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NSFC Predictions & Updates

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    Atypical
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    #1204701422

    Awards are on Saturday! What are your final predictions?

    Last year’s major winners include:

    Picture: “Nomadland”
    Director: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
    Actor: Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods”
    Actress: Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
    Screenplay: Eliza Hittman, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
    Cinematography: Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
    Foreign Language Film: “Collective” (Romania)
    Non-Fiction Film: “Time”

    Discuss.

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    alittle03
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    #1204701476

    So, knowing how much some members of NSFC loved Drive My Car and The Power of the Dog, most of these predictions are just a flip-flop between them. Not confident in these, but here they go anyway.
    NSFC predictions:

    Best Film: Drive My Car (spoiler: The Power of the Dog)

    Best Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car)

    Best Actor: Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (spoiler: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)

    Best Actress: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World)

    Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Masaki Okada, Drive My Car)

    Best Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Passing (spoiler: Toko Miura, Drive My Car)

    Best Screenplay: The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Drive My Car)

    Best Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, Tragedy of Macbeth (spoiler: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog)

    Best Foreign Language Film: Petite Maman (spoiler: Flee)

    Best Non-Fiction Film: Flee (spoiler: Summer of Soul)

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    JV
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    #1204701547

    Jane Campion movies always do well with NSFC. The Piano won Screenplay, Holly Hunter won for The Piano, Paul Schneider won for Bright Star, Barbara Hershey for The Portrait of a Lady, and Winslet was the runner up for Holy Smoke.

     

     

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204701570

    She is completing her trifecta ladies.

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    Lucas
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    #1204701632

    Reading the past recipients of their Actress award, they seem to prefer naturalistic performances (Colman won in 2018 tho). They also rewarded European contenders every time they could (Riva, Huppert, Cotillard, Rampling)

    So, probably Penelope Cruz, Renate Reinsve, Alana Haim and Tessa Thompson have the greatest shot here.

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    M
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    #1204701762

    Considering Haim has been doing well with some regionals, I would expect her to show up as a runner-up at least in one of the trifectas. So maybe this is the one.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204701978

    Jane Campion movies always do well with NSFC. The Piano won Screenplay, Holly Hunter won for The Piano, Paul Schneider won for Bright Star, Barbara Hershey for The Portrait of a Lady, and Winslet was the runner up for Holy Smoke.

     

    I forgot Schneider’s win here. A great performance in a terribly overlooked film Awards-wise.

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    M
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    #1204701990

    33% of NYFCC winners in the last 21 years also won NSFC. 35% for LAFCA.
    And for those who won both NYFCC and LAFCA, 83% of them completed their trifecta with NSFC (Stauton, Mirren, Hawkins, Blanchett and Huppert. Only Spacek in 2001 did not).

    So clearly there’s some serious influence from NYFCC and LAFCA. I think maybe because most NSFC members are from one of the other two trifectas. And considering Stewart was not a top contender in either, I’m starting to think she’s not happening. It’ll probably be Cruz’ to lose.

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    kaziz
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    #1204701998

    Lead Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Simon Rex, Hidetoshi Nishijima

    Lead Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tessa Thompson, Renate Reinsve

    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Vincent Lindon, Masaki Okada, Mike Faist

    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Jessie Buckley, Toko Miura

    They went the exact opposite way to LAFCA last year but same as NYFCC, but the Supporting Actress race seems the most splintered such that we get 3 different winners from the trifecta. Kathryn Hunter sure doesn’t exactly seem like an Amy Adams in The Master sort of winner of 2. Faist, Okada, Miura would not be surprising to me at all. I feel pretty darn confident about Smit-McPhee, but like with Simon Rex, I maybe wouldn’t be too surprised if Cumberbatch came runner-up instead of won. They’re pretty aware of their position as the last of the trifecta!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204702002

    33% of NYFCC winners in the last 21 years also won NSFC. 35% for LAFCA.

    Yeah this is why I’d probably say the only category without a probable repeat winner will be supporting actress which has been the most splintered thus far (and also: in splintered races, the trifecta tends to behave quite a bit like other biggish groups like NYFCO, BSFC, BOFCA, PFCC, CFCA, SEFCA which would perhaps indicate Negga, Dunst or Buckley).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    TomJerry
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    #1204702049

    If Penélope wins this then it’ll be phenomenal for her chances. That’ll almost be a Trifecta sweep.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204702221

    Waiting for Kodi to win the full trifecta here!

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    alittle03
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    #1204704324

    Changing my prediction from Reinsve to Cruz for the Actress win.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    veronikavoss
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    #1204704351

    Best Film:
    1. Drive My Car
    2. The Power of the Dog
    3. Licorice Pizza

    Best Director:
    1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    2. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
    3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

    Best Actor:
    1. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
    2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    3. Simon Rex, Red Rocket

    Best Actress:
    1. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    2. Jasna Djuricic, Quo vadis, Aida?
    3. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

    Best Supporting Actor:
    1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
    2. Anders Danielsen Lie, The Worst Person in the World
    3. Vincent Lindon, Titane

    Best Supporting Actress:
    1. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    3. Ruth Negga, Passing

    Best Screenplay:
    1. Licorice Pizza
    2. Drive My Car
    3. The Power of the Dog

    Best Cinematography:
    1. The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
    2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
    3. Passing (Eduard Grau)

    Best Foreign Language Film:
    1. Drive My Car
    2. Quo vadis, Aida?
    3. Petite Maman
    4 (if DMC is disqualified). The Worst Person in the World

    Best Non-Fiction Film:
    1. Flee
    2. Summer of Soul
    3. The Velvet Underground

    Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy could well get joint wins with DMC for Hamaguchi, and Wegner could be cited for Zola as well.

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    skyes
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    Jan 24th, 2021
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    #1204704389

    At what time will the results be announced?

    FYC, in all eligible categories:
    The Lost Daughter
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog

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