screenplay, I am switching my vote to TSOW. Thoughts on my commentary above?

    Lol It would be a miracle if BAFTA goes all in for CMBYN, and if that miracle happens I will be happy for the rest of my life

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by  combate13.
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    alaska789
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    #1202494670

    Just because 3 Bills wins BSP at BAFTA doesn’t mean it’s going to win it at OSCAR ….GET OUT isn’t nominated at BAFTA for BP or BD and so I wouldn’t expect it to win there , especially when 3 Bills is also very likely winning BA and BSA there

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    GMonty777
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    #1202494673

    Just because 3 Bills wins BSP at BAFTA doesn’t mean it’s going to win it at OSCAR ….GET OUT isn’t nominated at BAFTA for BP or BD and so I wouldn’t expect it to win there , especially when 3 Bills is also very likely winning BA and BSA there

    But why is Get Out’s screenplay so strong, and would overcome the BAFTA loss?

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