NSFC Predictions & Updates

[Atypical Joined: Dec 1st, 2011 Topics: 62 Posts: 4295 View Predictions]

#1204701422

Awards are on Saturday! What are your final predictions?

Last year’s major winners include:

Picture: “Nomadland”
Director: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Actor: Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods”
Actress: Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Supporting Actor: Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Screenplay: Eliza Hittman, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Cinematography: Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Foreign Language Film: “Collective” (Romania)
Non-Fiction Film: “Time”

Discuss.

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[alittle03 Joined: Sep 16th, 2020 Topics: 3 Posts: 1215 View Predictions]

#1204701476

So, knowing how much some members of NSFC loved Drive My Car and The Power of the Dog, most of these predictions are just a flip-flop between them. Not confident in these, but here they go anyway.
NSFC predictions:

Best Film: Drive My Car (spoiler: The Power of the Dog)

Best Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car)

Best Actor: Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (spoiler: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)

Best Actress: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World)

Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Masaki Okada, Drive My Car)

Best Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Passing (spoiler: Toko Miura, Drive My Car)

Best Screenplay: The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Drive My Car)

Best Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, Tragedy of Macbeth (spoiler: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog)

Best Foreign Language Film: Petite Maman (spoiler: Flee)

Best Non-Fiction Film: Flee (spoiler: Summer of Soul)

FYC -
Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 3211 View Predictions]

#1204701547

Jane Campion movies always do well with NSFC. The Piano won Screenplay, Holly Hunter won for The Piano, Paul Schneider won for Bright Star, Barbara Hershey for The Portrait of a Lady, and Winslet was the runner up for Holy Smoke.

 

 

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[ReginaIsKing Joined: Jul 3rd, 2020 Topics: 4 Posts: 701 View Predictions]

#1204701570

She is completing her trifecta ladies.

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[Lucas Joined: Jun 24th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1316 View Predictions]

#1204701632

Reading the past recipients of their Actress award, they seem to prefer naturalistic performances (Colman won in 2018 tho). They also rewarded European contenders every time they could (Riva, Huppert, Cotillard, Rampling)

So, probably Penelope Cruz, Renate Reinsve, Alana Haim and Tessa Thompson have the greatest shot here.

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[M Joined: Sep 27th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 3261 View Predictions]

#1204701762

Considering Haim has been doing well with some regionals, I would expect her to show up as a runner-up at least in one of the trifectas. So maybe this is the one.

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[OscarWatcher1971 Joined: Sep 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 565 View Predictions]

#1204701978

JV wrote:

Jane Campion movies always do well with NSFC. The Piano won Screenplay, Holly Hunter won for The Piano, Paul Schneider won for Bright Star, Barbara Hershey for The Portrait of a Lady, and Winslet was the runner up for Holy Smoke.

 

I forgot Schneider’s win here. A great performance in a terribly overlooked film Awards-wise.

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[M Joined: Sep 27th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 3261 View Predictions]

#1204701990

33% of NYFCC winners in the last 21 years also won NSFC. 35% for LAFCA.
And for those who won both NYFCC and LAFCA, 83% of them completed their trifecta with NSFC (Stauton, Mirren, Hawkins, Blanchett and Huppert. Only Spacek in 2001 did not).

So clearly there’s some serious influence from NYFCC and LAFCA. I think maybe because most NSFC members are from one of the other two trifectas. And considering Stewart was not a top contender in either, I’m starting to think she’s not happening. It’ll probably be Cruz’ to lose.

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[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4816 View Predictions]

#1204701998

Lead Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Simon Rex, Hidetoshi Nishijima

Lead Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tessa Thompson, Renate Reinsve

Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Vincent Lindon, Masaki Okada, Mike Faist

Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Jessie Buckley, Toko Miura

They went the exact opposite way to LAFCA last year but same as NYFCC, but the Supporting Actress race seems the most splintered such that we get 3 different winners from the trifecta. Kathryn Hunter sure doesn’t exactly seem like an Amy Adams in The Master sort of winner of 2. Faist, Okada, Miura would not be surprising to me at all. I feel pretty darn confident about Smit-McPhee, but like with Simon Rex, I maybe wouldn’t be too surprised if Cumberbatch came runner-up instead of won. They’re pretty aware of their position as the last of the trifecta!

FYC:
Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4816 View Predictions]

#1204702002

M wrote:

33% of NYFCC winners in the last 21 years also won NSFC. 35% for LAFCA.

Yeah this is why I’d probably say the only category without a probable repeat winner will be supporting actress which has been the most splintered thus far (and also: in splintered races, the trifecta tends to behave quite a bit like other biggish groups like NYFCO, BSFC, BOFCA, PFCC, CFCA, SEFCA which would perhaps indicate Negga, Dunst or Buckley).

FYC:
Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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[TomJerry Joined: Oct 4th, 2020 Topics: 13 Posts: 1812 View Predictions]

#1204702049

If Penélope wins this then it’ll be phenomenal for her chances. That’ll almost be a Trifecta sweep.

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[Stefania Joined: Feb 22nd, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 979 View Predictions]

#1204702221

Waiting for Kodi to win the full trifecta here!

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[alittle03 Joined: Sep 16th, 2020 Topics: 3 Posts: 1215 View Predictions]

#1204704324

Changing my prediction from Reinsve to Cruz for the Actress win.

FYC -
Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 623 View Predictions]

#1204704351

Best Film:
1. Drive My Car
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Licorice Pizza

Best Director:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actor:
1. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Simon Rex, Red Rocket

Best Actress:
1. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
2. Jasna Djuricic, Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Anders Danielsen Lie, The Worst Person in the World
3. Vincent Lindon, Titane

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Ruth Negga, Passing

Best Screenplay:
1. Licorice Pizza
2. Drive My Car
3. The Power of the Dog

Best Cinematography:
1. The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
3. Passing (Eduard Grau)

Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Drive My Car
2. Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Petite Maman
4 (if DMC is disqualified). The Worst Person in the World

Best Non-Fiction Film:
1. Flee
2. Summer of Soul
3. The Velvet Underground

Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy could well get joint wins with DMC for Hamaguchi, and Wegner could be cited for Zola as well.

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[skyes Joined: Jan 24th, 2021 Topics: 4 Posts: 232 View Predictions]

#1204704389

At what time will the results be announced?

FYC, in all eligible categories:
The Lost Daughter
Passing
The Power of the Dog

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