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Oscar contenders you think people are overestimating and underestimating

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    The Oscarguy
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    I did this thread last year and thought it would be fun to do it again. Regarding Oscar chances, which upcoming contenders from the fall festivals people are overestimating and which do you think is being underestimated?

    I’ll start

    Overestimated: Bardo & Empire of Light

    Underestimated: TÁR & White Noise

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    wolfali
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    Overestimated:

    Avatar : The Way of Water
    Babylon
    Bardo
    Blonde
    The Greatest Beer Run Ever
    Nope
    Triangle of Sadness
    The Whale

    Underestimated:

    Broker
    Cha Cha Real Smooth
    Decision to Leave
    Living
    She Said
    White Noise

    Kind of a bit of both:

    Black Panther : Wakanda Forever
    Glass Onion
    TAR
    Top Gun : Maverick

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1205035910

    Underestimated:

    Till
    TAR
    Living
    Decision to Leave
    The Greatest Beer Run Ever
    Mrs Harris Goes to Harris (in Costume Design)

    Overestimated:

    Bardo
    She Said

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    kamila
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    #1205035956

    Overestimated
    The Greatest Beer Run Ever
    Bardo
    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
    The Fabelmans (acting-wise)
    Babylon
    The Son (acting-wise outside of Jackman)

    Underestimated
    TAR (genuinely think it could have a BP shot)
    White Noise
    Decision to Leave
    The Banshees of Inisherin

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    wolfali
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    #1205035966

    TAR (genuinely think it could have a BP shot)

    I agree with this. A lot of the expectation has been that this film is Blanchett’s vehicle through and through but I think the potential narrative for a Todd Field comeback is being underestimated a bit (if the film itself is strong I think he has a shot at the Grand Jury prize at Venice).

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    kamila
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    #1205035981

    I agree with this. A lot of the expectation has been that this film is Blanchett’s vehicle through and through but I think the potential narrative for a Todd Field comeback is being underestimated a bit (if the film itself is strong I think he has a shot at the Grand Jury prize at Venice).

    I keep thinking about how Nightmare Alley got in last year. A big chunk of the films at the top of the BP predictions are all kind of populist or broad in some way. Even some of the known auteurs are going that route. Something that swings a bit more arthouse just feels missing from the lineup and TAR fits the bill.

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    Prince1
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    #1205035986

    Overestimated: 

    Babylon

    She said

    White Noise

    I Wanna Dance with Somebody (specifically Naomi Ackie)

     

    Underestimated:

    Til

    Elvis

    Glass Onion

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    ejaru1810
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    #1205035999

    Overstimated
    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Ackie)
    The Whale (Fraser)
    She Said
    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Underestimated
    Till (Deadwyler)
    Woman Talking
    TAR
    Elvis (this could get a Picture nomination)

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