Within film marketing, there’s a term called the four-quadrant movie. It appeals to men and women AND over/under 25. This is more generally used for blockbusters, yet with some modification we can apply it to Oscars discussion. The average Oscars voter is older than the average moviegoer, so let’s raise the age of over/under to 40. We now have a new four quadrant to apply.
Q1: Men under 40
Q2: Women under 40
Q3: Men over 40
Q4: Women over 40
The questions are – what Oscars contenders will appeal to which of these quarters? Are there films that can reach consensus appeal in all four quarters? Are there any films that will struggle to reach any of these quarters? How much is Q3 going to go for The Irishman? Which sector is the most influential of these?
A film that I think could appeal highly to all quadrants is JoJo Rabbit, World War 2 and hopeful story for the old people, but a coming of age tale and Taika Waititi humor for the young people. I also think Scorsese is pretty universally loved by young and old people in Hollywood, so The Irishman, unless people like James Gunn and Joss Whedon are still mad about his superhero comments. In terms of the specific quadrants, movies with high appeal:
Q1: Men under 40: Joker, The Lighthouse, Queen & Slim, Parasite, Avengers: Endgame
Q2: Women under 40: The Farewell, Parasite, Queen & Slim, Little Women, Bombshell
Q3: Men over 40: 1917, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bombshell
Q4: Women over 40: Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell
I also think A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is going to have the most emotional appeal to the people who grew up watching Mr. Rogers as a kid, so nobody to old or young for that.